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Monday, February 23, 2009

Sports - Mountaineers in "Lock" status?

WV had an easy win at Rutgers on Sunday, so at 19-8 (8-6), fans love to talk about their tourney status. Many people think in terms of Mark Schlabach's "Bubble Watch" http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch , either a team is a lock or it is still on the bubble. I have a hard time with the "lock" status, because I'm not sure what that means. It could me a) that the team would definitely be in if the season ended today or b) that the team is definitely in regardless of the results of the rest of their games. Anything else would be subjective - "as long as they win one more game, or two more games" and would seem to contradict the lock status. I don't see how it could be situation "a" because Mr. Schlabach would have many more teams in lock status if that was the view he was taking. It can't be "b" because he recently moved a team, Butler, out of lock status after they lost a couple of games. So, it's subjective to him. Apparently, to him, lock status just means that he's willing to bet the house that the team will make the tournament. Butler may leave him seeking shelter.

For me, I'll answer both situation "a" and "b" for the Mountaineers. "A" - yes they would certainly make it if the tournament started today, probably as about a 5 seed. As for "b", no they cannot simply show up to the remaining 4 regular season games and Big East tournament and expect to get a bid. There really are probably not that many teams that have entered that safe ground with a couple of weeks left in the season. If WV lost 5 straight, finished 19-13 (8-10), they would be out, no question about it. They would have lost to Cincy, South Florida, DePaul, Louisville, and likely a mediocre opponent in the first round of the BE tournmanet. So, we cannot breathe easy just yet. Of course I believe they will win at least two more games, which is probably all they need. I don't see how they would lose to DePaul, which means that they would need just one more. However, if they were to lose at Cincy and at South Florida this week, it would become dicey very quickly.

So, let's get a couple of road wins this week and truly lock this thing up this week 'eers! I'm sure Huggy Bear will have his team fired up to play at Cincy. Starters - be prepared to play the whole game even if you are up by 40.

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