West Virginia drew 11 seeded Dayton in Minnesota on Friday at 3pm. The thing that scares me the most about Dayton is that they don't scare me at all. It is the team that I was hoping they would draw, but there is the phrase "be careful what you wish for". It wasn't long ago that WV only had to beat Pittsburgh in a football game to advance to the national title game. The game was at home. They had crushed Pitt the previous two years. Pitt was a woeful 4-7 (2-4 in conference). How could you not love their chances? What worried me about that game was that there was little reason to worry yet so much on the line. This is the same thing to a lesser degree. WV should win the game. Dayton's best player, Chris Wright, is very good. However, he is a 6-8 power forward that WV should be able to handle, at least much better than Blair or some of the other Big East beasts. As an A-10 fan and proponent (due to the Spiders), I can say that I believe that the A-10 is overrated. Xavier is very weak at 4 and Dayton looks soft. Wright averages 13 ppg and Marcus Johnson averages 12, so there are no huge stars that should be able to take over the game. They have gone 3-3 in their last 6. West Virginia has handled inferior teams and this team is not as good as WV. Still, when they throw it up, especially on a neutral court at 3pm, anything can happen. I look for the Mountaineers to win handily. That confidence concerns me.
The second round, if the Mountaineers should beat Dayton, would likely be against Kansas. An opportunity to defeat the defending champions should provide plenty of inspiration. Will the Jayhawks play tight with their title on the line or will they play with confidence? I admit I don't know too much about the Jayhawks. They had a very nice season despite being in a "rebuilding" phase after winning the championship. The posted a 14-2 record in the Big 12, which is solid. Still, my gut instinct is that this would be a toss up game. I give the Mounties a decent shot at the sweet 16. If they should make it so far, I think that Michigan St., like any Big 10 team, is suspect. WV has the potential, if they play well, to roll into and Elite 8. That's where the journey would end, likely against Louisville. I think it's a favorable draw for WV. We'll see what they can do with it.
We will see how the freshmen and Ruoff handle the big stage. They did fine in the Big East tournament. Let's play into the second week Mounties!!!
Monday, March 16, 2009
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