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Monday, March 15, 2010

NCAA tourney preview

The Mountaineers won their first ever Big East Championship!!!! I didn't see it as I was in the emergency room recovering from anaphylactic shock, but I'm sure it was great. Actually, I did record it and watched the final 4 minutes with my Mountaineer crazed friend Ryan while in a Benadryl induced hazed. He stood and cheered and pumped his fist, while I sat and watched with a glaze over my eyes and drool probably protruding from one side of my mouth. It could have been more enjoyable, but it still is a championship that can never be taken a way. So, in that way, the season has been a success no matter what happens in the NCAA tournament. The Spiders came close to accomplishing the same feat on Sunday. Unless I missed something, it was not on tv, which was a big disappointment. Still, as a 7 seed, UR has been give a chance to do some things in the NCAA's. Let's evaluate the committee's final product.

I can't complain too much about who was selected or where they were seeded. Sure you could argue some spots here and there, but nothing jumped out at me as being ridiculous. Perhaps Florida not only getting in but getting a 10 seed was the most perplexing. I did very much enjoy the committee once again snubbing the Hokies. Seth Greenberg should be on a suicide watch. He was convinced there was no way they would be left out this year. Maybe they shouldn't have been, but sorry Hokies, you're out! Next year trying scheduling somebody in your non-conference schedule and beating them. My issue was how the brackets unfolded for the top 4 seeds. The overall #1 was Kansas, followed by Kentucky, then Duke, then Syracuse. Duke getting the overall #3 is very questionable considering how down the ACC was this year. Also, how much credit can you give them for winning the ACC tournament when they didn't beat anybody? They beat two teams who were no where near the bubble and then a 10 seed bubble team. That's nothing impressive. I question if they should have even been a #1 seed at all. Still, I can accept a #1 for Duke. Here's what I don't understand, I thought that having the overall #1 would give you the worst #2 seed, and the lowest #1 would play the highest #2. What's the point of differentiating the #1's if the best doesn't get the easiest road? Look at the 2's, the easiest is Villanova by a mile, particularly the way they played down the stretch. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest are WV and Ohio St., who are in the top 2 seeded teams' brackets. WV should have been in Duke's (can't be in Syracuse because both are Big East) and Ohio St. in Syracuse. Next we go to the 3 seeds. The easiest, in my opinion is Baylor. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest would be Georgetown again in the #1 overall seed's bracket. Let's go to the 4 seeds. The easiest by two miles is Purdue after they lost Hummel. Siena, the 13, may be favored in that game. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest in my opinion are Wisconsin and Maryland in the top two seeded teams' bracket. The point is that on paper, Duke has by far the easiest road to the Final 4 while being the weakest #1 and the two strongest #1's (KU and UK) have the hardest roads and I'll even say that the overall #1 has the hardest. The committee did Kansas no favors by putting Mich St., Maryland, Georgetown, and Ohio St. in their bracket. The Duke bracket is so bad that I'm going to go ahead and call it wide open. If you want upsets, look to this bracket. The Spiders could come out of this bracket since it's so weak. The one thing that the committee did to Duke that was not friendly was the possible second round matchup against Louisville. As a #9 seed, I honestly think that is the toughest matchup for Duke in the whole bracket. In fact, in my initial picks, I have Louisville in the Final 4. Am I comfortable with that? Of course not. Louisville isn't all that consistent and just lost Cincinnati, but I don't see a team in that bracket that's Final 4 material. This is probably the year that Duke's drought ends. The committee sure did its part to see that it does.

As for the Mountaineers' draw, I wish they were in Duke's bracket instead of Kentucky's, but if they get that far I won't have much to complain about. Neither Clemson nor Missouri particularly scares me, although the way WV plays everyone close even Morgan St. could have a shot against them. If they get to the sweet 16 it will be either New Mexico or Marquette most likely. I think WV could hang with either of those teams. So, it's not a bad draw for the Mountaineers. The question is when will their luck run out. They won their three Big East tournament games by a combined 7 points. Sooner or later those end of the game bounces are going to against them if they insist on playing it down to the wire every time.

The Spiders drew a tough 1st round opponent in St. Mary's. They are tough inside where the Spiders are not. I'm not sure the Spiders can get past them and into the second round, but if they do they will face a reeling Villanova team that is also guard oriented like the Spiders. I think the Spiders could have a chance in that one. If they did pull off an upset and reach the sweet 16, there wouldn't be any dominating team waiting for them. It could be Baylor, Notre Dame, or ODU. I see no reason the Spiders couldn't hang with any of those teams. Then on to the Elite 8 where it could be Duke, but it could also be any number of other teams. It could be Utah St. My take on the Spider bracket is this - they have a tough 1st round matchup, but there isn't anyone in the whole bracket, with the possible exception of Duke because of the size of Singler and some of their interior players, that the Spiders couldn't hang with. There is the chance for something special here. But first they have to get past St. Mary's.

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