East and South Preview

East:

The Wildcats from Kentucky are the tournament's #2 overall. They certainly have the talent as the NBA will one day show. Are they hungry enough? Are they disciplined enough? Are they consistent enough? We'll find out. They have a potentially dangerous second round matchup with Texas who is also very talented but lost their way down the stretch. If they get to the Sweet 16 it is Wisconsin that could be dangerous. The Badgers are disciplined and their defense could frustrate the Wildcats. The Wildcats are still a strong favorite to emerge in the Elite 8, but the path isn't exactly a clear one. On the bottom half it is our beloved Mountaineers. The Mountaineers seem to love playing in nail biters, so any game could be lethal. Still I don't see Morgan St, Clemson, or Missouri as incredibly dangerous teams. If they do navigate those waters their opponent in the Sweet 16 will be interesting. Is New Mexico really that good? Assuming they get past Montana, they will face either Marquette of Washington. The Golden Eagles are another team who likes to play it close and if they could beat Washington, the game against the Lobos might be a dandy. Either way, the Mountaineers have to be the favorite to emerge to face the Wildcats. West Virginia wins by outmuscling people on the boards, Kentucky wins with talent. I'd give the edge to the talent. Here are this bracket's Final 4 odds:

Kentucky 42%
West Virginia 24%
New Mexico 12%
Wisconsin 10%
Marquette 4%
Temple 3%
Field 5%


South:

This is the puzzling bracket. If you were looking for me to give the odds to somebody other than a 1 seed it would have been in Duke's region. The Blue Devils haven't convinced me. Singler is a very tough matchup. He can score from anywhere in anyway. After that though, I'm not too impressed. If a team can find a way to contain him, Duke will once again be in NCAA tournament trouble. The problem is trying to find a really good team in this region. Louisville is dangerous in the second round and that potential matchup would have concerned if I were a Dukie. However, the Blue Devils caught a big break if they should make it to the Sweet 16. The best seed from the group that would contain their opponent is Purdue. Without Hummel however, I doubt the Boilermakers could win an NIT game. The only team to have any concern about from that grouping is Texas A&M. I admittedly don't know a whole lot about them, but if you want to pick a 12 or 13 to make it to the Sweet 16, which always seems to happen, I'd go with Utah St. or Siena, neither of which would give Duke any trouble. On the other half Villanova represents the slumping 2 seed that really should have been a 3 or maybe even a 4. I'd be a little surprised if they make it to the Elite 8. I'd give a slight edge to Baylor who is playing better. The problem is what do the Bears know about NCAA tournament success? Could they really make a deep tournament run? It's hard to believe. Perhaps Notre Dame will make a run out the South, or even ODU, Richmond, or St. Mary's. It's wide open. Take your pick. Perhaps it's Duke's year to have a good tournament. It's hard to find somebody else to pick. Here are my odds:

Duke 32%
Baylor 20%
Villanova 18%
Texas A&M 8%
Louisville 8%
Notre Dame 5%
Richmond 3%
Field 6%


The interesting thing to note here is that the top 2 teams in the Midwest and West have over a 70% chance of advancing combined; it's 66% in the East. Here in the wide open South it's a measly 52%. Ninth seeded Louisville even gets 8% love, which is more than any other team seeded below a 4 in any of the other regions. Perhaps I gave the Cardinals too much credit, but it seems like some upsets are brewing in this region and the Cardinals have the coach and experience to pull it off.