Buc's and O's after 21

It has the look and feel to me that I could be analyzing the two worst teams in baseball. What a treat! Right now the Pirates have a 5 game edge over the league worst Orioles, but I'd bet it will be a close race coming down the stretch. Since the Pirates have the edge we'll start with them.

The Pirates (9-12) continue to blow away the competition when it comes to a negative run differential. They are 9-12 but have been outscored by 77 runs (37 more than the O's). They somehow continue to find ways to win close games or they would have a record similar to the Orioles. Ohlendorf remains on the DL which is really hurting the pitching staff as they have not been able to find a replacement. Take for instance their next two scheduled starters. Brian Burres goes today (ERA 9.31) and really is not a major league caliber pitcher. Chalrie Morton (16.20) is a huge disappointment at the 4 spot and goes tomorrow. So, those two games seem very unlikely for the Pirates to win. To avoid a losing streak the Pirates will need their opening day starter, Zach Duke (ERA 6.11), to win in the third game. Maholm's 4.83 ERA is the only respectable one among current starters other than Jeff Karstens 2.70 after his one spot start. He'll get another chance, but we've seen him before and it is very likely his ERA will go above 5 quickly (7.31 ERA in 16 minor league innings this year). So, the Pirates starting pitching is in total disarray. The bullpen is not faring much better. The strong back 4 hasn't been so strong. Meek's 0.64 ERA is awesome while the other three have not performed well. Much of this time is in garbage time when it doesn't matter, so it's not fair to be too hard on Hanrahan (ERA 9.95) or Donnelly (ERA 7.00) who have both shut teams down when it mattered. However, the closer, Dotel (ERA 10.61) has blown 2 of his 5 save chances. Luckily, the Pirates won both of those games. Still, the back end of the bullpen is questionable at this point. All this adds up to the Pirates giving up 30 more runs than the next highest team (Dodgers). The hitting isn't much better. The Pirates have scored more runs than only the Braves, Indians, and Orioles (lowest in league). McCutchen continues to be a stud and has the look of a great centerpiece for the Pirates future. He is hitting over .300 with 3 homers and 10 stolen bases. LaRoche has played in just 2/3 of the games because of some nagging injuries, but he is hitting .380 with two homers in his time. He is battling for a spot on the team when Pedro Alvarez is called up. If LaRoche continues to perform it could bump Clement (Pedro slides to first) or Iwamura (LaRoche goes to second) out of a job. Doumit is on a hot streak and has now posted some pretty good numbers, .288 with 3 homers. The rest have not fared so well. Cedeno (.222 with 2 homers) has given what was expected of him. Milledge (.228) has had great at bats, but the balls just are not falling for him. He has yet to homer, but his approach at the plate has earned him the 3 or 5 spot in the lineup most nights. I think he could be in for a good season. Jones (.211, 4 home runs, 2 steals) has been a bit of a disappointment. He is on pace to hit 30 home runs, but there is still a concern there that he was a flash in the pan. He needs to find some consistency. The biggest offseason acquisition for position players is also the biggest bust so far. Iwamura (.215, 2 homers) is a guy who is supposed to be a steady .285 type hitter. He batted lead off for a while but has since sunk in the lineup. Hopefully he can turn it around. The bench production has also really dropped off as Church, Crosby, and Young have fizzled. This team is hanging on to respectability, but it's losing its grip. They need Ohlendorf back soon and some people to step up. Donnie Veal could be a quality starter down the road; I'd be interested in seeing him getting a call up soon if the starters continue to fail to perform.

Baltimore (4-17), as mentioned before, has scored the least amount of runs in the league. The injury to Brian Roberts certainly hasn't helped. Adam Jones (.202, 3 homers, 1 steal) and Garrett Atkins (.238, 0 homers) have to be two of the prime culprits. The production has come from Ty Wiggington (.322, 6 homers). He's been around a while and he has some power, but nobody expects him to keep up this sort of production. Markakis has picked up his average (.284) but still has just one home run. Wieters too has just one home run and a solid average (.297). Tejada's .284 average with 3 homers is fine for what the Orioles are looking for. Other than that, there is nobody else even worth mentioning. The starting pitching continues to give the O's a chance with Millwood, Gutherie, Matusz, and Hernandez all in the 4's or below (Millwood 3.38) in ERA. The O's may be looking for a 5th starter since Bergesen (12.19 ERA) hasn't gotten it done. The bullpen continues to underwhelm. The O's have 4 saves by 4 different pitchers, one of which belongs to closer Mike Gonzalez (injured). Berken and Ohman have done a nice job while Albers and Johnson have really struggled. Not too much exciting going on at the AAA affiliate in Norfolk either. The one bright spot has been Jake Arrieta. The 24 year old has compiled a 0.36 ERA for the Tides in 4 starts. If he keeps it up, perhaps he could get a shot at that 5th spot.

Projections at 30 game mark:
Pirates (@LA for 4, vs ChC 3, StL 2) 12-18
Orioles (vs NY, vs Bos 3, @ NY 3, @ Min 2) - tough stretch 6-24

Currently Back:

Pirates 1st - 5, wildcard - 3
Orioles 1st -12, wildcard - 9.5 (almost double figures)