Final 4 Fortune

For the vast majority of teams to make it to the Final 4 it takes luck and skill. This year it was required for all four teams. Here's a look at how they got here.

Michigan St. - the "luckiest" team in the tournament. Let's start with the fact that they have won 4 games by a combined 13 points. Only one game, Northern Iowa, did they win by more than one possession. Let's also consider their road to the Final 4. After a narrow victory in the first round, they faced what would be their toughest opponent. After a tremendous start by Michigan St., the Maryland Terrapins came storming back and looked like they had the game won until a backup hit a buzzer beating three to win it. Next they avoided Kansas, who almost assuredly would have thumped them, and played Northern Iowa instead. UNI used up all of their magical pixie dust against Kansas and the Spartans rolled. Next our fortunate Final 4 team avoided both Georgetown and Ohio St. to instead play Tennessee. Again the Spartans pulled it out the end against an opponent who was not all that strong. So, where's the skill? Well, I have to give credit to Michigan St. for hanging in there after losing their best player against Maryland. They handled Northern Iowa and gave themselves a chance against Tennessee and here they are. I think the odds are against them in the Final 4 and think they are the weakest team remaining, but the way this crazy tournament has gone that may be just where they need to be.

Butler - the team that has earned their spot more than any other team. The Bulldogs crushed UTEP in the first round, a team many experts picked to win that game. After beating the Racers in their "ugly" game of the tournament by just two, Butler had to play the 1 and 2 seeds to make it to the Final 4. They played well throughout and did not look inferior in any way. The road was tough, but so were the Bulldogs who I have been praising and calling my dark horse from the start. They even outrebounded was supposed to be a bigger more athletic Kansas St. team by 9. Hayward, Howard, and Mack are solid and I have been extremely impressed with Hayward in particular. He gives me a little Mike Gansey feel, except probably a little better and more rounded. So where's the luck? They did avoid Vanderbilt in the second round, which may have saved them considering how they played against Murray St. Then they played Syracuse without their big man, Onuaku. Finally, Xavier helped Butler out a little by taking Kansas St. to double overtime. I have trouble imagining these twenty year old beastly athletes being tired with a rest day in between, but the Wildcats did look a little sluggish. Perhaps the Bulldogs best fortune of the tournament comes next. They should have every opportunity to beat the Spartans if they play well. Should they get to the National Championship game, anything can happen.

West Virginia - the team that turns ugly into beautiful results. The Mountaineers have been a slow start team all year and they were again as they got down 10-0 to Morgan St. in the first round. They went on to hammer their opponents in that game. In the second round it was a solid performance as they slowed the fast paced Missouri Tigers down. Some good fortune came to the Mountaineers in the third round. First they avoided New Mexico. Secondly, Washington played completely awful. The Mountaineers turned it over 23 times and still won easily, which speak to the mess of a game that it was. They shot only 40% from the field and 27% from 3. With those turnovers and that shooting percentage a team really shouldn't win, particularly not by 13. It had to be different in the next round as West Virginia played Kentucky, the best team remaining in the tournament, didn't it? Well, yes and no. The Mountaineers did only turn it over 12 times, but the strength of the team, rebounding, was taking away. In the Washington game, WV outrebounded the Huskies by 16. Against Kentucky they were outrebounded by 11. That usually spells disaster for the Mountaineers. However, Kentucky couldn't shoot from outside and the Mountaineers, much to everyone’s surprise, were on fire from three in the first half. The Mountaineers were more methodical in the second half and earned some easy buckets, but they still finished at 44% from 3 versus Kentucky's 12%. That was the difference. Does West Virginia force teams to look ugly or do they just get lucky and catch teams on a bad day? Maybe a little of both. How long can it continue? It's going to be hard to outrebound Duke, so they will again have to win in some other way.

Duke - the team that was the biggest winner before the first tip. There was no question that Duke had the easiest draw when the brackets came out. Louisville could have been dangerous in the second round, but they were asleep in the first 10 minutes against Cal and could never recover. Cal offered little resistance. Purdue too was an easy match without Hummel. Duke was probably fortunate that somebody else, anybody else, didn't get through that section. Then, the only game that any other #1 seed would have had even a remote chance of losing had they had Duke's path was Baylor. As good as Baylor was considering their history, it still wasn't a top level team. However, Duke's best player, Singler had a terrible game. Baylor wins the game if they could have rebounded, which they could not. Part of that is a credit to Duke and part was because Baylor's big man fouled out and played little in the second half. I'll give Duke credit for handling each team without any of their games being all that close, but they should write a thank you letter to the selection committee. As they go forward they are the only #1 seed remaining and could easily wind up winning the tournament. However, should they have to go through West Virginia and Butler they will have to beat two teams better than any they have faced this tournament and each of those two teams has already beaten somebody better than Duke.