It has the look and feel to me that I could be analyzing the two worst teams in baseball. What a treat! Right now the Pirates have a 5 game edge over the league worst Orioles, but I'd bet it will be a close race coming down the stretch. Since the Pirates have the edge we'll start with them.
The Pirates (9-12) continue to blow away the competition when it comes to a negative run differential. They are 9-12 but have been outscored by 77 runs (37 more than the O's). They somehow continue to find ways to win close games or they would have a record similar to the Orioles. Ohlendorf remains on the DL which is really hurting the pitching staff as they have not been able to find a replacement. Take for instance their next two scheduled starters. Brian Burres goes today (ERA 9.31) and really is not a major league caliber pitcher. Chalrie Morton (16.20) is a huge disappointment at the 4 spot and goes tomorrow. So, those two games seem very unlikely for the Pirates to win. To avoid a losing streak the Pirates will need their opening day starter, Zach Duke (ERA 6.11), to win in the third game. Maholm's 4.83 ERA is the only respectable one among current starters other than Jeff Karstens 2.70 after his one spot start. He'll get another chance, but we've seen him before and it is very likely his ERA will go above 5 quickly (7.31 ERA in 16 minor league innings this year). So, the Pirates starting pitching is in total disarray. The bullpen is not faring much better. The strong back 4 hasn't been so strong. Meek's 0.64 ERA is awesome while the other three have not performed well. Much of this time is in garbage time when it doesn't matter, so it's not fair to be too hard on Hanrahan (ERA 9.95) or Donnelly (ERA 7.00) who have both shut teams down when it mattered. However, the closer, Dotel (ERA 10.61) has blown 2 of his 5 save chances. Luckily, the Pirates won both of those games. Still, the back end of the bullpen is questionable at this point. All this adds up to the Pirates giving up 30 more runs than the next highest team (Dodgers). The hitting isn't much better. The Pirates have scored more runs than only the Braves, Indians, and Orioles (lowest in league). McCutchen continues to be a stud and has the look of a great centerpiece for the Pirates future. He is hitting over .300 with 3 homers and 10 stolen bases. LaRoche has played in just 2/3 of the games because of some nagging injuries, but he is hitting .380 with two homers in his time. He is battling for a spot on the team when Pedro Alvarez is called up. If LaRoche continues to perform it could bump Clement (Pedro slides to first) or Iwamura (LaRoche goes to second) out of a job. Doumit is on a hot streak and has now posted some pretty good numbers, .288 with 3 homers. The rest have not fared so well. Cedeno (.222 with 2 homers) has given what was expected of him. Milledge (.228) has had great at bats, but the balls just are not falling for him. He has yet to homer, but his approach at the plate has earned him the 3 or 5 spot in the lineup most nights. I think he could be in for a good season. Jones (.211, 4 home runs, 2 steals) has been a bit of a disappointment. He is on pace to hit 30 home runs, but there is still a concern there that he was a flash in the pan. He needs to find some consistency. The biggest offseason acquisition for position players is also the biggest bust so far. Iwamura (.215, 2 homers) is a guy who is supposed to be a steady .285 type hitter. He batted lead off for a while but has since sunk in the lineup. Hopefully he can turn it around. The bench production has also really dropped off as Church, Crosby, and Young have fizzled. This team is hanging on to respectability, but it's losing its grip. They need Ohlendorf back soon and some people to step up. Donnie Veal could be a quality starter down the road; I'd be interested in seeing him getting a call up soon if the starters continue to fail to perform.
Baltimore (4-17), as mentioned before, has scored the least amount of runs in the league. The injury to Brian Roberts certainly hasn't helped. Adam Jones (.202, 3 homers, 1 steal) and Garrett Atkins (.238, 0 homers) have to be two of the prime culprits. The production has come from Ty Wiggington (.322, 6 homers). He's been around a while and he has some power, but nobody expects him to keep up this sort of production. Markakis has picked up his average (.284) but still has just one home run. Wieters too has just one home run and a solid average (.297). Tejada's .284 average with 3 homers is fine for what the Orioles are looking for. Other than that, there is nobody else even worth mentioning. The starting pitching continues to give the O's a chance with Millwood, Gutherie, Matusz, and Hernandez all in the 4's or below (Millwood 3.38) in ERA. The O's may be looking for a 5th starter since Bergesen (12.19 ERA) hasn't gotten it done. The bullpen continues to underwhelm. The O's have 4 saves by 4 different pitchers, one of which belongs to closer Mike Gonzalez (injured). Berken and Ohman have done a nice job while Albers and Johnson have really struggled. Not too much exciting going on at the AAA affiliate in Norfolk either. The one bright spot has been Jake Arrieta. The 24 year old has compiled a 0.36 ERA for the Tides in 4 starts. If he keeps it up, perhaps he could get a shot at that 5th spot.
Projections at 30 game mark:
Pirates (@LA for 4, vs ChC 3, StL 2) 12-18
Orioles (vs NY, vs Bos 3, @ NY 3, @ Min 2) - tough stretch 6-24
Currently Back:
Pirates 1st - 5, wildcard - 3
Orioles 1st -12, wildcard - 9.5 (almost double figures)
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Friday, April 16, 2010
O's and Pirates update
For the Pirates and Orioles start to the season there is bad news and really bad news. Should we expect anything else? Let's start with the really bad news first. The Orioles are a league worst 1-9. The most obvious problem is the bullpen. Gonzalez has blown two of three save opportunities and the rest of the bullpen has not fared much better. It looked like a weakness of the team coming into the season and so far it has proven to be just that. If the Orioles get a quality start and score a few runs it still looks like it may be tough to hold onto a lead. That doesn't mean the Orioles have been getting a lot of leads. They have scored 29 runs in 10 games, which is not going to get it done. The 2.9/game barely bests Seattle and the only other team that is scoring less per game is 1-8 Houston in the National League. It's hard to envision the Orioles scoring a lot of runs consistently either. The questionable acquisitions of Atkins and Tejada have not proven wise so far. Atkins is hitting .222 with no homers and has as many strikeouts (9) as hits and walks combined. Tejada is batting .205 but has been a little more productive with two home runs and 7 RBIs. Jones is giving the team an average performance and continues to fail to live up to expectations. Izturis is useless with the bat. Luke Scott hits a dinger every now and then but mostly wiffs. Pie and Wiggington have performed well so far but that's doubtful to last. The biggest problem so far for the offense has been Roberts and Markakis. Two of the three biggest offensive weapons have done nothing so far and that should change and bring some more runs with it. Wieters has been good so far and continues to be the big hope for the future. He looks legit. Still, if you're big three are Roberts, Markakis, and Wieters and you play in the AL East, you're probably just not going to score enough runs to be competitive. The starting pitching has actually been pretty decent. Millwood continues to pitch well. Gutherie, Matusz, and Hernandez have been average. Bergersen has been terrible. The starters as a group look like they may keep the O's in some games. The question is if the offense can score enough runs and if the bullpen can hold a lead if they do. It's happened only once thus far. My concern about the optimism for the O's future is that you are building around Wieters, Markakis, Jones, Gutherie, and Matusz. There isn't much else there to be excited about. Matusz could be an ace. On the hitters’ side, it's becoming more doubtful that Jones is going to develop into a great hitter and while Wieters and Markakis handle the bat well, it remains to be seen if they will develop significant power. I'm not up on O's prospects, so there may be some guys in the pipeline to be excited about. I'm just not sure that the core young talent has the upside to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox even when they do develop.
Now to the Pirates who are 4-5. Considering they have played 6 road games and 3 at home, that doesn't appear so bad. However, they have won their close games, which they always won't do, so I don't think you could say they have played solidly so far. They have been outscored by 26 runs, the same margin as the Orioles. Part of that is due to the failed experiment of Hayden Penn. He was brought into a couple of games where the Pirates were behind and it turned into a rout. He and his 30.86 ERA in 3 games have since been cut. Also, the Pirates #2 Ohlendorf had back spasms and missed a start. Because of an odd technical rule for the first two weeks of the season, the Pirates couldn't call up anybody on their 40 man roster. Their worst AAA starter got the ball to fill in and he was rocked. The encouraging thing for the Pirates is the bullpen, particularly the back end. They had two good young arms (Hanrahan and Meek) and they built around that this season with Dotel and Donnelly. If they get to those four guys, the Pirates should have a pretty good shot. Carrasco is decent as a middle reliever, but they Pirates don't have a long man and it's shown in games where they got behind early. For the starters, the Pirates look solid 1-3, but they need Ohlendorf to get back soon because they don't have anyone currently ready to step in. In fact, the 4 and 5 men for the Pirates really darken the picture for the Pirates this year. Charlie Morton has great stuff, but he seems to lack the mental toughness to fight out of jams and he gives up the long ball. The number 5 pitchers is anybody's guess. McCutchen's first crack at it didn't go so well. Because of days off, the Pirates are going with a 4 man rotation the next couple of weeks. On the hitting side, the Pirates are scoring 4.3/game, which is good enough to give them a chance. McCutchen and Jones are both just below .250 but both have been impact players, Jones with 3 homers and 1 SB and McCutchen with 1 homer and 5 SBs. Milledge and Iwamura have been solid, but Doumit has struggled in the middle of the lineup. LaRoche has also struggled and Clement seems to be on borrowed time as he has stunk in his first chance at an everyday job, especially looking bad against lefties. It doesn't sound too impressive, so how are they scoring? Cedeno has been surprisingly good at the bottom of the lineup and the bench has been awesome. The four non catching bench players (Church, Young, Raynor, and Crosby) all are hitting at least .300. Church, Young, and Crosby have driven in eight runs, which are just two less than the 4-7 hitters of Doumit, Milledge, Clement, and LaRoche. Three bench players almost equaling four starters in RBI batting position is not usually the way it works. What's the outlook? Can they hang in a while? The 1-3 starters will give them a chance and the bullpen can shut the door, but the Pirates need help at the last two rotation spots. If Ohlendorf is out a while it will really hurt. Offensively, Jones and McCutchen look like they will continue to make some noise with Iwamura and Milledge getting on base and giving these guys a chance. However, as a long time believer in Doumit, it looks like he may never live up to expectations. Clement looks bad and LaRoche isn't going to offer much. I think Church will soon take over in right and Jones will slide to first for Clement, which should help the lineup. They will continue to try to hold on until Pedro and his big bat arrive in late May. I don't think they can.
I've always thought that a team is not out of the playoff race until they are 10 games out. So, we'll keep the count and see how close the teams are to falling out of it. After just 10 games, the O's are surprisingly close.
O's 6 out of first, 5.5 out of wildcard
Pirates 2 out of first, 1.5 out of wildcard
Now to the Pirates who are 4-5. Considering they have played 6 road games and 3 at home, that doesn't appear so bad. However, they have won their close games, which they always won't do, so I don't think you could say they have played solidly so far. They have been outscored by 26 runs, the same margin as the Orioles. Part of that is due to the failed experiment of Hayden Penn. He was brought into a couple of games where the Pirates were behind and it turned into a rout. He and his 30.86 ERA in 3 games have since been cut. Also, the Pirates #2 Ohlendorf had back spasms and missed a start. Because of an odd technical rule for the first two weeks of the season, the Pirates couldn't call up anybody on their 40 man roster. Their worst AAA starter got the ball to fill in and he was rocked. The encouraging thing for the Pirates is the bullpen, particularly the back end. They had two good young arms (Hanrahan and Meek) and they built around that this season with Dotel and Donnelly. If they get to those four guys, the Pirates should have a pretty good shot. Carrasco is decent as a middle reliever, but they Pirates don't have a long man and it's shown in games where they got behind early. For the starters, the Pirates look solid 1-3, but they need Ohlendorf to get back soon because they don't have anyone currently ready to step in. In fact, the 4 and 5 men for the Pirates really darken the picture for the Pirates this year. Charlie Morton has great stuff, but he seems to lack the mental toughness to fight out of jams and he gives up the long ball. The number 5 pitchers is anybody's guess. McCutchen's first crack at it didn't go so well. Because of days off, the Pirates are going with a 4 man rotation the next couple of weeks. On the hitting side, the Pirates are scoring 4.3/game, which is good enough to give them a chance. McCutchen and Jones are both just below .250 but both have been impact players, Jones with 3 homers and 1 SB and McCutchen with 1 homer and 5 SBs. Milledge and Iwamura have been solid, but Doumit has struggled in the middle of the lineup. LaRoche has also struggled and Clement seems to be on borrowed time as he has stunk in his first chance at an everyday job, especially looking bad against lefties. It doesn't sound too impressive, so how are they scoring? Cedeno has been surprisingly good at the bottom of the lineup and the bench has been awesome. The four non catching bench players (Church, Young, Raynor, and Crosby) all are hitting at least .300. Church, Young, and Crosby have driven in eight runs, which are just two less than the 4-7 hitters of Doumit, Milledge, Clement, and LaRoche. Three bench players almost equaling four starters in RBI batting position is not usually the way it works. What's the outlook? Can they hang in a while? The 1-3 starters will give them a chance and the bullpen can shut the door, but the Pirates need help at the last two rotation spots. If Ohlendorf is out a while it will really hurt. Offensively, Jones and McCutchen look like they will continue to make some noise with Iwamura and Milledge getting on base and giving these guys a chance. However, as a long time believer in Doumit, it looks like he may never live up to expectations. Clement looks bad and LaRoche isn't going to offer much. I think Church will soon take over in right and Jones will slide to first for Clement, which should help the lineup. They will continue to try to hold on until Pedro and his big bat arrive in late May. I don't think they can.
I've always thought that a team is not out of the playoff race until they are 10 games out. So, we'll keep the count and see how close the teams are to falling out of it. After just 10 games, the O's are surprisingly close.
O's 6 out of first, 5.5 out of wildcard
Pirates 2 out of first, 1.5 out of wildcard
Monday, April 12, 2010
Pirates Season Preview
Area of strength and promise: Outfield/Corner Infield
Andrew McCutchen is the star of the show for the Pirates at age 23. He projects to be a 20 HR 40 SB guy with a good batting average and excellent defensive skills. He is a very good player to build your team around and had an excellent rookie season. Lastings Milledge is a very interesting player and his development could be key for the Pirates. He made it to the show at 21 and is now only 25. He may have had some success come to easily for him too early and lost favor with both the Mets and Nationals. In his only full season he hit 14 home runs and had 24 stolen bases. He could be around a 20-20 guy. He's been nothing but a model citizen who has been praised for his hard work and keeping his mouth shut since arriving in Pittsburgh. If he stays the course, it could be a big pickup for the Pirates. Currently Garrett Jones plays right field. The question with him is if he was a flash in the pan last year. Jones is 28 and made it to the big leagues for the first time last year, so if he's legit, he's a late bloomer. If he kept his home run pace up from last year (half season) he would hit over 40 and he would steal 20 bases. It's difficult to imagine he will keep those numbers up, ones that would make him a big name in the league. However, 30 home runs with 20 steals and a batting average around .275 would be still be very strong from that position. Jones may play first, him more natural position when Jose Tabata arrives later this year. Tabata is a fairly prized prospect that is said to have all the tools. Until then Jeff Clement, the 3rd overall pick in the 2005 draft as a catcher, will play first. He was a bust for the Mariners and the Pirates will give him probably half of a season to prove himself. Unless he does, 1B will be a weak spot on the team until Jones takes over. At 3B is Andy LaRoche. He is decent, but lacks power for a corner infield. He is also on borrowed time. Pedro Alvarez will take his spot at the end of May (so that the Pirates have another year of control over him) and this is the most anticipated debut of a prospect since Barry Bonds, even much bigger than McCutchen. Alvarez is expected to be a 40+ home run guy and to do that pretty quickly. So, for now the corner infield is a liability, but with Jones and Alvarez manning it in the middle of the season, it could be a power hitting combination. The outfield possesses some speed and pop.
Areas of Concern: Middle Infield
Iwamura is a decent pickup for the Pirates to play second, but probably will only be in Pittsburgh for one season. He is a quality hitter with little pop and fair speed. There is nothing exciting here and nothing in the pipeline for the Pirates. Cedeno is the same story at second, except he doesn't even handle the bat that well. Middle infield is a weakness with no help on the way.
Hard to Call: Catcher
Ryan Doumit, 29, has shown some good pop on his bat at times, but has not been able to stay healthy. A switch hitting power catcher is quite a luxury to have, but, except for one season, it has never seemed to work out that great. He could hit 20 homers, but he must stay healthy. The organization has some depth at the position including last year's first round pick Tony Sanchez. Considering the position the Pirates are in good shape, but they are currently asking Doumit to bat 4th, which may be a bit of a stretch.
Pitching staff:
Zach Duke had an excellent start to the year and then trailed off considerably. I don't see a lot of upside here, but he can be a guy to gobble up innings (213 last year) and keep his ERA around 4. He is a good guy to have in the 3 or 4 spot, but not ace caliber. Ohlendorf is the opposite of Duke. He finished very strong down the stretch and has good potential. He is an extremely smart pitcher with good stuff and could be a legitimate #2 guy with an ERA in the mid to high 3's. Maholm has pitched over 175 innings each of the last four seasons and had a very strong 2008 (3.71 ERA) followed by a disappointing 2009 (4.44). He battled some injuries last year and I would expect his 2010 ERA to dip below 4 if he can stay healthy. He is a nice #3 pitcher. Charlie Morton is a wildcard at the 4 spot. 2009 was decent and he is said to have a lot of potential, but he has yet to be consistent. He currently is a pitcher who you never know what you're going to get from. The 5 spot is still open. McCutchen took the first crack at it and got lit up. There are some good young arms in the minors, but the Pirates are likely going to struggle to get adequate innings from their 5 spot. Kevin Hart was supposed to be the guy, but he has been a disaster. Overall there is some potential here, but it still looks to be a little below average to me.
Octavio Dotel is the closer and while he's certainly not the best one in the league, he is serviceable and an upgrade from Matt Capps who couldn't get it done last year. Setting him up will be Hanrahan, Donnelly, Meek, Lopez, and Carrasco. It's a completely remodeled bullpen and one that should be much stronger. The Pirates have a couple of young arms in there, but overall they are taking a year by year approach to the bullpen, which is not a bad way to go. The pen should be an asset this year.
Overall:
The Pirates have McCutchen to lead the way and Alvarez to join him soon. That could be a big time twosome to build around. Where will the help come from? Will Milledge live up to his potential? Can Jones repeat last year's performance? Will Doumit stay healthy? The answers to those questions will determine Pirate run production. On the pitching side, it's a little more stable with the big question marks being at 4 and 5. It should be a staff that gives the offense a chance. The Pirates are not expected to jettison players at the trade deadline this year and I would expect them to compete for the whole season this time. Still, there's not enough there to go .500.
Prediction: 71-91 - hey at least it's not 100 losses right?
Andrew McCutchen is the star of the show for the Pirates at age 23. He projects to be a 20 HR 40 SB guy with a good batting average and excellent defensive skills. He is a very good player to build your team around and had an excellent rookie season. Lastings Milledge is a very interesting player and his development could be key for the Pirates. He made it to the show at 21 and is now only 25. He may have had some success come to easily for him too early and lost favor with both the Mets and Nationals. In his only full season he hit 14 home runs and had 24 stolen bases. He could be around a 20-20 guy. He's been nothing but a model citizen who has been praised for his hard work and keeping his mouth shut since arriving in Pittsburgh. If he stays the course, it could be a big pickup for the Pirates. Currently Garrett Jones plays right field. The question with him is if he was a flash in the pan last year. Jones is 28 and made it to the big leagues for the first time last year, so if he's legit, he's a late bloomer. If he kept his home run pace up from last year (half season) he would hit over 40 and he would steal 20 bases. It's difficult to imagine he will keep those numbers up, ones that would make him a big name in the league. However, 30 home runs with 20 steals and a batting average around .275 would be still be very strong from that position. Jones may play first, him more natural position when Jose Tabata arrives later this year. Tabata is a fairly prized prospect that is said to have all the tools. Until then Jeff Clement, the 3rd overall pick in the 2005 draft as a catcher, will play first. He was a bust for the Mariners and the Pirates will give him probably half of a season to prove himself. Unless he does, 1B will be a weak spot on the team until Jones takes over. At 3B is Andy LaRoche. He is decent, but lacks power for a corner infield. He is also on borrowed time. Pedro Alvarez will take his spot at the end of May (so that the Pirates have another year of control over him) and this is the most anticipated debut of a prospect since Barry Bonds, even much bigger than McCutchen. Alvarez is expected to be a 40+ home run guy and to do that pretty quickly. So, for now the corner infield is a liability, but with Jones and Alvarez manning it in the middle of the season, it could be a power hitting combination. The outfield possesses some speed and pop.
Areas of Concern: Middle Infield
Iwamura is a decent pickup for the Pirates to play second, but probably will only be in Pittsburgh for one season. He is a quality hitter with little pop and fair speed. There is nothing exciting here and nothing in the pipeline for the Pirates. Cedeno is the same story at second, except he doesn't even handle the bat that well. Middle infield is a weakness with no help on the way.
Hard to Call: Catcher
Ryan Doumit, 29, has shown some good pop on his bat at times, but has not been able to stay healthy. A switch hitting power catcher is quite a luxury to have, but, except for one season, it has never seemed to work out that great. He could hit 20 homers, but he must stay healthy. The organization has some depth at the position including last year's first round pick Tony Sanchez. Considering the position the Pirates are in good shape, but they are currently asking Doumit to bat 4th, which may be a bit of a stretch.
Pitching staff:
Zach Duke had an excellent start to the year and then trailed off considerably. I don't see a lot of upside here, but he can be a guy to gobble up innings (213 last year) and keep his ERA around 4. He is a good guy to have in the 3 or 4 spot, but not ace caliber. Ohlendorf is the opposite of Duke. He finished very strong down the stretch and has good potential. He is an extremely smart pitcher with good stuff and could be a legitimate #2 guy with an ERA in the mid to high 3's. Maholm has pitched over 175 innings each of the last four seasons and had a very strong 2008 (3.71 ERA) followed by a disappointing 2009 (4.44). He battled some injuries last year and I would expect his 2010 ERA to dip below 4 if he can stay healthy. He is a nice #3 pitcher. Charlie Morton is a wildcard at the 4 spot. 2009 was decent and he is said to have a lot of potential, but he has yet to be consistent. He currently is a pitcher who you never know what you're going to get from. The 5 spot is still open. McCutchen took the first crack at it and got lit up. There are some good young arms in the minors, but the Pirates are likely going to struggle to get adequate innings from their 5 spot. Kevin Hart was supposed to be the guy, but he has been a disaster. Overall there is some potential here, but it still looks to be a little below average to me.
Octavio Dotel is the closer and while he's certainly not the best one in the league, he is serviceable and an upgrade from Matt Capps who couldn't get it done last year. Setting him up will be Hanrahan, Donnelly, Meek, Lopez, and Carrasco. It's a completely remodeled bullpen and one that should be much stronger. The Pirates have a couple of young arms in there, but overall they are taking a year by year approach to the bullpen, which is not a bad way to go. The pen should be an asset this year.
Overall:
The Pirates have McCutchen to lead the way and Alvarez to join him soon. That could be a big time twosome to build around. Where will the help come from? Will Milledge live up to his potential? Can Jones repeat last year's performance? Will Doumit stay healthy? The answers to those questions will determine Pirate run production. On the pitching side, it's a little more stable with the big question marks being at 4 and 5. It should be a staff that gives the offense a chance. The Pirates are not expected to jettison players at the trade deadline this year and I would expect them to compete for the whole season this time. Still, there's not enough there to go .500.
Prediction: 71-91 - hey at least it's not 100 losses right?
O's Preview
Admittedly I am not up on the Orioles, but I'm getting there. So, for an outsider that doesn't know the team well, here's my analysis.
Area of strength and promise: Outfield/Catcher
It remains to be seen if Adam Jones will live up to his potential. The good news is that he is still young at 24. Does he have the resolve and determination to take his game to the next level? I'm not sure I see him being a star in this league, but he can be above average and serviceable. I'm surprised he has only 10 stolen bases each of the past two seasons.
Markakis is the most credentialed player roaming the outfield and is also young at 26. While he is a solid .300 type guy, he is not a devastating hitter. He had just 18 home runs in 642 at bats last year, one fewer than Adam Jones had in only 473 at bats. He handles the bat well and is a guy that Oriole fans probably want around for some time to come, but unless he develops some more power, he is not going to be a feared hitter.
Left field is going to be manned by Felix Pie to start, but he is just a holding place for Noland Reimold. Pie will tease you with flashes of brilliance, but he is not consistent enough to be an everyday above average starter in MLB. Reimold had a very nice rookie season. He hit 15 home runs in just 358 at bats and stole 8 bases. He too is 26 and we will have to wait and see if he can keep that pace for an entire season and hit around 25 home runs while still keeping his average around .280.
Luke Scott is a backup outfielder and will DH as well. This guy is your prototypical AL power hitter that does little else for you. He hit 25 home runs last year in 449 at bats, but struck out 104 times and is a .250 hitter. He'll give you the bell ringer every now and then, but he's not a guy you can count on to get on base.
Matt Wieters, 23, gets a tremendous amount of hype for a catcher. In his rookie season he hit .288 with 9 homers in 354 at bats. I don't see why he can't build on that and be around a .300 hitter with 20 home run type power. That's a tremendous advantage to get that kind of production out of your catcher.
Areas of Concern: Everywhere Else
Garrett Atkins is an interesting pickup to play first base. At 30, he is borderline to fit into the O's youth movement. Perhaps he is just mid-season trade bait. He's played his entire career at hitter friendly Coors Field, so you would expect some big power numbers. Last year his numbers were awful. He hit .226 with 9 home runs in 354 at bats. His numbers had been trailing off since his 2006 breakout season, but last year was a big drop. Perhaps a change of scenery will help, but he's been bad again this spring. If the O's are hoping to get 20+ home runs and a .300 BA out this guy, I think they'll be very disappointed. I don't see Atkins being the answer at first.
At second we have the face of the Orioles at this point, Brian Roberts. Roberts is solid, the problem is that he's starting to get a little age on him in contrast to the team's rebuilding plans. He could be traded one of these years. As he's aged, his stolen bases have dropped. After a career high 50 in 2007 it dropped to 40 and then 30 last year. I'd expect to see him settle in somewhere around the 20's. The good news is that as he's lost some speed, he's gained some pop. He hit 16 home runs last year which was the most since his career high in 2005 of 18. He should again continue to give strong production from a position usually weak with the bat.
Izturis at short is barely worth mentioning. He'll give you little offensively. He's not quite as bad as having your pitcher hit, but not far from it.
Tejada plays third and is about to turn 36. It puzzles me greatly that they would bring him back at this age while they are trying to build a young team. I suppose he's just a rental, but the O's don't need a trip down memory land. He's hit a mere 27 home runs in 1267 at bats over the past two years and he's not going to swipe many bases. He may be around .300, but I don't see him as a big time impact player. It seems to stunt the team's growth.
Pitching staff:
Millwood will anchor the staff, but at 35 is he going to be around to see the team win again? Jeremy Gutherie had an ERA over 5 last year after two solid seasons. I don't know that he'll return as low as the 3's and be the ace of the staff for years to come, but I think he'll be much better than 5.04. So, they could be solid at 1 and 2 if Gutherie returns to form. Next up is the youth movement. I like where they are going, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot this year. There are high expectations from the 4th overall pick of a couple of years ago, Brian Matusz. It wasn't a bad start to his career last year in the 8 games he started. The question is how good can he be and how soon. If he lives up to expectations early, it could change the look of the staff. At the end it's Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez, both coming off rookie seasons. Bergesen's was much better than Hernandez's, but considering their youth it is hard to expect these guys to give you a ton of quality starts. Overall, if Gutherie comes back to form, the pitching staff has some promise. How good will it be this year? I'd still expect the starting pitchers to be below average and facing the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox won't help. Still they have a good veteran to teach some good young arms, so something good could develop over the next few years.
Mike Gonzalez is the closer, at least for now. He had opportunities to be the man in Atlanta and couldn't get it done whether due to injury or performance. He is a talented pitcher but whether he could put it all together and stay healthy remains to be seen. Supporting Gonzalez are some guys that might not provide much support. Johnson and Meredith are okay. After that, it's really a struggle. If the young starting pitchers can't go deep into games, it could take a toll on the bullpen and the team.
Overall:
The Orioles have some good young talent in the outfield and at the starting pitching positions. Unfortunately they lack a big time, big impact hitter. They'll score some runs, but not enough. The lineup will be below average. The starting pitching staff could surprise some people this year, but being so young it's hard to count on them being solid and consistent. The starting pitching could be average this year and above average in the coming years if the young arms develop. The bullpen looks to be a weakness in terms of depth and not having a proven closer. For a team that has virtually no shot at making the playoffs considering the division they are in, I'm disappointed in the Atkins and Tejada moves. Again, they are probably just rentals, but the infield doesn't have a guy in his 20's on it. That doesn't sound like a young, rebuilding team to me. I wouldn't expect much production from either one. Atkins could prove me wrong and hang around for a while. We'll see. The O's need to keep brining in young talent because this is still not their year.
Prediction: 69-93 slightly better than last year. Last in the brutal AL East.
Area of strength and promise: Outfield/Catcher
It remains to be seen if Adam Jones will live up to his potential. The good news is that he is still young at 24. Does he have the resolve and determination to take his game to the next level? I'm not sure I see him being a star in this league, but he can be above average and serviceable. I'm surprised he has only 10 stolen bases each of the past two seasons.
Markakis is the most credentialed player roaming the outfield and is also young at 26. While he is a solid .300 type guy, he is not a devastating hitter. He had just 18 home runs in 642 at bats last year, one fewer than Adam Jones had in only 473 at bats. He handles the bat well and is a guy that Oriole fans probably want around for some time to come, but unless he develops some more power, he is not going to be a feared hitter.
Left field is going to be manned by Felix Pie to start, but he is just a holding place for Noland Reimold. Pie will tease you with flashes of brilliance, but he is not consistent enough to be an everyday above average starter in MLB. Reimold had a very nice rookie season. He hit 15 home runs in just 358 at bats and stole 8 bases. He too is 26 and we will have to wait and see if he can keep that pace for an entire season and hit around 25 home runs while still keeping his average around .280.
Luke Scott is a backup outfielder and will DH as well. This guy is your prototypical AL power hitter that does little else for you. He hit 25 home runs last year in 449 at bats, but struck out 104 times and is a .250 hitter. He'll give you the bell ringer every now and then, but he's not a guy you can count on to get on base.
Matt Wieters, 23, gets a tremendous amount of hype for a catcher. In his rookie season he hit .288 with 9 homers in 354 at bats. I don't see why he can't build on that and be around a .300 hitter with 20 home run type power. That's a tremendous advantage to get that kind of production out of your catcher.
Areas of Concern: Everywhere Else
Garrett Atkins is an interesting pickup to play first base. At 30, he is borderline to fit into the O's youth movement. Perhaps he is just mid-season trade bait. He's played his entire career at hitter friendly Coors Field, so you would expect some big power numbers. Last year his numbers were awful. He hit .226 with 9 home runs in 354 at bats. His numbers had been trailing off since his 2006 breakout season, but last year was a big drop. Perhaps a change of scenery will help, but he's been bad again this spring. If the O's are hoping to get 20+ home runs and a .300 BA out this guy, I think they'll be very disappointed. I don't see Atkins being the answer at first.
At second we have the face of the Orioles at this point, Brian Roberts. Roberts is solid, the problem is that he's starting to get a little age on him in contrast to the team's rebuilding plans. He could be traded one of these years. As he's aged, his stolen bases have dropped. After a career high 50 in 2007 it dropped to 40 and then 30 last year. I'd expect to see him settle in somewhere around the 20's. The good news is that as he's lost some speed, he's gained some pop. He hit 16 home runs last year which was the most since his career high in 2005 of 18. He should again continue to give strong production from a position usually weak with the bat.
Izturis at short is barely worth mentioning. He'll give you little offensively. He's not quite as bad as having your pitcher hit, but not far from it.
Tejada plays third and is about to turn 36. It puzzles me greatly that they would bring him back at this age while they are trying to build a young team. I suppose he's just a rental, but the O's don't need a trip down memory land. He's hit a mere 27 home runs in 1267 at bats over the past two years and he's not going to swipe many bases. He may be around .300, but I don't see him as a big time impact player. It seems to stunt the team's growth.
Pitching staff:
Millwood will anchor the staff, but at 35 is he going to be around to see the team win again? Jeremy Gutherie had an ERA over 5 last year after two solid seasons. I don't know that he'll return as low as the 3's and be the ace of the staff for years to come, but I think he'll be much better than 5.04. So, they could be solid at 1 and 2 if Gutherie returns to form. Next up is the youth movement. I like where they are going, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot this year. There are high expectations from the 4th overall pick of a couple of years ago, Brian Matusz. It wasn't a bad start to his career last year in the 8 games he started. The question is how good can he be and how soon. If he lives up to expectations early, it could change the look of the staff. At the end it's Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez, both coming off rookie seasons. Bergesen's was much better than Hernandez's, but considering their youth it is hard to expect these guys to give you a ton of quality starts. Overall, if Gutherie comes back to form, the pitching staff has some promise. How good will it be this year? I'd still expect the starting pitchers to be below average and facing the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox won't help. Still they have a good veteran to teach some good young arms, so something good could develop over the next few years.
Mike Gonzalez is the closer, at least for now. He had opportunities to be the man in Atlanta and couldn't get it done whether due to injury or performance. He is a talented pitcher but whether he could put it all together and stay healthy remains to be seen. Supporting Gonzalez are some guys that might not provide much support. Johnson and Meredith are okay. After that, it's really a struggle. If the young starting pitchers can't go deep into games, it could take a toll on the bullpen and the team.
Overall:
The Orioles have some good young talent in the outfield and at the starting pitching positions. Unfortunately they lack a big time, big impact hitter. They'll score some runs, but not enough. The lineup will be below average. The starting pitching staff could surprise some people this year, but being so young it's hard to count on them being solid and consistent. The starting pitching could be average this year and above average in the coming years if the young arms develop. The bullpen looks to be a weakness in terms of depth and not having a proven closer. For a team that has virtually no shot at making the playoffs considering the division they are in, I'm disappointed in the Atkins and Tejada moves. Again, they are probably just rentals, but the infield doesn't have a guy in his 20's on it. That doesn't sound like a young, rebuilding team to me. I wouldn't expect much production from either one. Atkins could prove me wrong and hang around for a while. We'll see. The O's need to keep brining in young talent because this is still not their year.
Prediction: 69-93 slightly better than last year. Last in the brutal AL East.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Final 4 preview
I can't go into full predictive analysis for the Final 4. It makes me nauseated to just think about West Virginia playing Duke in the Final 4. I'm trying to remain calm. This is the type of thing I would dream of when I was shooting baskets out in my driveway as a youngster. Good vs Evil in the Final 4. The difference is that I made sure the Mountaineers always won in the pretend games, but here they may not. As much as I would be disappointed if the Mountaineers lost to Duke and I watched the Blue Devils go on to win another championship, I cannot judge the success of the Mountaineers' season based on Duke's success. The Mountaineers have had the best basketball season of my life by a good margin, so there should be no room for bitterness no matter what the result. It's all gravy from here on out. Like Ryan, you can buy your Mountaineer Final 4 t-shirt and that can never be taken away from you.
On to the brief analysis. If you've read my blog, it should come as no surprise that I like Butler over Michigan St. and rather easily. The Bulldogs are just better to me. I'll call the Mountaineers versus Blue Devils a toss up. I'm too close to this thing to analyze effectively, but it feels like it will come down to the final seconds to me. Either way, you'd have to give the edge in the finals to the winner of that game.
Here are my odds of winning it all (Duke is slight favorite because I'd trust them a little more to handle Butler or Mich St. in the Finals):
Duke 33%
WV 31%
Butler 24%
Mich St. 12%
On to the brief analysis. If you've read my blog, it should come as no surprise that I like Butler over Michigan St. and rather easily. The Bulldogs are just better to me. I'll call the Mountaineers versus Blue Devils a toss up. I'm too close to this thing to analyze effectively, but it feels like it will come down to the final seconds to me. Either way, you'd have to give the edge in the finals to the winner of that game.
Here are my odds of winning it all (Duke is slight favorite because I'd trust them a little more to handle Butler or Mich St. in the Finals):
Duke 33%
WV 31%
Butler 24%
Mich St. 12%
Monday, March 29, 2010
Final 4 Fortune
For the vast majority of teams to make it to the Final 4 it takes luck and skill. This year it was required for all four teams. Here's a look at how they got here.
Michigan St. - the "luckiest" team in the tournament. Let's start with the fact that they have won 4 games by a combined 13 points. Only one game, Northern Iowa, did they win by more than one possession. Let's also consider their road to the Final 4. After a narrow victory in the first round, they faced what would be their toughest opponent. After a tremendous start by Michigan St., the Maryland Terrapins came storming back and looked like they had the game won until a backup hit a buzzer beating three to win it. Next they avoided Kansas, who almost assuredly would have thumped them, and played Northern Iowa instead. UNI used up all of their magical pixie dust against Kansas and the Spartans rolled. Next our fortunate Final 4 team avoided both Georgetown and Ohio St. to instead play Tennessee. Again the Spartans pulled it out the end against an opponent who was not all that strong. So, where's the skill? Well, I have to give credit to Michigan St. for hanging in there after losing their best player against Maryland. They handled Northern Iowa and gave themselves a chance against Tennessee and here they are. I think the odds are against them in the Final 4 and think they are the weakest team remaining, but the way this crazy tournament has gone that may be just where they need to be.
Butler - the team that has earned their spot more than any other team. The Bulldogs crushed UTEP in the first round, a team many experts picked to win that game. After beating the Racers in their "ugly" game of the tournament by just two, Butler had to play the 1 and 2 seeds to make it to the Final 4. They played well throughout and did not look inferior in any way. The road was tough, but so were the Bulldogs who I have been praising and calling my dark horse from the start. They even outrebounded was supposed to be a bigger more athletic Kansas St. team by 9. Hayward, Howard, and Mack are solid and I have been extremely impressed with Hayward in particular. He gives me a little Mike Gansey feel, except probably a little better and more rounded. So where's the luck? They did avoid Vanderbilt in the second round, which may have saved them considering how they played against Murray St. Then they played Syracuse without their big man, Onuaku. Finally, Xavier helped Butler out a little by taking Kansas St. to double overtime. I have trouble imagining these twenty year old beastly athletes being tired with a rest day in between, but the Wildcats did look a little sluggish. Perhaps the Bulldogs best fortune of the tournament comes next. They should have every opportunity to beat the Spartans if they play well. Should they get to the National Championship game, anything can happen.
West Virginia - the team that turns ugly into beautiful results. The Mountaineers have been a slow start team all year and they were again as they got down 10-0 to Morgan St. in the first round. They went on to hammer their opponents in that game. In the second round it was a solid performance as they slowed the fast paced Missouri Tigers down. Some good fortune came to the Mountaineers in the third round. First they avoided New Mexico. Secondly, Washington played completely awful. The Mountaineers turned it over 23 times and still won easily, which speak to the mess of a game that it was. They shot only 40% from the field and 27% from 3. With those turnovers and that shooting percentage a team really shouldn't win, particularly not by 13. It had to be different in the next round as West Virginia played Kentucky, the best team remaining in the tournament, didn't it? Well, yes and no. The Mountaineers did only turn it over 12 times, but the strength of the team, rebounding, was taking away. In the Washington game, WV outrebounded the Huskies by 16. Against Kentucky they were outrebounded by 11. That usually spells disaster for the Mountaineers. However, Kentucky couldn't shoot from outside and the Mountaineers, much to everyone’s surprise, were on fire from three in the first half. The Mountaineers were more methodical in the second half and earned some easy buckets, but they still finished at 44% from 3 versus Kentucky's 12%. That was the difference. Does West Virginia force teams to look ugly or do they just get lucky and catch teams on a bad day? Maybe a little of both. How long can it continue? It's going to be hard to outrebound Duke, so they will again have to win in some other way.
Duke - the team that was the biggest winner before the first tip. There was no question that Duke had the easiest draw when the brackets came out. Louisville could have been dangerous in the second round, but they were asleep in the first 10 minutes against Cal and could never recover. Cal offered little resistance. Purdue too was an easy match without Hummel. Duke was probably fortunate that somebody else, anybody else, didn't get through that section. Then, the only game that any other #1 seed would have had even a remote chance of losing had they had Duke's path was Baylor. As good as Baylor was considering their history, it still wasn't a top level team. However, Duke's best player, Singler had a terrible game. Baylor wins the game if they could have rebounded, which they could not. Part of that is a credit to Duke and part was because Baylor's big man fouled out and played little in the second half. I'll give Duke credit for handling each team without any of their games being all that close, but they should write a thank you letter to the selection committee. As they go forward they are the only #1 seed remaining and could easily wind up winning the tournament. However, should they have to go through West Virginia and Butler they will have to beat two teams better than any they have faced this tournament and each of those two teams has already beaten somebody better than Duke.
Michigan St. - the "luckiest" team in the tournament. Let's start with the fact that they have won 4 games by a combined 13 points. Only one game, Northern Iowa, did they win by more than one possession. Let's also consider their road to the Final 4. After a narrow victory in the first round, they faced what would be their toughest opponent. After a tremendous start by Michigan St., the Maryland Terrapins came storming back and looked like they had the game won until a backup hit a buzzer beating three to win it. Next they avoided Kansas, who almost assuredly would have thumped them, and played Northern Iowa instead. UNI used up all of their magical pixie dust against Kansas and the Spartans rolled. Next our fortunate Final 4 team avoided both Georgetown and Ohio St. to instead play Tennessee. Again the Spartans pulled it out the end against an opponent who was not all that strong. So, where's the skill? Well, I have to give credit to Michigan St. for hanging in there after losing their best player against Maryland. They handled Northern Iowa and gave themselves a chance against Tennessee and here they are. I think the odds are against them in the Final 4 and think they are the weakest team remaining, but the way this crazy tournament has gone that may be just where they need to be.
Butler - the team that has earned their spot more than any other team. The Bulldogs crushed UTEP in the first round, a team many experts picked to win that game. After beating the Racers in their "ugly" game of the tournament by just two, Butler had to play the 1 and 2 seeds to make it to the Final 4. They played well throughout and did not look inferior in any way. The road was tough, but so were the Bulldogs who I have been praising and calling my dark horse from the start. They even outrebounded was supposed to be a bigger more athletic Kansas St. team by 9. Hayward, Howard, and Mack are solid and I have been extremely impressed with Hayward in particular. He gives me a little Mike Gansey feel, except probably a little better and more rounded. So where's the luck? They did avoid Vanderbilt in the second round, which may have saved them considering how they played against Murray St. Then they played Syracuse without their big man, Onuaku. Finally, Xavier helped Butler out a little by taking Kansas St. to double overtime. I have trouble imagining these twenty year old beastly athletes being tired with a rest day in between, but the Wildcats did look a little sluggish. Perhaps the Bulldogs best fortune of the tournament comes next. They should have every opportunity to beat the Spartans if they play well. Should they get to the National Championship game, anything can happen.
West Virginia - the team that turns ugly into beautiful results. The Mountaineers have been a slow start team all year and they were again as they got down 10-0 to Morgan St. in the first round. They went on to hammer their opponents in that game. In the second round it was a solid performance as they slowed the fast paced Missouri Tigers down. Some good fortune came to the Mountaineers in the third round. First they avoided New Mexico. Secondly, Washington played completely awful. The Mountaineers turned it over 23 times and still won easily, which speak to the mess of a game that it was. They shot only 40% from the field and 27% from 3. With those turnovers and that shooting percentage a team really shouldn't win, particularly not by 13. It had to be different in the next round as West Virginia played Kentucky, the best team remaining in the tournament, didn't it? Well, yes and no. The Mountaineers did only turn it over 12 times, but the strength of the team, rebounding, was taking away. In the Washington game, WV outrebounded the Huskies by 16. Against Kentucky they were outrebounded by 11. That usually spells disaster for the Mountaineers. However, Kentucky couldn't shoot from outside and the Mountaineers, much to everyone’s surprise, were on fire from three in the first half. The Mountaineers were more methodical in the second half and earned some easy buckets, but they still finished at 44% from 3 versus Kentucky's 12%. That was the difference. Does West Virginia force teams to look ugly or do they just get lucky and catch teams on a bad day? Maybe a little of both. How long can it continue? It's going to be hard to outrebound Duke, so they will again have to win in some other way.
Duke - the team that was the biggest winner before the first tip. There was no question that Duke had the easiest draw when the brackets came out. Louisville could have been dangerous in the second round, but they were asleep in the first 10 minutes against Cal and could never recover. Cal offered little resistance. Purdue too was an easy match without Hummel. Duke was probably fortunate that somebody else, anybody else, didn't get through that section. Then, the only game that any other #1 seed would have had even a remote chance of losing had they had Duke's path was Baylor. As good as Baylor was considering their history, it still wasn't a top level team. However, Duke's best player, Singler had a terrible game. Baylor wins the game if they could have rebounded, which they could not. Part of that is a credit to Duke and part was because Baylor's big man fouled out and played little in the second half. I'll give Duke credit for handling each team without any of their games being all that close, but they should write a thank you letter to the selection committee. As they go forward they are the only #1 seed remaining and could easily wind up winning the tournament. However, should they have to go through West Virginia and Butler they will have to beat two teams better than any they have faced this tournament and each of those two teams has already beaten somebody better than Duke.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Sweet 16 - Day 2 Preview
The South bracket seems a fairly easy one to call, at least tonight's games. I've hammered on Purdue all tournament long, why stop now? I'll give the credit for making it to the Sweet 16 without Hummel in two close victories, but Duke will face another weak opponent on their trip to the Final 4. Duke should win. I hope the Boilermakers prove me wrong, but I doubt it. In the other game, I think St. Mary's run is up. I like the Gaels, but they've played a couple of teams weak inside and I think Baylor will handle them a little better. The Bears and Blue Devils should meet. Baylor is a pretty solid team, but Final 4 material? I don't know. I said at the beginning that the Blue Devils had an easy path through their bracket and it still looks that way to me.
Duke 53%
Baylor 34%
Purdue 8%
St. Mary's 5%
In the Midwest you would have had to be discouraged when the brackets came out if you were a Buckeye fan. You had to figure they would need to beat Georgetown and Kansas to get to the Final 4, which would seem unlikely even to an optimist. As it turns out the Buckeyes just need to beat Tennessee and either Michigan St. (without their best player) or Northern Iowa. How sweet is that? The Buckeyes are solid and are the favorite to make it through, but let's not forget they needed a buzzer beating heave against lowly Michigan in the Big 10 tournament, so let's not advance them so fast. I am not a fan of Rocky Top, so naturally I tend to not give them the credit they deserve. However I would take the winner of the Tennessee vs. Ohio St. game over either of the other two teams. I like the Buckeyes to beat Northern Iowa, who will keep the Cinderella shoes on for one more game. Here are my odds of going to the Final 4.
Ohio St. 39%
Tennessee 24%
Northern Iowa 20%
Michigan St. 17%
Duke 53%
Baylor 34%
Purdue 8%
St. Mary's 5%
In the Midwest you would have had to be discouraged when the brackets came out if you were a Buckeye fan. You had to figure they would need to beat Georgetown and Kansas to get to the Final 4, which would seem unlikely even to an optimist. As it turns out the Buckeyes just need to beat Tennessee and either Michigan St. (without their best player) or Northern Iowa. How sweet is that? The Buckeyes are solid and are the favorite to make it through, but let's not forget they needed a buzzer beating heave against lowly Michigan in the Big 10 tournament, so let's not advance them so fast. I am not a fan of Rocky Top, so naturally I tend to not give them the credit they deserve. However I would take the winner of the Tennessee vs. Ohio St. game over either of the other two teams. I like the Buckeyes to beat Northern Iowa, who will keep the Cinderella shoes on for one more game. Here are my odds of going to the Final 4.
Ohio St. 39%
Tennessee 24%
Northern Iowa 20%
Michigan St. 17%
Mountaineers/Bulldogs win
The West Virginia versus Washington game had to be one of the ugliest I have seen at the sweet 16 level. West Virginia had 23 turnovers and Washington 21. I don't know that Truck Bryant would have helped, but I don't know that he could have hurt. Ebanks had a whopping 8 turnovers. I've never been impressed with his ball handling. It would be effective but look ugly. Last night it was just ugly. He's a good passer if you get him within 25 feet of the bucket, but his dribbling could use some work. The Mountaineers won this game where they've won many before - on the glass. They outrebounded the Huskies 41-25 and turned that margin into 9 more shot attempts than Washington posted. The shooting percentages were nearly identical, so the extra attempts were important. I don't think the Mountaineers can do the same thing against Kentucky. They will not outrebound them by 16. I give the Mountaineers a shot, but they are going to have to shoot well. Kentucky is good. No matter the result on Saturday and no matter how ugly it's looked at times, a Mountaineer fan can't complain about the success they've had this year. They have consistently been ranked in the top 10, they won the Big East tournament, and they made it to an Elite 8. I heard Huggins say last night how much they have improved. He said that he told them throughout the year that they were the worst defensive team he had in ten or twelve years, but they have improved their defense greatly in the past month. I can't argue with any of that, Huggy Bear. They were bad and lately they've been much better on defense. Kentucky, however, will be a stiff test.
I say plenty of things that don't turn out to look to smart, so I would like to take this time to point you to previous posts concerning the Butler Bulldogs. I've pegged them as a dark horse from the beginning and wasn't surprised by their win last night. I give them a good shot against Kansas St. and even in the Final Four (should they make it) against Ohio St. or any of the other teams in that bracket remaining. I don't think they could pull off winning the whole thing should they face Kentucky, WV, or Duke, but they just might get there.
I say plenty of things that don't turn out to look to smart, so I would like to take this time to point you to previous posts concerning the Butler Bulldogs. I've pegged them as a dark horse from the beginning and wasn't surprised by their win last night. I give them a good shot against Kansas St. and even in the Final Four (should they make it) against Ohio St. or any of the other teams in that bracket remaining. I don't think they could pull off winning the whole thing should they face Kentucky, WV, or Duke, but they just might get there.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Sweet 16 preview - Day 1
The West is the one bracket where I picked all Sweet 16 teams correctly, so clearly I didn't see any surprises emerging from that region. Looking into the next round, I'd have to stick with the favorites, Syracuse and Kansas St. However, I really like Butler (as I've noted before) and Onuaku continues to be out, so I give the Bulldogs a decent shot. In the other game, I think Kansas St. is a good bit better than Xavier, but I'm still not sure how much I trust the Wildcats. In a head to head matchup between Kansas St. and Syracuse I'd have to call it a toss up. Since this bracket produced 4 solid, talented teams, it may be the most wide open bracket at this point. It's hard to pick a favorite and hard to dismiss any of the four teams. If I had to pick a team, I'm going to go with my Big East bias and give Syracuse a very slight edge. Here are my odds of a Final 4 trip:
Syracuse 34%
Kansas St. 33%
Butler 17%
Xavier 16%
The East still has its top 2 seeds, but an 11 and a 12 join them. Cornell isn't a huge shock to me. If they are hitting their threes they can be a very dangerous team. They didn't play particularly well down the stretch in the regular season, so I was surprised at how easily they won each of their first two tournament games. These were not down to the wire buzzer beater type games. The Big Red had it sown up early and did so in dominating fashion. They have their 7 footer inside to go with the Ivy League 3's and I think he differentiates this team from most pesky Ivy League teams. I haven't seen Washington play and gave the Pac 10 no respect coming into the tournament. However, the Left Coast has performed well and Washington keeps on rolling. After pulling out a close one against Marquette, the Huskies did surprise me by blowing out the Lobos. In the games today, Cornell has to be considered a fairly big underdog. Kentucky has looked very impressive and my have too much talent for the Big Red. West Virginia is actually the smallest favorite on the day. I think this is because most people, including me, don't know what to expect from Washington. Are they really that good? We will also see how the injury to Bryant affects the Mountaineers. Mazzulla is the more confident and better player at this point, so some would argue that this is a good thing. I wouldn't go that far. Mazzulla often gets into foul trouble in 20 minutes of playing time and he is now going to need to play 30+. Also, Washington's best player is their point guard, Isaiah Tomas. I think the Mountaineers will need Mazzulla on the floor most of the game, so hopefully he stays out of foul trouble. I'll go chalk in this bracket. If the Mountaineers and Wildcats do meet, I think Kentucky would have the edge, but don't count the Mountaineers out. They will fight their opponent all the way.
Kentucky 53%
WV 27%
Washington 13%
Cornell 7%
Syracuse 34%
Kansas St. 33%
Butler 17%
Xavier 16%
The East still has its top 2 seeds, but an 11 and a 12 join them. Cornell isn't a huge shock to me. If they are hitting their threes they can be a very dangerous team. They didn't play particularly well down the stretch in the regular season, so I was surprised at how easily they won each of their first two tournament games. These were not down to the wire buzzer beater type games. The Big Red had it sown up early and did so in dominating fashion. They have their 7 footer inside to go with the Ivy League 3's and I think he differentiates this team from most pesky Ivy League teams. I haven't seen Washington play and gave the Pac 10 no respect coming into the tournament. However, the Left Coast has performed well and Washington keeps on rolling. After pulling out a close one against Marquette, the Huskies did surprise me by blowing out the Lobos. In the games today, Cornell has to be considered a fairly big underdog. Kentucky has looked very impressive and my have too much talent for the Big Red. West Virginia is actually the smallest favorite on the day. I think this is because most people, including me, don't know what to expect from Washington. Are they really that good? We will also see how the injury to Bryant affects the Mountaineers. Mazzulla is the more confident and better player at this point, so some would argue that this is a good thing. I wouldn't go that far. Mazzulla often gets into foul trouble in 20 minutes of playing time and he is now going to need to play 30+. Also, Washington's best player is their point guard, Isaiah Tomas. I think the Mountaineers will need Mazzulla on the floor most of the game, so hopefully he stays out of foul trouble. I'll go chalk in this bracket. If the Mountaineers and Wildcats do meet, I think Kentucky would have the edge, but don't count the Mountaineers out. They will fight their opponent all the way.
Kentucky 53%
WV 27%
Washington 13%
Cornell 7%
Friday, March 19, 2010
Richmond/Big East stink it up
First let's deal with the Spiders. It was a good season. Third place in the regular season in the A-10, a trip to the conference championship, and a 7 seed in the NCAA tournament is a very nice year. So, let's give them the credit they deserve. As for yesterday, it was a poor effort. St. Mary's wanted it more and was much more physical and the Spiders were just beat up. Richmond's problem all year has been on the glass, but yesterday they took their weakness to new lows. At one point, the rebounding edge was 36-11. I don't think I've ever seen anything like that with two teams on the same level playing each other. The ball bounces into your hands 11 times. Anderson and Gonzalvez did their thing, but there was absolutely no support from the interior players. Gonzalvez led the team with 5 rebounds. That's sad that your guard is the only one strong enough to get a board. That's what they will miss most about him next year, his toughness. Justin Harper and Darrius Garrett have some presence inside, but they played a combined 34 minutes. Both should have been on the floor practically the whole game to help on the boards. Geriot just looks like he doesn't belong. He's slow, he can't jump and he's just not a factor. I felt bad for Anderson. As good as he is, he's under 6 feet tall and he can't control the boards. The Spiders didn't give him a chance yesterday. I would normally say St. Mary's has a great shot against Villanova, but top teams that have a first round scare generally bounce back well in the second round. Still, I think the difference between St. Mary's and Villanova is small, so it could be a good game.
Next, let's discuss the Big East's dismal performance. I am a huge Big East proponent and generally give them more credit than they deserve, but that was awful. It's not that they went 1-3, it's that they went 1-3 and were the favorite in each game, heavily in two of them, and looked bad doing it. Villanova struggled down the stretch, but Robert Morris? Seriously? Until overtime the only way Villanova could score was from the foul line. Notre Dame’s loss isn't surprising. I thought ODU had a great chance. ND plays low scoring close games that anybody can win. They ended up on the short end. It's that simple. Marquette was a bit disappointing because they really should have won that game, but they just couldn't get out of their own way down the stretch. Georgetown was a huge shock. They played fine offensively, but they lacked defensive intensity. I will say to the Hoyas defense that it was as well as Ohio could possibly play. Anything they threw up seemed to go in, whether it was a quality shot or not. Sometimes it's just your day. It was the Bobcats day. What does this mean for WV, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh? It's not good. I would be worried anyway, but yesterday's results have me even more concerned that today's game against Morgan St. might not be a blow out for the Mountaineers.
If I had to pick a team to watch for after yesterday's games it would be Butler. I liked them a lot coming into this tournament and thought they had a great chance to get to the Sweet 16. My concern was that everybody was hyping UTEP. The Bulldogs easily took care of them in a day of close games. I thought they were a good bit better than Vanderbilt if they met the Commodores in the second round, but Murray St. took them out first. Now it seems like an easy road to the Sweet 16 for the Bulldogs and if Syracuse is not healthy and ready to go, then look out. The Bulldogs could pull off the upset there and again in the next round to charge right into the Final 4.
Let’s hope today’s games go a little bit better than yesterday’s.
Next, let's discuss the Big East's dismal performance. I am a huge Big East proponent and generally give them more credit than they deserve, but that was awful. It's not that they went 1-3, it's that they went 1-3 and were the favorite in each game, heavily in two of them, and looked bad doing it. Villanova struggled down the stretch, but Robert Morris? Seriously? Until overtime the only way Villanova could score was from the foul line. Notre Dame’s loss isn't surprising. I thought ODU had a great chance. ND plays low scoring close games that anybody can win. They ended up on the short end. It's that simple. Marquette was a bit disappointing because they really should have won that game, but they just couldn't get out of their own way down the stretch. Georgetown was a huge shock. They played fine offensively, but they lacked defensive intensity. I will say to the Hoyas defense that it was as well as Ohio could possibly play. Anything they threw up seemed to go in, whether it was a quality shot or not. Sometimes it's just your day. It was the Bobcats day. What does this mean for WV, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh? It's not good. I would be worried anyway, but yesterday's results have me even more concerned that today's game against Morgan St. might not be a blow out for the Mountaineers.
If I had to pick a team to watch for after yesterday's games it would be Butler. I liked them a lot coming into this tournament and thought they had a great chance to get to the Sweet 16. My concern was that everybody was hyping UTEP. The Bulldogs easily took care of them in a day of close games. I thought they were a good bit better than Vanderbilt if they met the Commodores in the second round, but Murray St. took them out first. Now it seems like an easy road to the Sweet 16 for the Bulldogs and if Syracuse is not healthy and ready to go, then look out. The Bulldogs could pull off the upset there and again in the next round to charge right into the Final 4.
Let’s hope today’s games go a little bit better than yesterday’s.
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