Pirates Season Preview

Area of strength and promise: Outfield/Corner Infield

Andrew McCutchen is the star of the show for the Pirates at age 23. He projects to be a 20 HR 40 SB guy with a good batting average and excellent defensive skills. He is a very good player to build your team around and had an excellent rookie season. Lastings Milledge is a very interesting player and his development could be key for the Pirates. He made it to the show at 21 and is now only 25. He may have had some success come to easily for him too early and lost favor with both the Mets and Nationals. In his only full season he hit 14 home runs and had 24 stolen bases. He could be around a 20-20 guy. He's been nothing but a model citizen who has been praised for his hard work and keeping his mouth shut since arriving in Pittsburgh. If he stays the course, it could be a big pickup for the Pirates. Currently Garrett Jones plays right field. The question with him is if he was a flash in the pan last year. Jones is 28 and made it to the big leagues for the first time last year, so if he's legit, he's a late bloomer. If he kept his home run pace up from last year (half season) he would hit over 40 and he would steal 20 bases. It's difficult to imagine he will keep those numbers up, ones that would make him a big name in the league. However, 30 home runs with 20 steals and a batting average around .275 would be still be very strong from that position. Jones may play first, him more natural position when Jose Tabata arrives later this year. Tabata is a fairly prized prospect that is said to have all the tools. Until then Jeff Clement, the 3rd overall pick in the 2005 draft as a catcher, will play first. He was a bust for the Mariners and the Pirates will give him probably half of a season to prove himself. Unless he does, 1B will be a weak spot on the team until Jones takes over. At 3B is Andy LaRoche. He is decent, but lacks power for a corner infield. He is also on borrowed time. Pedro Alvarez will take his spot at the end of May (so that the Pirates have another year of control over him) and this is the most anticipated debut of a prospect since Barry Bonds, even much bigger than McCutchen. Alvarez is expected to be a 40+ home run guy and to do that pretty quickly. So, for now the corner infield is a liability, but with Jones and Alvarez manning it in the middle of the season, it could be a power hitting combination. The outfield possesses some speed and pop.

Areas of Concern: Middle Infield

Iwamura is a decent pickup for the Pirates to play second, but probably will only be in Pittsburgh for one season. He is a quality hitter with little pop and fair speed. There is nothing exciting here and nothing in the pipeline for the Pirates. Cedeno is the same story at second, except he doesn't even handle the bat that well. Middle infield is a weakness with no help on the way.

Hard to Call: Catcher

Ryan Doumit, 29, has shown some good pop on his bat at times, but has not been able to stay healthy. A switch hitting power catcher is quite a luxury to have, but, except for one season, it has never seemed to work out that great. He could hit 20 homers, but he must stay healthy. The organization has some depth at the position including last year's first round pick Tony Sanchez. Considering the position the Pirates are in good shape, but they are currently asking Doumit to bat 4th, which may be a bit of a stretch.


Pitching staff:

Zach Duke had an excellent start to the year and then trailed off considerably. I don't see a lot of upside here, but he can be a guy to gobble up innings (213 last year) and keep his ERA around 4. He is a good guy to have in the 3 or 4 spot, but not ace caliber. Ohlendorf is the opposite of Duke. He finished very strong down the stretch and has good potential. He is an extremely smart pitcher with good stuff and could be a legitimate #2 guy with an ERA in the mid to high 3's. Maholm has pitched over 175 innings each of the last four seasons and had a very strong 2008 (3.71 ERA) followed by a disappointing 2009 (4.44). He battled some injuries last year and I would expect his 2010 ERA to dip below 4 if he can stay healthy. He is a nice #3 pitcher. Charlie Morton is a wildcard at the 4 spot. 2009 was decent and he is said to have a lot of potential, but he has yet to be consistent. He currently is a pitcher who you never know what you're going to get from. The 5 spot is still open. McCutchen took the first crack at it and got lit up. There are some good young arms in the minors, but the Pirates are likely going to struggle to get adequate innings from their 5 spot. Kevin Hart was supposed to be the guy, but he has been a disaster. Overall there is some potential here, but it still looks to be a little below average to me.

Octavio Dotel is the closer and while he's certainly not the best one in the league, he is serviceable and an upgrade from Matt Capps who couldn't get it done last year. Setting him up will be Hanrahan, Donnelly, Meek, Lopez, and Carrasco. It's a completely remodeled bullpen and one that should be much stronger. The Pirates have a couple of young arms in there, but overall they are taking a year by year approach to the bullpen, which is not a bad way to go. The pen should be an asset this year.

Overall:

The Pirates have McCutchen to lead the way and Alvarez to join him soon. That could be a big time twosome to build around. Where will the help come from? Will Milledge live up to his potential? Can Jones repeat last year's performance? Will Doumit stay healthy? The answers to those questions will determine Pirate run production. On the pitching side, it's a little more stable with the big question marks being at 4 and 5. It should be a staff that gives the offense a chance. The Pirates are not expected to jettison players at the trade deadline this year and I would expect them to compete for the whole season this time. Still, there's not enough there to go .500.

Prediction: 71-91 - hey at least it's not 100 losses right?