O's Preview

Admittedly I am not up on the Orioles, but I'm getting there. So, for an outsider that doesn't know the team well, here's my analysis.

Area of strength and promise: Outfield/Catcher

It remains to be seen if Adam Jones will live up to his potential. The good news is that he is still young at 24. Does he have the resolve and determination to take his game to the next level? I'm not sure I see him being a star in this league, but he can be above average and serviceable. I'm surprised he has only 10 stolen bases each of the past two seasons.

Markakis is the most credentialed player roaming the outfield and is also young at 26. While he is a solid .300 type guy, he is not a devastating hitter. He had just 18 home runs in 642 at bats last year, one fewer than Adam Jones had in only 473 at bats. He handles the bat well and is a guy that Oriole fans probably want around for some time to come, but unless he develops some more power, he is not going to be a feared hitter.

Left field is going to be manned by Felix Pie to start, but he is just a holding place for Noland Reimold. Pie will tease you with flashes of brilliance, but he is not consistent enough to be an everyday above average starter in MLB. Reimold had a very nice rookie season. He hit 15 home runs in just 358 at bats and stole 8 bases. He too is 26 and we will have to wait and see if he can keep that pace for an entire season and hit around 25 home runs while still keeping his average around .280.

Luke Scott is a backup outfielder and will DH as well. This guy is your prototypical AL power hitter that does little else for you. He hit 25 home runs last year in 449 at bats, but struck out 104 times and is a .250 hitter. He'll give you the bell ringer every now and then, but he's not a guy you can count on to get on base.

Matt Wieters, 23, gets a tremendous amount of hype for a catcher. In his rookie season he hit .288 with 9 homers in 354 at bats. I don't see why he can't build on that and be around a .300 hitter with 20 home run type power. That's a tremendous advantage to get that kind of production out of your catcher.

Areas of Concern: Everywhere Else

Garrett Atkins is an interesting pickup to play first base. At 30, he is borderline to fit into the O's youth movement. Perhaps he is just mid-season trade bait. He's played his entire career at hitter friendly Coors Field, so you would expect some big power numbers. Last year his numbers were awful. He hit .226 with 9 home runs in 354 at bats. His numbers had been trailing off since his 2006 breakout season, but last year was a big drop. Perhaps a change of scenery will help, but he's been bad again this spring. If the O's are hoping to get 20+ home runs and a .300 BA out this guy, I think they'll be very disappointed. I don't see Atkins being the answer at first.

At second we have the face of the Orioles at this point, Brian Roberts. Roberts is solid, the problem is that he's starting to get a little age on him in contrast to the team's rebuilding plans. He could be traded one of these years. As he's aged, his stolen bases have dropped. After a career high 50 in 2007 it dropped to 40 and then 30 last year. I'd expect to see him settle in somewhere around the 20's. The good news is that as he's lost some speed, he's gained some pop. He hit 16 home runs last year which was the most since his career high in 2005 of 18. He should again continue to give strong production from a position usually weak with the bat.

Izturis at short is barely worth mentioning. He'll give you little offensively. He's not quite as bad as having your pitcher hit, but not far from it.

Tejada plays third and is about to turn 36. It puzzles me greatly that they would bring him back at this age while they are trying to build a young team. I suppose he's just a rental, but the O's don't need a trip down memory land. He's hit a mere 27 home runs in 1267 at bats over the past two years and he's not going to swipe many bases. He may be around .300, but I don't see him as a big time impact player. It seems to stunt the team's growth.

Pitching staff:

Millwood will anchor the staff, but at 35 is he going to be around to see the team win again? Jeremy Gutherie had an ERA over 5 last year after two solid seasons. I don't know that he'll return as low as the 3's and be the ace of the staff for years to come, but I think he'll be much better than 5.04. So, they could be solid at 1 and 2 if Gutherie returns to form. Next up is the youth movement. I like where they are going, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot this year. There are high expectations from the 4th overall pick of a couple of years ago, Brian Matusz. It wasn't a bad start to his career last year in the 8 games he started. The question is how good can he be and how soon. If he lives up to expectations early, it could change the look of the staff. At the end it's Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez, both coming off rookie seasons. Bergesen's was much better than Hernandez's, but considering their youth it is hard to expect these guys to give you a ton of quality starts. Overall, if Gutherie comes back to form, the pitching staff has some promise. How good will it be this year? I'd still expect the starting pitchers to be below average and facing the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox won't help. Still they have a good veteran to teach some good young arms, so something good could develop over the next few years.

Mike Gonzalez is the closer, at least for now. He had opportunities to be the man in Atlanta and couldn't get it done whether due to injury or performance. He is a talented pitcher but whether he could put it all together and stay healthy remains to be seen. Supporting Gonzalez are some guys that might not provide much support. Johnson and Meredith are okay. After that, it's really a struggle. If the young starting pitchers can't go deep into games, it could take a toll on the bullpen and the team.

Overall:

The Orioles have some good young talent in the outfield and at the starting pitching positions. Unfortunately they lack a big time, big impact hitter. They'll score some runs, but not enough. The lineup will be below average. The starting pitching staff could surprise some people this year, but being so young it's hard to count on them being solid and consistent. The starting pitching could be average this year and above average in the coming years if the young arms develop. The bullpen looks to be a weakness in terms of depth and not having a proven closer. For a team that has virtually no shot at making the playoffs considering the division they are in, I'm disappointed in the Atkins and Tejada moves. Again, they are probably just rentals, but the infield doesn't have a guy in his 20's on it. That doesn't sound like a young, rebuilding team to me. I wouldn't expect much production from either one. Atkins could prove me wrong and hang around for a while. We'll see. The O's need to keep brining in young talent because this is still not their year.

Prediction: 69-93 slightly better than last year. Last in the brutal AL East.