For the vast majority of teams to make it to the Final 4 it takes luck and skill. This year it was required for all four teams. Here's a look at how they got here.
Michigan St. - the "luckiest" team in the tournament. Let's start with the fact that they have won 4 games by a combined 13 points. Only one game, Northern Iowa, did they win by more than one possession. Let's also consider their road to the Final 4. After a narrow victory in the first round, they faced what would be their toughest opponent. After a tremendous start by Michigan St., the Maryland Terrapins came storming back and looked like they had the game won until a backup hit a buzzer beating three to win it. Next they avoided Kansas, who almost assuredly would have thumped them, and played Northern Iowa instead. UNI used up all of their magical pixie dust against Kansas and the Spartans rolled. Next our fortunate Final 4 team avoided both Georgetown and Ohio St. to instead play Tennessee. Again the Spartans pulled it out the end against an opponent who was not all that strong. So, where's the skill? Well, I have to give credit to Michigan St. for hanging in there after losing their best player against Maryland. They handled Northern Iowa and gave themselves a chance against Tennessee and here they are. I think the odds are against them in the Final 4 and think they are the weakest team remaining, but the way this crazy tournament has gone that may be just where they need to be.
Butler - the team that has earned their spot more than any other team. The Bulldogs crushed UTEP in the first round, a team many experts picked to win that game. After beating the Racers in their "ugly" game of the tournament by just two, Butler had to play the 1 and 2 seeds to make it to the Final 4. They played well throughout and did not look inferior in any way. The road was tough, but so were the Bulldogs who I have been praising and calling my dark horse from the start. They even outrebounded was supposed to be a bigger more athletic Kansas St. team by 9. Hayward, Howard, and Mack are solid and I have been extremely impressed with Hayward in particular. He gives me a little Mike Gansey feel, except probably a little better and more rounded. So where's the luck? They did avoid Vanderbilt in the second round, which may have saved them considering how they played against Murray St. Then they played Syracuse without their big man, Onuaku. Finally, Xavier helped Butler out a little by taking Kansas St. to double overtime. I have trouble imagining these twenty year old beastly athletes being tired with a rest day in between, but the Wildcats did look a little sluggish. Perhaps the Bulldogs best fortune of the tournament comes next. They should have every opportunity to beat the Spartans if they play well. Should they get to the National Championship game, anything can happen.
West Virginia - the team that turns ugly into beautiful results. The Mountaineers have been a slow start team all year and they were again as they got down 10-0 to Morgan St. in the first round. They went on to hammer their opponents in that game. In the second round it was a solid performance as they slowed the fast paced Missouri Tigers down. Some good fortune came to the Mountaineers in the third round. First they avoided New Mexico. Secondly, Washington played completely awful. The Mountaineers turned it over 23 times and still won easily, which speak to the mess of a game that it was. They shot only 40% from the field and 27% from 3. With those turnovers and that shooting percentage a team really shouldn't win, particularly not by 13. It had to be different in the next round as West Virginia played Kentucky, the best team remaining in the tournament, didn't it? Well, yes and no. The Mountaineers did only turn it over 12 times, but the strength of the team, rebounding, was taking away. In the Washington game, WV outrebounded the Huskies by 16. Against Kentucky they were outrebounded by 11. That usually spells disaster for the Mountaineers. However, Kentucky couldn't shoot from outside and the Mountaineers, much to everyone’s surprise, were on fire from three in the first half. The Mountaineers were more methodical in the second half and earned some easy buckets, but they still finished at 44% from 3 versus Kentucky's 12%. That was the difference. Does West Virginia force teams to look ugly or do they just get lucky and catch teams on a bad day? Maybe a little of both. How long can it continue? It's going to be hard to outrebound Duke, so they will again have to win in some other way.
Duke - the team that was the biggest winner before the first tip. There was no question that Duke had the easiest draw when the brackets came out. Louisville could have been dangerous in the second round, but they were asleep in the first 10 minutes against Cal and could never recover. Cal offered little resistance. Purdue too was an easy match without Hummel. Duke was probably fortunate that somebody else, anybody else, didn't get through that section. Then, the only game that any other #1 seed would have had even a remote chance of losing had they had Duke's path was Baylor. As good as Baylor was considering their history, it still wasn't a top level team. However, Duke's best player, Singler had a terrible game. Baylor wins the game if they could have rebounded, which they could not. Part of that is a credit to Duke and part was because Baylor's big man fouled out and played little in the second half. I'll give Duke credit for handling each team without any of their games being all that close, but they should write a thank you letter to the selection committee. As they go forward they are the only #1 seed remaining and could easily wind up winning the tournament. However, should they have to go through West Virginia and Butler they will have to beat two teams better than any they have faced this tournament and each of those two teams has already beaten somebody better than Duke.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Friday, March 26, 2010
Sweet 16 - Day 2 Preview
The South bracket seems a fairly easy one to call, at least tonight's games. I've hammered on Purdue all tournament long, why stop now? I'll give the credit for making it to the Sweet 16 without Hummel in two close victories, but Duke will face another weak opponent on their trip to the Final 4. Duke should win. I hope the Boilermakers prove me wrong, but I doubt it. In the other game, I think St. Mary's run is up. I like the Gaels, but they've played a couple of teams weak inside and I think Baylor will handle them a little better. The Bears and Blue Devils should meet. Baylor is a pretty solid team, but Final 4 material? I don't know. I said at the beginning that the Blue Devils had an easy path through their bracket and it still looks that way to me.
Duke 53%
Baylor 34%
Purdue 8%
St. Mary's 5%
In the Midwest you would have had to be discouraged when the brackets came out if you were a Buckeye fan. You had to figure they would need to beat Georgetown and Kansas to get to the Final 4, which would seem unlikely even to an optimist. As it turns out the Buckeyes just need to beat Tennessee and either Michigan St. (without their best player) or Northern Iowa. How sweet is that? The Buckeyes are solid and are the favorite to make it through, but let's not forget they needed a buzzer beating heave against lowly Michigan in the Big 10 tournament, so let's not advance them so fast. I am not a fan of Rocky Top, so naturally I tend to not give them the credit they deserve. However I would take the winner of the Tennessee vs. Ohio St. game over either of the other two teams. I like the Buckeyes to beat Northern Iowa, who will keep the Cinderella shoes on for one more game. Here are my odds of going to the Final 4.
Ohio St. 39%
Tennessee 24%
Northern Iowa 20%
Michigan St. 17%
Duke 53%
Baylor 34%
Purdue 8%
St. Mary's 5%
In the Midwest you would have had to be discouraged when the brackets came out if you were a Buckeye fan. You had to figure they would need to beat Georgetown and Kansas to get to the Final 4, which would seem unlikely even to an optimist. As it turns out the Buckeyes just need to beat Tennessee and either Michigan St. (without their best player) or Northern Iowa. How sweet is that? The Buckeyes are solid and are the favorite to make it through, but let's not forget they needed a buzzer beating heave against lowly Michigan in the Big 10 tournament, so let's not advance them so fast. I am not a fan of Rocky Top, so naturally I tend to not give them the credit they deserve. However I would take the winner of the Tennessee vs. Ohio St. game over either of the other two teams. I like the Buckeyes to beat Northern Iowa, who will keep the Cinderella shoes on for one more game. Here are my odds of going to the Final 4.
Ohio St. 39%
Tennessee 24%
Northern Iowa 20%
Michigan St. 17%
Mountaineers/Bulldogs win
The West Virginia versus Washington game had to be one of the ugliest I have seen at the sweet 16 level. West Virginia had 23 turnovers and Washington 21. I don't know that Truck Bryant would have helped, but I don't know that he could have hurt. Ebanks had a whopping 8 turnovers. I've never been impressed with his ball handling. It would be effective but look ugly. Last night it was just ugly. He's a good passer if you get him within 25 feet of the bucket, but his dribbling could use some work. The Mountaineers won this game where they've won many before - on the glass. They outrebounded the Huskies 41-25 and turned that margin into 9 more shot attempts than Washington posted. The shooting percentages were nearly identical, so the extra attempts were important. I don't think the Mountaineers can do the same thing against Kentucky. They will not outrebound them by 16. I give the Mountaineers a shot, but they are going to have to shoot well. Kentucky is good. No matter the result on Saturday and no matter how ugly it's looked at times, a Mountaineer fan can't complain about the success they've had this year. They have consistently been ranked in the top 10, they won the Big East tournament, and they made it to an Elite 8. I heard Huggins say last night how much they have improved. He said that he told them throughout the year that they were the worst defensive team he had in ten or twelve years, but they have improved their defense greatly in the past month. I can't argue with any of that, Huggy Bear. They were bad and lately they've been much better on defense. Kentucky, however, will be a stiff test.
I say plenty of things that don't turn out to look to smart, so I would like to take this time to point you to previous posts concerning the Butler Bulldogs. I've pegged them as a dark horse from the beginning and wasn't surprised by their win last night. I give them a good shot against Kansas St. and even in the Final Four (should they make it) against Ohio St. or any of the other teams in that bracket remaining. I don't think they could pull off winning the whole thing should they face Kentucky, WV, or Duke, but they just might get there.
I say plenty of things that don't turn out to look to smart, so I would like to take this time to point you to previous posts concerning the Butler Bulldogs. I've pegged them as a dark horse from the beginning and wasn't surprised by their win last night. I give them a good shot against Kansas St. and even in the Final Four (should they make it) against Ohio St. or any of the other teams in that bracket remaining. I don't think they could pull off winning the whole thing should they face Kentucky, WV, or Duke, but they just might get there.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Sweet 16 preview - Day 1
The West is the one bracket where I picked all Sweet 16 teams correctly, so clearly I didn't see any surprises emerging from that region. Looking into the next round, I'd have to stick with the favorites, Syracuse and Kansas St. However, I really like Butler (as I've noted before) and Onuaku continues to be out, so I give the Bulldogs a decent shot. In the other game, I think Kansas St. is a good bit better than Xavier, but I'm still not sure how much I trust the Wildcats. In a head to head matchup between Kansas St. and Syracuse I'd have to call it a toss up. Since this bracket produced 4 solid, talented teams, it may be the most wide open bracket at this point. It's hard to pick a favorite and hard to dismiss any of the four teams. If I had to pick a team, I'm going to go with my Big East bias and give Syracuse a very slight edge. Here are my odds of a Final 4 trip:
Syracuse 34%
Kansas St. 33%
Butler 17%
Xavier 16%
The East still has its top 2 seeds, but an 11 and a 12 join them. Cornell isn't a huge shock to me. If they are hitting their threes they can be a very dangerous team. They didn't play particularly well down the stretch in the regular season, so I was surprised at how easily they won each of their first two tournament games. These were not down to the wire buzzer beater type games. The Big Red had it sown up early and did so in dominating fashion. They have their 7 footer inside to go with the Ivy League 3's and I think he differentiates this team from most pesky Ivy League teams. I haven't seen Washington play and gave the Pac 10 no respect coming into the tournament. However, the Left Coast has performed well and Washington keeps on rolling. After pulling out a close one against Marquette, the Huskies did surprise me by blowing out the Lobos. In the games today, Cornell has to be considered a fairly big underdog. Kentucky has looked very impressive and my have too much talent for the Big Red. West Virginia is actually the smallest favorite on the day. I think this is because most people, including me, don't know what to expect from Washington. Are they really that good? We will also see how the injury to Bryant affects the Mountaineers. Mazzulla is the more confident and better player at this point, so some would argue that this is a good thing. I wouldn't go that far. Mazzulla often gets into foul trouble in 20 minutes of playing time and he is now going to need to play 30+. Also, Washington's best player is their point guard, Isaiah Tomas. I think the Mountaineers will need Mazzulla on the floor most of the game, so hopefully he stays out of foul trouble. I'll go chalk in this bracket. If the Mountaineers and Wildcats do meet, I think Kentucky would have the edge, but don't count the Mountaineers out. They will fight their opponent all the way.
Kentucky 53%
WV 27%
Washington 13%
Cornell 7%
Syracuse 34%
Kansas St. 33%
Butler 17%
Xavier 16%
The East still has its top 2 seeds, but an 11 and a 12 join them. Cornell isn't a huge shock to me. If they are hitting their threes they can be a very dangerous team. They didn't play particularly well down the stretch in the regular season, so I was surprised at how easily they won each of their first two tournament games. These were not down to the wire buzzer beater type games. The Big Red had it sown up early and did so in dominating fashion. They have their 7 footer inside to go with the Ivy League 3's and I think he differentiates this team from most pesky Ivy League teams. I haven't seen Washington play and gave the Pac 10 no respect coming into the tournament. However, the Left Coast has performed well and Washington keeps on rolling. After pulling out a close one against Marquette, the Huskies did surprise me by blowing out the Lobos. In the games today, Cornell has to be considered a fairly big underdog. Kentucky has looked very impressive and my have too much talent for the Big Red. West Virginia is actually the smallest favorite on the day. I think this is because most people, including me, don't know what to expect from Washington. Are they really that good? We will also see how the injury to Bryant affects the Mountaineers. Mazzulla is the more confident and better player at this point, so some would argue that this is a good thing. I wouldn't go that far. Mazzulla often gets into foul trouble in 20 minutes of playing time and he is now going to need to play 30+. Also, Washington's best player is their point guard, Isaiah Tomas. I think the Mountaineers will need Mazzulla on the floor most of the game, so hopefully he stays out of foul trouble. I'll go chalk in this bracket. If the Mountaineers and Wildcats do meet, I think Kentucky would have the edge, but don't count the Mountaineers out. They will fight their opponent all the way.
Kentucky 53%
WV 27%
Washington 13%
Cornell 7%
Friday, March 19, 2010
Richmond/Big East stink it up
First let's deal with the Spiders. It was a good season. Third place in the regular season in the A-10, a trip to the conference championship, and a 7 seed in the NCAA tournament is a very nice year. So, let's give them the credit they deserve. As for yesterday, it was a poor effort. St. Mary's wanted it more and was much more physical and the Spiders were just beat up. Richmond's problem all year has been on the glass, but yesterday they took their weakness to new lows. At one point, the rebounding edge was 36-11. I don't think I've ever seen anything like that with two teams on the same level playing each other. The ball bounces into your hands 11 times. Anderson and Gonzalvez did their thing, but there was absolutely no support from the interior players. Gonzalvez led the team with 5 rebounds. That's sad that your guard is the only one strong enough to get a board. That's what they will miss most about him next year, his toughness. Justin Harper and Darrius Garrett have some presence inside, but they played a combined 34 minutes. Both should have been on the floor practically the whole game to help on the boards. Geriot just looks like he doesn't belong. He's slow, he can't jump and he's just not a factor. I felt bad for Anderson. As good as he is, he's under 6 feet tall and he can't control the boards. The Spiders didn't give him a chance yesterday. I would normally say St. Mary's has a great shot against Villanova, but top teams that have a first round scare generally bounce back well in the second round. Still, I think the difference between St. Mary's and Villanova is small, so it could be a good game.
Next, let's discuss the Big East's dismal performance. I am a huge Big East proponent and generally give them more credit than they deserve, but that was awful. It's not that they went 1-3, it's that they went 1-3 and were the favorite in each game, heavily in two of them, and looked bad doing it. Villanova struggled down the stretch, but Robert Morris? Seriously? Until overtime the only way Villanova could score was from the foul line. Notre Dame’s loss isn't surprising. I thought ODU had a great chance. ND plays low scoring close games that anybody can win. They ended up on the short end. It's that simple. Marquette was a bit disappointing because they really should have won that game, but they just couldn't get out of their own way down the stretch. Georgetown was a huge shock. They played fine offensively, but they lacked defensive intensity. I will say to the Hoyas defense that it was as well as Ohio could possibly play. Anything they threw up seemed to go in, whether it was a quality shot or not. Sometimes it's just your day. It was the Bobcats day. What does this mean for WV, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh? It's not good. I would be worried anyway, but yesterday's results have me even more concerned that today's game against Morgan St. might not be a blow out for the Mountaineers.
If I had to pick a team to watch for after yesterday's games it would be Butler. I liked them a lot coming into this tournament and thought they had a great chance to get to the Sweet 16. My concern was that everybody was hyping UTEP. The Bulldogs easily took care of them in a day of close games. I thought they were a good bit better than Vanderbilt if they met the Commodores in the second round, but Murray St. took them out first. Now it seems like an easy road to the Sweet 16 for the Bulldogs and if Syracuse is not healthy and ready to go, then look out. The Bulldogs could pull off the upset there and again in the next round to charge right into the Final 4.
Let’s hope today’s games go a little bit better than yesterday’s.
Next, let's discuss the Big East's dismal performance. I am a huge Big East proponent and generally give them more credit than they deserve, but that was awful. It's not that they went 1-3, it's that they went 1-3 and were the favorite in each game, heavily in two of them, and looked bad doing it. Villanova struggled down the stretch, but Robert Morris? Seriously? Until overtime the only way Villanova could score was from the foul line. Notre Dame’s loss isn't surprising. I thought ODU had a great chance. ND plays low scoring close games that anybody can win. They ended up on the short end. It's that simple. Marquette was a bit disappointing because they really should have won that game, but they just couldn't get out of their own way down the stretch. Georgetown was a huge shock. They played fine offensively, but they lacked defensive intensity. I will say to the Hoyas defense that it was as well as Ohio could possibly play. Anything they threw up seemed to go in, whether it was a quality shot or not. Sometimes it's just your day. It was the Bobcats day. What does this mean for WV, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh? It's not good. I would be worried anyway, but yesterday's results have me even more concerned that today's game against Morgan St. might not be a blow out for the Mountaineers.
If I had to pick a team to watch for after yesterday's games it would be Butler. I liked them a lot coming into this tournament and thought they had a great chance to get to the Sweet 16. My concern was that everybody was hyping UTEP. The Bulldogs easily took care of them in a day of close games. I thought they were a good bit better than Vanderbilt if they met the Commodores in the second round, but Murray St. took them out first. Now it seems like an easy road to the Sweet 16 for the Bulldogs and if Syracuse is not healthy and ready to go, then look out. The Bulldogs could pull off the upset there and again in the next round to charge right into the Final 4.
Let’s hope today’s games go a little bit better than yesterday’s.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
East and South Preview
East:
The Wildcats from Kentucky are the tournament's #2 overall. They certainly have the talent as the NBA will one day show. Are they hungry enough? Are they disciplined enough? Are they consistent enough? We'll find out. They have a potentially dangerous second round matchup with Texas who is also very talented but lost their way down the stretch. If they get to the Sweet 16 it is Wisconsin that could be dangerous. The Badgers are disciplined and their defense could frustrate the Wildcats. The Wildcats are still a strong favorite to emerge in the Elite 8, but the path isn't exactly a clear one. On the bottom half it is our beloved Mountaineers. The Mountaineers seem to love playing in nail biters, so any game could be lethal. Still I don't see Morgan St, Clemson, or Missouri as incredibly dangerous teams. If they do navigate those waters their opponent in the Sweet 16 will be interesting. Is New Mexico really that good? Assuming they get past Montana, they will face either Marquette of Washington. The Golden Eagles are another team who likes to play it close and if they could beat Washington, the game against the Lobos might be a dandy. Either way, the Mountaineers have to be the favorite to emerge to face the Wildcats. West Virginia wins by outmuscling people on the boards, Kentucky wins with talent. I'd give the edge to the talent. Here are this bracket's Final 4 odds:
Kentucky 42%
West Virginia 24%
New Mexico 12%
Wisconsin 10%
Marquette 4%
Temple 3%
Field 5%
South:
This is the puzzling bracket. If you were looking for me to give the odds to somebody other than a 1 seed it would have been in Duke's region. The Blue Devils haven't convinced me. Singler is a very tough matchup. He can score from anywhere in anyway. After that though, I'm not too impressed. If a team can find a way to contain him, Duke will once again be in NCAA tournament trouble. The problem is trying to find a really good team in this region. Louisville is dangerous in the second round and that potential matchup would have concerned if I were a Dukie. However, the Blue Devils caught a big break if they should make it to the Sweet 16. The best seed from the group that would contain their opponent is Purdue. Without Hummel however, I doubt the Boilermakers could win an NIT game. The only team to have any concern about from that grouping is Texas A&M. I admittedly don't know a whole lot about them, but if you want to pick a 12 or 13 to make it to the Sweet 16, which always seems to happen, I'd go with Utah St. or Siena, neither of which would give Duke any trouble. On the other half Villanova represents the slumping 2 seed that really should have been a 3 or maybe even a 4. I'd be a little surprised if they make it to the Elite 8. I'd give a slight edge to Baylor who is playing better. The problem is what do the Bears know about NCAA tournament success? Could they really make a deep tournament run? It's hard to believe. Perhaps Notre Dame will make a run out the South, or even ODU, Richmond, or St. Mary's. It's wide open. Take your pick. Perhaps it's Duke's year to have a good tournament. It's hard to find somebody else to pick. Here are my odds:
Duke 32%
Baylor 20%
Villanova 18%
Texas A&M 8%
Louisville 8%
Notre Dame 5%
Richmond 3%
Field 6%
The interesting thing to note here is that the top 2 teams in the Midwest and West have over a 70% chance of advancing combined; it's 66% in the East. Here in the wide open South it's a measly 52%. Ninth seeded Louisville even gets 8% love, which is more than any other team seeded below a 4 in any of the other regions. Perhaps I gave the Cardinals too much credit, but it seems like some upsets are brewing in this region and the Cardinals have the coach and experience to pull it off.
The Wildcats from Kentucky are the tournament's #2 overall. They certainly have the talent as the NBA will one day show. Are they hungry enough? Are they disciplined enough? Are they consistent enough? We'll find out. They have a potentially dangerous second round matchup with Texas who is also very talented but lost their way down the stretch. If they get to the Sweet 16 it is Wisconsin that could be dangerous. The Badgers are disciplined and their defense could frustrate the Wildcats. The Wildcats are still a strong favorite to emerge in the Elite 8, but the path isn't exactly a clear one. On the bottom half it is our beloved Mountaineers. The Mountaineers seem to love playing in nail biters, so any game could be lethal. Still I don't see Morgan St, Clemson, or Missouri as incredibly dangerous teams. If they do navigate those waters their opponent in the Sweet 16 will be interesting. Is New Mexico really that good? Assuming they get past Montana, they will face either Marquette of Washington. The Golden Eagles are another team who likes to play it close and if they could beat Washington, the game against the Lobos might be a dandy. Either way, the Mountaineers have to be the favorite to emerge to face the Wildcats. West Virginia wins by outmuscling people on the boards, Kentucky wins with talent. I'd give the edge to the talent. Here are this bracket's Final 4 odds:
Kentucky 42%
West Virginia 24%
New Mexico 12%
Wisconsin 10%
Marquette 4%
Temple 3%
Field 5%
South:
This is the puzzling bracket. If you were looking for me to give the odds to somebody other than a 1 seed it would have been in Duke's region. The Blue Devils haven't convinced me. Singler is a very tough matchup. He can score from anywhere in anyway. After that though, I'm not too impressed. If a team can find a way to contain him, Duke will once again be in NCAA tournament trouble. The problem is trying to find a really good team in this region. Louisville is dangerous in the second round and that potential matchup would have concerned if I were a Dukie. However, the Blue Devils caught a big break if they should make it to the Sweet 16. The best seed from the group that would contain their opponent is Purdue. Without Hummel however, I doubt the Boilermakers could win an NIT game. The only team to have any concern about from that grouping is Texas A&M. I admittedly don't know a whole lot about them, but if you want to pick a 12 or 13 to make it to the Sweet 16, which always seems to happen, I'd go with Utah St. or Siena, neither of which would give Duke any trouble. On the other half Villanova represents the slumping 2 seed that really should have been a 3 or maybe even a 4. I'd be a little surprised if they make it to the Elite 8. I'd give a slight edge to Baylor who is playing better. The problem is what do the Bears know about NCAA tournament success? Could they really make a deep tournament run? It's hard to believe. Perhaps Notre Dame will make a run out the South, or even ODU, Richmond, or St. Mary's. It's wide open. Take your pick. Perhaps it's Duke's year to have a good tournament. It's hard to find somebody else to pick. Here are my odds:
Duke 32%
Baylor 20%
Villanova 18%
Texas A&M 8%
Louisville 8%
Notre Dame 5%
Richmond 3%
Field 6%
The interesting thing to note here is that the top 2 teams in the Midwest and West have over a 70% chance of advancing combined; it's 66% in the East. Here in the wide open South it's a measly 52%. Ninth seeded Louisville even gets 8% love, which is more than any other team seeded below a 4 in any of the other regions. Perhaps I gave the Cardinals too much credit, but it seems like some upsets are brewing in this region and the Cardinals have the coach and experience to pull it off.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Midwest and West preview
Midwest:
It's hard to argue that Kansas is not the best team in the country. They are solid in all aspects of the game. The first two rounds should be a breeze before they likely face Michigan St. or Maryland. While both of those teams are potentially dangerous, Kansas would still be a comfortable favorite. So, Kansas has to be the strong favorite to come out of the top half of the draw. The bottom half is a little more interesting with Georgetown and Ohio St. potentially facing off in a huge Sweet 16 matchup. Georgetown should get by Ohio and the winner of the Tennessee/San Diego St game, a toss up in my opinion, and Ohio St. is just as likely to show up in the sweet 16 after beating UCSB and either Oklahoma St. or Georgia Tech. If the two should meet I'd have to give the edge to Georgetown as they looked to be coming into form down the stretch. Ohio St. may have won the Big 10 championship, but they didn't face any of the top teams and needed a miracle to beat a weak Michigan team. Either way, while both are solid teams that I respect and might pick to come out of the South had they been placed there, Kansas is going to be a tough out. The odds favor the Jayhawks. Here is how the DeHavenator round by round odds turned out for the chances of the following teams to get to the Final 4:
Kansas 50%
Georgetown 22%
Ohio St. 18%
Michigan St. 3%
Maryland 3%
Rest of Field 4%
West:
Syracuse is the lowest 1 seed and has a potential injury concern with their big man, Onuaku. This is a bracket where people like to get creative and tend to not give Syracuse much credit. I still think Syracuse has a good shot to get to the Final 4. Onuaku will take this week off most likely, but could come back for the following week against the more difficult teams. Could the winner of the Florida St./Gonzaga game give the Orange problems? Yes, but I expect Syracuse will emerge into the sweet 16. There they would face Vanderbilt, Butler (another team people seem to be picking against), UTEP, or Murray St. You would still have to give the edge to Syracuse against any of those teams. In the bottom half of the bracket, Kansas St. has been receiving big praises and has been a common choice to make the Final 4. Certainly they are a strong favorite in the 1st round and the 2nd round where they will meet either BYU or Florida. From there it would be either Pitt, a bit overrated in my estimation, Xavier, or Minnesota. All of these seem a bit overmatched against the Wildcats. So the odds would favor a Syracuse/Kansas St. final in the West. Who has the edge there? I still have to give a slight edge to the Orange. The zone can give people fits that haven't seen it and I'll trust that Onuaku will be healthy by that time. By giving the Orange the slight edge there combined with a little easier road to the Elite 8, I would still put Syracuse as the favorite. Here are the odds of the teams to make the Final 4:
Syracuse 43%
Kansas St. 30%
Pittsburgh 9%
Butler 5%
Vanderbilt 5%
Xavier 3%
Rest of Field 5%
If you compare the two brackets, the main thing to notice is that the West has two strong teams while the Midwest has three. Pitt doesn't seem to be much of a threat to me. This is what enables Kansas St. to have such a good chance in comparison to Georgetown or Ohio St. Not only would the Wildcats face Syracuse instead of Kansas in the Elite 8, but the opponent they would have to beat to get there is easier on paper. As many have said, the Midwest is a tough bracket.
It's hard to argue that Kansas is not the best team in the country. They are solid in all aspects of the game. The first two rounds should be a breeze before they likely face Michigan St. or Maryland. While both of those teams are potentially dangerous, Kansas would still be a comfortable favorite. So, Kansas has to be the strong favorite to come out of the top half of the draw. The bottom half is a little more interesting with Georgetown and Ohio St. potentially facing off in a huge Sweet 16 matchup. Georgetown should get by Ohio and the winner of the Tennessee/San Diego St game, a toss up in my opinion, and Ohio St. is just as likely to show up in the sweet 16 after beating UCSB and either Oklahoma St. or Georgia Tech. If the two should meet I'd have to give the edge to Georgetown as they looked to be coming into form down the stretch. Ohio St. may have won the Big 10 championship, but they didn't face any of the top teams and needed a miracle to beat a weak Michigan team. Either way, while both are solid teams that I respect and might pick to come out of the South had they been placed there, Kansas is going to be a tough out. The odds favor the Jayhawks. Here is how the DeHavenator round by round odds turned out for the chances of the following teams to get to the Final 4:
Kansas 50%
Georgetown 22%
Ohio St. 18%
Michigan St. 3%
Maryland 3%
Rest of Field 4%
West:
Syracuse is the lowest 1 seed and has a potential injury concern with their big man, Onuaku. This is a bracket where people like to get creative and tend to not give Syracuse much credit. I still think Syracuse has a good shot to get to the Final 4. Onuaku will take this week off most likely, but could come back for the following week against the more difficult teams. Could the winner of the Florida St./Gonzaga game give the Orange problems? Yes, but I expect Syracuse will emerge into the sweet 16. There they would face Vanderbilt, Butler (another team people seem to be picking against), UTEP, or Murray St. You would still have to give the edge to Syracuse against any of those teams. In the bottom half of the bracket, Kansas St. has been receiving big praises and has been a common choice to make the Final 4. Certainly they are a strong favorite in the 1st round and the 2nd round where they will meet either BYU or Florida. From there it would be either Pitt, a bit overrated in my estimation, Xavier, or Minnesota. All of these seem a bit overmatched against the Wildcats. So the odds would favor a Syracuse/Kansas St. final in the West. Who has the edge there? I still have to give a slight edge to the Orange. The zone can give people fits that haven't seen it and I'll trust that Onuaku will be healthy by that time. By giving the Orange the slight edge there combined with a little easier road to the Elite 8, I would still put Syracuse as the favorite. Here are the odds of the teams to make the Final 4:
Syracuse 43%
Kansas St. 30%
Pittsburgh 9%
Butler 5%
Vanderbilt 5%
Xavier 3%
Rest of Field 5%
If you compare the two brackets, the main thing to notice is that the West has two strong teams while the Midwest has three. Pitt doesn't seem to be much of a threat to me. This is what enables Kansas St. to have such a good chance in comparison to Georgetown or Ohio St. Not only would the Wildcats face Syracuse instead of Kansas in the Elite 8, but the opponent they would have to beat to get there is easier on paper. As many have said, the Midwest is a tough bracket.
Monday, March 15, 2010
NCAA tourney preview
The Mountaineers won their first ever Big East Championship!!!! I didn't see it as I was in the emergency room recovering from anaphylactic shock, but I'm sure it was great. Actually, I did record it and watched the final 4 minutes with my Mountaineer crazed friend Ryan while in a Benadryl induced hazed. He stood and cheered and pumped his fist, while I sat and watched with a glaze over my eyes and drool probably protruding from one side of my mouth. It could have been more enjoyable, but it still is a championship that can never be taken a way. So, in that way, the season has been a success no matter what happens in the NCAA tournament. The Spiders came close to accomplishing the same feat on Sunday. Unless I missed something, it was not on tv, which was a big disappointment. Still, as a 7 seed, UR has been give a chance to do some things in the NCAA's. Let's evaluate the committee's final product.
I can't complain too much about who was selected or where they were seeded. Sure you could argue some spots here and there, but nothing jumped out at me as being ridiculous. Perhaps Florida not only getting in but getting a 10 seed was the most perplexing. I did very much enjoy the committee once again snubbing the Hokies. Seth Greenberg should be on a suicide watch. He was convinced there was no way they would be left out this year. Maybe they shouldn't have been, but sorry Hokies, you're out! Next year trying scheduling somebody in your non-conference schedule and beating them. My issue was how the brackets unfolded for the top 4 seeds. The overall #1 was Kansas, followed by Kentucky, then Duke, then Syracuse. Duke getting the overall #3 is very questionable considering how down the ACC was this year. Also, how much credit can you give them for winning the ACC tournament when they didn't beat anybody? They beat two teams who were no where near the bubble and then a 10 seed bubble team. That's nothing impressive. I question if they should have even been a #1 seed at all. Still, I can accept a #1 for Duke. Here's what I don't understand, I thought that having the overall #1 would give you the worst #2 seed, and the lowest #1 would play the highest #2. What's the point of differentiating the #1's if the best doesn't get the easiest road? Look at the 2's, the easiest is Villanova by a mile, particularly the way they played down the stretch. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest are WV and Ohio St., who are in the top 2 seeded teams' brackets. WV should have been in Duke's (can't be in Syracuse because both are Big East) and Ohio St. in Syracuse. Next we go to the 3 seeds. The easiest, in my opinion is Baylor. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest would be Georgetown again in the #1 overall seed's bracket. Let's go to the 4 seeds. The easiest by two miles is Purdue after they lost Hummel. Siena, the 13, may be favored in that game. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest in my opinion are Wisconsin and Maryland in the top two seeded teams' bracket. The point is that on paper, Duke has by far the easiest road to the Final 4 while being the weakest #1 and the two strongest #1's (KU and UK) have the hardest roads and I'll even say that the overall #1 has the hardest. The committee did Kansas no favors by putting Mich St., Maryland, Georgetown, and Ohio St. in their bracket. The Duke bracket is so bad that I'm going to go ahead and call it wide open. If you want upsets, look to this bracket. The Spiders could come out of this bracket since it's so weak. The one thing that the committee did to Duke that was not friendly was the possible second round matchup against Louisville. As a #9 seed, I honestly think that is the toughest matchup for Duke in the whole bracket. In fact, in my initial picks, I have Louisville in the Final 4. Am I comfortable with that? Of course not. Louisville isn't all that consistent and just lost Cincinnati, but I don't see a team in that bracket that's Final 4 material. This is probably the year that Duke's drought ends. The committee sure did its part to see that it does.
As for the Mountaineers' draw, I wish they were in Duke's bracket instead of Kentucky's, but if they get that far I won't have much to complain about. Neither Clemson nor Missouri particularly scares me, although the way WV plays everyone close even Morgan St. could have a shot against them. If they get to the sweet 16 it will be either New Mexico or Marquette most likely. I think WV could hang with either of those teams. So, it's not a bad draw for the Mountaineers. The question is when will their luck run out. They won their three Big East tournament games by a combined 7 points. Sooner or later those end of the game bounces are going to against them if they insist on playing it down to the wire every time.
The Spiders drew a tough 1st round opponent in St. Mary's. They are tough inside where the Spiders are not. I'm not sure the Spiders can get past them and into the second round, but if they do they will face a reeling Villanova team that is also guard oriented like the Spiders. I think the Spiders could have a chance in that one. If they did pull off an upset and reach the sweet 16, there wouldn't be any dominating team waiting for them. It could be Baylor, Notre Dame, or ODU. I see no reason the Spiders couldn't hang with any of those teams. Then on to the Elite 8 where it could be Duke, but it could also be any number of other teams. It could be Utah St. My take on the Spider bracket is this - they have a tough 1st round matchup, but there isn't anyone in the whole bracket, with the possible exception of Duke because of the size of Singler and some of their interior players, that the Spiders couldn't hang with. There is the chance for something special here. But first they have to get past St. Mary's.
I can't complain too much about who was selected or where they were seeded. Sure you could argue some spots here and there, but nothing jumped out at me as being ridiculous. Perhaps Florida not only getting in but getting a 10 seed was the most perplexing. I did very much enjoy the committee once again snubbing the Hokies. Seth Greenberg should be on a suicide watch. He was convinced there was no way they would be left out this year. Maybe they shouldn't have been, but sorry Hokies, you're out! Next year trying scheduling somebody in your non-conference schedule and beating them. My issue was how the brackets unfolded for the top 4 seeds. The overall #1 was Kansas, followed by Kentucky, then Duke, then Syracuse. Duke getting the overall #3 is very questionable considering how down the ACC was this year. Also, how much credit can you give them for winning the ACC tournament when they didn't beat anybody? They beat two teams who were no where near the bubble and then a 10 seed bubble team. That's nothing impressive. I question if they should have even been a #1 seed at all. Still, I can accept a #1 for Duke. Here's what I don't understand, I thought that having the overall #1 would give you the worst #2 seed, and the lowest #1 would play the highest #2. What's the point of differentiating the #1's if the best doesn't get the easiest road? Look at the 2's, the easiest is Villanova by a mile, particularly the way they played down the stretch. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest are WV and Ohio St., who are in the top 2 seeded teams' brackets. WV should have been in Duke's (can't be in Syracuse because both are Big East) and Ohio St. in Syracuse. Next we go to the 3 seeds. The easiest, in my opinion is Baylor. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest would be Georgetown again in the #1 overall seed's bracket. Let's go to the 4 seeds. The easiest by two miles is Purdue after they lost Hummel. Siena, the 13, may be favored in that game. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest in my opinion are Wisconsin and Maryland in the top two seeded teams' bracket. The point is that on paper, Duke has by far the easiest road to the Final 4 while being the weakest #1 and the two strongest #1's (KU and UK) have the hardest roads and I'll even say that the overall #1 has the hardest. The committee did Kansas no favors by putting Mich St., Maryland, Georgetown, and Ohio St. in their bracket. The Duke bracket is so bad that I'm going to go ahead and call it wide open. If you want upsets, look to this bracket. The Spiders could come out of this bracket since it's so weak. The one thing that the committee did to Duke that was not friendly was the possible second round matchup against Louisville. As a #9 seed, I honestly think that is the toughest matchup for Duke in the whole bracket. In fact, in my initial picks, I have Louisville in the Final 4. Am I comfortable with that? Of course not. Louisville isn't all that consistent and just lost Cincinnati, but I don't see a team in that bracket that's Final 4 material. This is probably the year that Duke's drought ends. The committee sure did its part to see that it does.
As for the Mountaineers' draw, I wish they were in Duke's bracket instead of Kentucky's, but if they get that far I won't have much to complain about. Neither Clemson nor Missouri particularly scares me, although the way WV plays everyone close even Morgan St. could have a shot against them. If they get to the sweet 16 it will be either New Mexico or Marquette most likely. I think WV could hang with either of those teams. So, it's not a bad draw for the Mountaineers. The question is when will their luck run out. They won their three Big East tournament games by a combined 7 points. Sooner or later those end of the game bounces are going to against them if they insist on playing it down to the wire every time.
The Spiders drew a tough 1st round opponent in St. Mary's. They are tough inside where the Spiders are not. I'm not sure the Spiders can get past them and into the second round, but if they do they will face a reeling Villanova team that is also guard oriented like the Spiders. I think the Spiders could have a chance in that one. If they did pull off an upset and reach the sweet 16, there wouldn't be any dominating team waiting for them. It could be Baylor, Notre Dame, or ODU. I see no reason the Spiders couldn't hang with any of those teams. Then on to the Elite 8 where it could be Duke, but it could also be any number of other teams. It could be Utah St. My take on the Spider bracket is this - they have a tough 1st round matchup, but there isn't anyone in the whole bracket, with the possible exception of Duke because of the size of Singler and some of their interior players, that the Spiders couldn't hang with. There is the chance for something special here. But first they have to get past St. Mary's.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Off glass - on to semis
The Mountaineers move on while all the other top 4 seeds lost in the Big East tournament. Of course the Mountainners were far from spectacular. After a sizzling 18-4 start, the Bearcats beat them up. Only 54 points against Cincinnati along with no answer for Lance Stephenson when he decided to drive showed the weaknesses of this team. Against Cincinnati Butler and Jones actually had pretty decent games, which generally means success for the Mountaineers, but Ebanks and Bryant were awful, combining to go 4-23. I've heard many people say it and it continues to be true, for a team so highly ranked, the Mountaineers are hard to watch. It's just ugly.
On a separate note, as Johnnie West hit the 3 at then end of regulation and was on the court for the end of the game, it got me wondering why he doesn't play more if Huggins thinks he is one of the top 5 offensive players, even coming off the bench ice cold. Compare him to Casey Mitchell who gets some significant minutes in certain games. Mitchell is in the game to shoot, but apparently they have more confidence in West ability to shoot (West 42% from 3, Mitchell 31%). It is obvious Huggins doesn't have much confidence in West's defensive performance, but have you seen Mitchell play defense? Ugh. Honestly, I'd take West's toughness and effort over Mitchell's avoid contact playing style on the defensive end. I also think West is more confident with the ball and thus a better ball handler (West 5 assts 0 turnovers, Mitchell 9 assts 9 turnovers). He's smarter on the court too. Mitchell was supposed to be a starter because he was a great JuCo scorer, but that hasn't worked out. He can't drive at this level, so he's just a sharp shooter and if I'm looking for a sharp shooter to pull from WV's bench, I'll go with West. I see no advantage to having Mitchell in the game over West. Mitchell may have more talent, but talent alone doesn't get the job done.
The Mountaineers still have an open road to their first Big East tournament championship with Notre Dame next and the winner to play either Georgetown or Marquette. Normally I might think it would be good to lose in a conference tournament to get rested and hungry for the NCAA's. However, I just don't have the confidence in a deep WV run no matter what they do, so if they could win their first Big East tournament it would be something special to remember about the season. As for the ND game, when you looked at unranked 7th seeded ND vs #6 nationally WV, who do you think is the better team right now? It's hard for me to say WV. They have the better resume no doubt, but I might have to take my chances against WV instead of ND if I was an opposing team, particularly the way ND has played of late. I'll be interested to see the odds, but I bet the line will be very close. The Mountaineers keep being reinforced that they are doing good things on the court by winning in strange ways, but it will catch up to them sooner or later. Last night they needed a very bad turnover by Cincinnati and a miracle banked in 3 by Butler at the buzzer to win in regulation (the Mountaineers would have had overtime if the shot had not gone in). I kind of felt bad for Cincinnati to lose like that, but onward we go with the Mountaineers. Let's get a good lick in on the Irish before they bolt for the Big 10 here in a couple of years. Good riddance.
On a separate note, as Johnnie West hit the 3 at then end of regulation and was on the court for the end of the game, it got me wondering why he doesn't play more if Huggins thinks he is one of the top 5 offensive players, even coming off the bench ice cold. Compare him to Casey Mitchell who gets some significant minutes in certain games. Mitchell is in the game to shoot, but apparently they have more confidence in West ability to shoot (West 42% from 3, Mitchell 31%). It is obvious Huggins doesn't have much confidence in West's defensive performance, but have you seen Mitchell play defense? Ugh. Honestly, I'd take West's toughness and effort over Mitchell's avoid contact playing style on the defensive end. I also think West is more confident with the ball and thus a better ball handler (West 5 assts 0 turnovers, Mitchell 9 assts 9 turnovers). He's smarter on the court too. Mitchell was supposed to be a starter because he was a great JuCo scorer, but that hasn't worked out. He can't drive at this level, so he's just a sharp shooter and if I'm looking for a sharp shooter to pull from WV's bench, I'll go with West. I see no advantage to having Mitchell in the game over West. Mitchell may have more talent, but talent alone doesn't get the job done.
The Mountaineers still have an open road to their first Big East tournament championship with Notre Dame next and the winner to play either Georgetown or Marquette. Normally I might think it would be good to lose in a conference tournament to get rested and hungry for the NCAA's. However, I just don't have the confidence in a deep WV run no matter what they do, so if they could win their first Big East tournament it would be something special to remember about the season. As for the ND game, when you looked at unranked 7th seeded ND vs #6 nationally WV, who do you think is the better team right now? It's hard for me to say WV. They have the better resume no doubt, but I might have to take my chances against WV instead of ND if I was an opposing team, particularly the way ND has played of late. I'll be interested to see the odds, but I bet the line will be very close. The Mountaineers keep being reinforced that they are doing good things on the court by winning in strange ways, but it will catch up to them sooner or later. Last night they needed a very bad turnover by Cincinnati and a miracle banked in 3 by Butler at the buzzer to win in regulation (the Mountaineers would have had overtime if the shot had not gone in). I kind of felt bad for Cincinnati to lose like that, but onward we go with the Mountaineers. Let's get a good lick in on the Irish before they bolt for the Big 10 here in a couple of years. Good riddance.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Mountaineers Big East tourney preview
When people start talking about "fate" and "destiny" for a team it usually means that they've enjoyed more success than they should and their fans believe the trend will continue. It mostly ends in a rude awakening (it reminds me of my Chargers lone Super Bowl appearance, a blow out loss to the 49ers). So, I won't go there. However, the Mountaineers have seemed to experience good fortune this year. Whether it's winning close games, having a team's best player sit out due to diabetes or being the only bye team who gets to face a double digit seeded opponent, chance has shone brightly on the Mountaineers this year. I like the Mountaineers chances much better against Cincinnati than the zone playing Louisville Cardinals. Huggins has had some struggles against his former team, but if the Mountaineers are the real deal, they should take care of the Bearcats. In the semifinals they could draw an overachieving and overrated Pitt team. The Mounties handled them fairly easily in Morgantown and had them beat in Pittsburgh until a big end of the game let down. I would like their chances there. That is of course if ND doesn't beat Pitt first, which could happen. Even if it did, it would be ND's 3rd game in 3 days and Harangody may begin to tire after coming back from injury. Also, WV would have a little revenge to seek against ND after losing to them in the regular season. So, despite my being hard on this team and continually saying the Mountaineers are overrated, I am going to pick them to make the finals of the Big East tournament. Crazy! If they meet Syracuse, they lose. Otherwise, a Marquette, Villanova, or Georgetown matchup isn't so bad. The team after Syracuse that scared me the most for West Virginia was Louisville, and they were fortunate enough to avoid them. Remember Louisville had them beat in Morgantown until a late game switch to a 1-3-1 defense confounded the Cardinals. I imagine that wouldn't happen again. Now that they have a little clearer path to the finals, it's time to take advantage. A Big East championship could land a #1 seed for the Mounties. Let's go Mountaineers!!!!!
Monday, March 8, 2010
Projections 3/8
DeHaven Projections through 2/18 games (assumes cutoff for at large bids will be two #12 seeds):
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2's Villanova, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St
3's Pittsburgh, Ohio St., BYU, New Mexico
4's Temple, Baylor, Maryland, Wisconsin
5's Michigan St., Gonzaga, Georgetown, Xavier
6's Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Butler, Texas A&M
7's Texas, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Richmond
8's Oklahoma St., Florida St., Louisville, Marquette
9's California, UTEP, Clemson, Notre Dame,
10's Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, UNLV, Wake Forest
11's Florida, Old Dominion, Cornell, Utah St.
12's San Diego St., Seton Hall, Sienna (auto)
On the verge (in order): Georgia Tech, Arizona St., Washington, Memphis, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Illinois, Dayton, Mississippi St., UAB
Big East: 9
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big 10: 4
SEC: 4
MWC: 4
A10: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 6
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2's Villanova, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St
3's Pittsburgh, Ohio St., BYU, New Mexico
4's Temple, Baylor, Maryland, Wisconsin
5's Michigan St., Gonzaga, Georgetown, Xavier
6's Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Butler, Texas A&M
7's Texas, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Richmond
8's Oklahoma St., Florida St., Louisville, Marquette
9's California, UTEP, Clemson, Notre Dame,
10's Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, UNLV, Wake Forest
11's Florida, Old Dominion, Cornell, Utah St.
12's San Diego St., Seton Hall, Sienna (auto)
On the verge (in order): Georgia Tech, Arizona St., Washington, Memphis, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Illinois, Dayton, Mississippi St., UAB
Big East: 9
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big 10: 4
SEC: 4
MWC: 4
A10: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 6
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