It has the look and feel to me that I could be analyzing the two worst teams in baseball. What a treat! Right now the Pirates have a 5 game edge over the league worst Orioles, but I'd bet it will be a close race coming down the stretch. Since the Pirates have the edge we'll start with them.
The Pirates (9-12) continue to blow away the competition when it comes to a negative run differential. They are 9-12 but have been outscored by 77 runs (37 more than the O's). They somehow continue to find ways to win close games or they would have a record similar to the Orioles. Ohlendorf remains on the DL which is really hurting the pitching staff as they have not been able to find a replacement. Take for instance their next two scheduled starters. Brian Burres goes today (ERA 9.31) and really is not a major league caliber pitcher. Chalrie Morton (16.20) is a huge disappointment at the 4 spot and goes tomorrow. So, those two games seem very unlikely for the Pirates to win. To avoid a losing streak the Pirates will need their opening day starter, Zach Duke (ERA 6.11), to win in the third game. Maholm's 4.83 ERA is the only respectable one among current starters other than Jeff Karstens 2.70 after his one spot start. He'll get another chance, but we've seen him before and it is very likely his ERA will go above 5 quickly (7.31 ERA in 16 minor league innings this year). So, the Pirates starting pitching is in total disarray. The bullpen is not faring much better. The strong back 4 hasn't been so strong. Meek's 0.64 ERA is awesome while the other three have not performed well. Much of this time is in garbage time when it doesn't matter, so it's not fair to be too hard on Hanrahan (ERA 9.95) or Donnelly (ERA 7.00) who have both shut teams down when it mattered. However, the closer, Dotel (ERA 10.61) has blown 2 of his 5 save chances. Luckily, the Pirates won both of those games. Still, the back end of the bullpen is questionable at this point. All this adds up to the Pirates giving up 30 more runs than the next highest team (Dodgers). The hitting isn't much better. The Pirates have scored more runs than only the Braves, Indians, and Orioles (lowest in league). McCutchen continues to be a stud and has the look of a great centerpiece for the Pirates future. He is hitting over .300 with 3 homers and 10 stolen bases. LaRoche has played in just 2/3 of the games because of some nagging injuries, but he is hitting .380 with two homers in his time. He is battling for a spot on the team when Pedro Alvarez is called up. If LaRoche continues to perform it could bump Clement (Pedro slides to first) or Iwamura (LaRoche goes to second) out of a job. Doumit is on a hot streak and has now posted some pretty good numbers, .288 with 3 homers. The rest have not fared so well. Cedeno (.222 with 2 homers) has given what was expected of him. Milledge (.228) has had great at bats, but the balls just are not falling for him. He has yet to homer, but his approach at the plate has earned him the 3 or 5 spot in the lineup most nights. I think he could be in for a good season. Jones (.211, 4 home runs, 2 steals) has been a bit of a disappointment. He is on pace to hit 30 home runs, but there is still a concern there that he was a flash in the pan. He needs to find some consistency. The biggest offseason acquisition for position players is also the biggest bust so far. Iwamura (.215, 2 homers) is a guy who is supposed to be a steady .285 type hitter. He batted lead off for a while but has since sunk in the lineup. Hopefully he can turn it around. The bench production has also really dropped off as Church, Crosby, and Young have fizzled. This team is hanging on to respectability, but it's losing its grip. They need Ohlendorf back soon and some people to step up. Donnie Veal could be a quality starter down the road; I'd be interested in seeing him getting a call up soon if the starters continue to fail to perform.
Baltimore (4-17), as mentioned before, has scored the least amount of runs in the league. The injury to Brian Roberts certainly hasn't helped. Adam Jones (.202, 3 homers, 1 steal) and Garrett Atkins (.238, 0 homers) have to be two of the prime culprits. The production has come from Ty Wiggington (.322, 6 homers). He's been around a while and he has some power, but nobody expects him to keep up this sort of production. Markakis has picked up his average (.284) but still has just one home run. Wieters too has just one home run and a solid average (.297). Tejada's .284 average with 3 homers is fine for what the Orioles are looking for. Other than that, there is nobody else even worth mentioning. The starting pitching continues to give the O's a chance with Millwood, Gutherie, Matusz, and Hernandez all in the 4's or below (Millwood 3.38) in ERA. The O's may be looking for a 5th starter since Bergesen (12.19 ERA) hasn't gotten it done. The bullpen continues to underwhelm. The O's have 4 saves by 4 different pitchers, one of which belongs to closer Mike Gonzalez (injured). Berken and Ohman have done a nice job while Albers and Johnson have really struggled. Not too much exciting going on at the AAA affiliate in Norfolk either. The one bright spot has been Jake Arrieta. The 24 year old has compiled a 0.36 ERA for the Tides in 4 starts. If he keeps it up, perhaps he could get a shot at that 5th spot.
Projections at 30 game mark:
Pirates (@LA for 4, vs ChC 3, StL 2) 12-18
Orioles (vs NY, vs Bos 3, @ NY 3, @ Min 2) - tough stretch 6-24
Currently Back:
Pirates 1st - 5, wildcard - 3
Orioles 1st -12, wildcard - 9.5 (almost double figures)
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Friday, April 16, 2010
O's and Pirates update
For the Pirates and Orioles start to the season there is bad news and really bad news. Should we expect anything else? Let's start with the really bad news first. The Orioles are a league worst 1-9. The most obvious problem is the bullpen. Gonzalez has blown two of three save opportunities and the rest of the bullpen has not fared much better. It looked like a weakness of the team coming into the season and so far it has proven to be just that. If the Orioles get a quality start and score a few runs it still looks like it may be tough to hold onto a lead. That doesn't mean the Orioles have been getting a lot of leads. They have scored 29 runs in 10 games, which is not going to get it done. The 2.9/game barely bests Seattle and the only other team that is scoring less per game is 1-8 Houston in the National League. It's hard to envision the Orioles scoring a lot of runs consistently either. The questionable acquisitions of Atkins and Tejada have not proven wise so far. Atkins is hitting .222 with no homers and has as many strikeouts (9) as hits and walks combined. Tejada is batting .205 but has been a little more productive with two home runs and 7 RBIs. Jones is giving the team an average performance and continues to fail to live up to expectations. Izturis is useless with the bat. Luke Scott hits a dinger every now and then but mostly wiffs. Pie and Wiggington have performed well so far but that's doubtful to last. The biggest problem so far for the offense has been Roberts and Markakis. Two of the three biggest offensive weapons have done nothing so far and that should change and bring some more runs with it. Wieters has been good so far and continues to be the big hope for the future. He looks legit. Still, if you're big three are Roberts, Markakis, and Wieters and you play in the AL East, you're probably just not going to score enough runs to be competitive. The starting pitching has actually been pretty decent. Millwood continues to pitch well. Gutherie, Matusz, and Hernandez have been average. Bergersen has been terrible. The starters as a group look like they may keep the O's in some games. The question is if the offense can score enough runs and if the bullpen can hold a lead if they do. It's happened only once thus far. My concern about the optimism for the O's future is that you are building around Wieters, Markakis, Jones, Gutherie, and Matusz. There isn't much else there to be excited about. Matusz could be an ace. On the hitters’ side, it's becoming more doubtful that Jones is going to develop into a great hitter and while Wieters and Markakis handle the bat well, it remains to be seen if they will develop significant power. I'm not up on O's prospects, so there may be some guys in the pipeline to be excited about. I'm just not sure that the core young talent has the upside to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox even when they do develop.
Now to the Pirates who are 4-5. Considering they have played 6 road games and 3 at home, that doesn't appear so bad. However, they have won their close games, which they always won't do, so I don't think you could say they have played solidly so far. They have been outscored by 26 runs, the same margin as the Orioles. Part of that is due to the failed experiment of Hayden Penn. He was brought into a couple of games where the Pirates were behind and it turned into a rout. He and his 30.86 ERA in 3 games have since been cut. Also, the Pirates #2 Ohlendorf had back spasms and missed a start. Because of an odd technical rule for the first two weeks of the season, the Pirates couldn't call up anybody on their 40 man roster. Their worst AAA starter got the ball to fill in and he was rocked. The encouraging thing for the Pirates is the bullpen, particularly the back end. They had two good young arms (Hanrahan and Meek) and they built around that this season with Dotel and Donnelly. If they get to those four guys, the Pirates should have a pretty good shot. Carrasco is decent as a middle reliever, but they Pirates don't have a long man and it's shown in games where they got behind early. For the starters, the Pirates look solid 1-3, but they need Ohlendorf to get back soon because they don't have anyone currently ready to step in. In fact, the 4 and 5 men for the Pirates really darken the picture for the Pirates this year. Charlie Morton has great stuff, but he seems to lack the mental toughness to fight out of jams and he gives up the long ball. The number 5 pitchers is anybody's guess. McCutchen's first crack at it didn't go so well. Because of days off, the Pirates are going with a 4 man rotation the next couple of weeks. On the hitting side, the Pirates are scoring 4.3/game, which is good enough to give them a chance. McCutchen and Jones are both just below .250 but both have been impact players, Jones with 3 homers and 1 SB and McCutchen with 1 homer and 5 SBs. Milledge and Iwamura have been solid, but Doumit has struggled in the middle of the lineup. LaRoche has also struggled and Clement seems to be on borrowed time as he has stunk in his first chance at an everyday job, especially looking bad against lefties. It doesn't sound too impressive, so how are they scoring? Cedeno has been surprisingly good at the bottom of the lineup and the bench has been awesome. The four non catching bench players (Church, Young, Raynor, and Crosby) all are hitting at least .300. Church, Young, and Crosby have driven in eight runs, which are just two less than the 4-7 hitters of Doumit, Milledge, Clement, and LaRoche. Three bench players almost equaling four starters in RBI batting position is not usually the way it works. What's the outlook? Can they hang in a while? The 1-3 starters will give them a chance and the bullpen can shut the door, but the Pirates need help at the last two rotation spots. If Ohlendorf is out a while it will really hurt. Offensively, Jones and McCutchen look like they will continue to make some noise with Iwamura and Milledge getting on base and giving these guys a chance. However, as a long time believer in Doumit, it looks like he may never live up to expectations. Clement looks bad and LaRoche isn't going to offer much. I think Church will soon take over in right and Jones will slide to first for Clement, which should help the lineup. They will continue to try to hold on until Pedro and his big bat arrive in late May. I don't think they can.
I've always thought that a team is not out of the playoff race until they are 10 games out. So, we'll keep the count and see how close the teams are to falling out of it. After just 10 games, the O's are surprisingly close.
O's 6 out of first, 5.5 out of wildcard
Pirates 2 out of first, 1.5 out of wildcard
Now to the Pirates who are 4-5. Considering they have played 6 road games and 3 at home, that doesn't appear so bad. However, they have won their close games, which they always won't do, so I don't think you could say they have played solidly so far. They have been outscored by 26 runs, the same margin as the Orioles. Part of that is due to the failed experiment of Hayden Penn. He was brought into a couple of games where the Pirates were behind and it turned into a rout. He and his 30.86 ERA in 3 games have since been cut. Also, the Pirates #2 Ohlendorf had back spasms and missed a start. Because of an odd technical rule for the first two weeks of the season, the Pirates couldn't call up anybody on their 40 man roster. Their worst AAA starter got the ball to fill in and he was rocked. The encouraging thing for the Pirates is the bullpen, particularly the back end. They had two good young arms (Hanrahan and Meek) and they built around that this season with Dotel and Donnelly. If they get to those four guys, the Pirates should have a pretty good shot. Carrasco is decent as a middle reliever, but they Pirates don't have a long man and it's shown in games where they got behind early. For the starters, the Pirates look solid 1-3, but they need Ohlendorf to get back soon because they don't have anyone currently ready to step in. In fact, the 4 and 5 men for the Pirates really darken the picture for the Pirates this year. Charlie Morton has great stuff, but he seems to lack the mental toughness to fight out of jams and he gives up the long ball. The number 5 pitchers is anybody's guess. McCutchen's first crack at it didn't go so well. Because of days off, the Pirates are going with a 4 man rotation the next couple of weeks. On the hitting side, the Pirates are scoring 4.3/game, which is good enough to give them a chance. McCutchen and Jones are both just below .250 but both have been impact players, Jones with 3 homers and 1 SB and McCutchen with 1 homer and 5 SBs. Milledge and Iwamura have been solid, but Doumit has struggled in the middle of the lineup. LaRoche has also struggled and Clement seems to be on borrowed time as he has stunk in his first chance at an everyday job, especially looking bad against lefties. It doesn't sound too impressive, so how are they scoring? Cedeno has been surprisingly good at the bottom of the lineup and the bench has been awesome. The four non catching bench players (Church, Young, Raynor, and Crosby) all are hitting at least .300. Church, Young, and Crosby have driven in eight runs, which are just two less than the 4-7 hitters of Doumit, Milledge, Clement, and LaRoche. Three bench players almost equaling four starters in RBI batting position is not usually the way it works. What's the outlook? Can they hang in a while? The 1-3 starters will give them a chance and the bullpen can shut the door, but the Pirates need help at the last two rotation spots. If Ohlendorf is out a while it will really hurt. Offensively, Jones and McCutchen look like they will continue to make some noise with Iwamura and Milledge getting on base and giving these guys a chance. However, as a long time believer in Doumit, it looks like he may never live up to expectations. Clement looks bad and LaRoche isn't going to offer much. I think Church will soon take over in right and Jones will slide to first for Clement, which should help the lineup. They will continue to try to hold on until Pedro and his big bat arrive in late May. I don't think they can.
I've always thought that a team is not out of the playoff race until they are 10 games out. So, we'll keep the count and see how close the teams are to falling out of it. After just 10 games, the O's are surprisingly close.
O's 6 out of first, 5.5 out of wildcard
Pirates 2 out of first, 1.5 out of wildcard
Monday, April 12, 2010
Pirates Season Preview
Area of strength and promise: Outfield/Corner Infield
Andrew McCutchen is the star of the show for the Pirates at age 23. He projects to be a 20 HR 40 SB guy with a good batting average and excellent defensive skills. He is a very good player to build your team around and had an excellent rookie season. Lastings Milledge is a very interesting player and his development could be key for the Pirates. He made it to the show at 21 and is now only 25. He may have had some success come to easily for him too early and lost favor with both the Mets and Nationals. In his only full season he hit 14 home runs and had 24 stolen bases. He could be around a 20-20 guy. He's been nothing but a model citizen who has been praised for his hard work and keeping his mouth shut since arriving in Pittsburgh. If he stays the course, it could be a big pickup for the Pirates. Currently Garrett Jones plays right field. The question with him is if he was a flash in the pan last year. Jones is 28 and made it to the big leagues for the first time last year, so if he's legit, he's a late bloomer. If he kept his home run pace up from last year (half season) he would hit over 40 and he would steal 20 bases. It's difficult to imagine he will keep those numbers up, ones that would make him a big name in the league. However, 30 home runs with 20 steals and a batting average around .275 would be still be very strong from that position. Jones may play first, him more natural position when Jose Tabata arrives later this year. Tabata is a fairly prized prospect that is said to have all the tools. Until then Jeff Clement, the 3rd overall pick in the 2005 draft as a catcher, will play first. He was a bust for the Mariners and the Pirates will give him probably half of a season to prove himself. Unless he does, 1B will be a weak spot on the team until Jones takes over. At 3B is Andy LaRoche. He is decent, but lacks power for a corner infield. He is also on borrowed time. Pedro Alvarez will take his spot at the end of May (so that the Pirates have another year of control over him) and this is the most anticipated debut of a prospect since Barry Bonds, even much bigger than McCutchen. Alvarez is expected to be a 40+ home run guy and to do that pretty quickly. So, for now the corner infield is a liability, but with Jones and Alvarez manning it in the middle of the season, it could be a power hitting combination. The outfield possesses some speed and pop.
Areas of Concern: Middle Infield
Iwamura is a decent pickup for the Pirates to play second, but probably will only be in Pittsburgh for one season. He is a quality hitter with little pop and fair speed. There is nothing exciting here and nothing in the pipeline for the Pirates. Cedeno is the same story at second, except he doesn't even handle the bat that well. Middle infield is a weakness with no help on the way.
Hard to Call: Catcher
Ryan Doumit, 29, has shown some good pop on his bat at times, but has not been able to stay healthy. A switch hitting power catcher is quite a luxury to have, but, except for one season, it has never seemed to work out that great. He could hit 20 homers, but he must stay healthy. The organization has some depth at the position including last year's first round pick Tony Sanchez. Considering the position the Pirates are in good shape, but they are currently asking Doumit to bat 4th, which may be a bit of a stretch.
Pitching staff:
Zach Duke had an excellent start to the year and then trailed off considerably. I don't see a lot of upside here, but he can be a guy to gobble up innings (213 last year) and keep his ERA around 4. He is a good guy to have in the 3 or 4 spot, but not ace caliber. Ohlendorf is the opposite of Duke. He finished very strong down the stretch and has good potential. He is an extremely smart pitcher with good stuff and could be a legitimate #2 guy with an ERA in the mid to high 3's. Maholm has pitched over 175 innings each of the last four seasons and had a very strong 2008 (3.71 ERA) followed by a disappointing 2009 (4.44). He battled some injuries last year and I would expect his 2010 ERA to dip below 4 if he can stay healthy. He is a nice #3 pitcher. Charlie Morton is a wildcard at the 4 spot. 2009 was decent and he is said to have a lot of potential, but he has yet to be consistent. He currently is a pitcher who you never know what you're going to get from. The 5 spot is still open. McCutchen took the first crack at it and got lit up. There are some good young arms in the minors, but the Pirates are likely going to struggle to get adequate innings from their 5 spot. Kevin Hart was supposed to be the guy, but he has been a disaster. Overall there is some potential here, but it still looks to be a little below average to me.
Octavio Dotel is the closer and while he's certainly not the best one in the league, he is serviceable and an upgrade from Matt Capps who couldn't get it done last year. Setting him up will be Hanrahan, Donnelly, Meek, Lopez, and Carrasco. It's a completely remodeled bullpen and one that should be much stronger. The Pirates have a couple of young arms in there, but overall they are taking a year by year approach to the bullpen, which is not a bad way to go. The pen should be an asset this year.
Overall:
The Pirates have McCutchen to lead the way and Alvarez to join him soon. That could be a big time twosome to build around. Where will the help come from? Will Milledge live up to his potential? Can Jones repeat last year's performance? Will Doumit stay healthy? The answers to those questions will determine Pirate run production. On the pitching side, it's a little more stable with the big question marks being at 4 and 5. It should be a staff that gives the offense a chance. The Pirates are not expected to jettison players at the trade deadline this year and I would expect them to compete for the whole season this time. Still, there's not enough there to go .500.
Prediction: 71-91 - hey at least it's not 100 losses right?
Andrew McCutchen is the star of the show for the Pirates at age 23. He projects to be a 20 HR 40 SB guy with a good batting average and excellent defensive skills. He is a very good player to build your team around and had an excellent rookie season. Lastings Milledge is a very interesting player and his development could be key for the Pirates. He made it to the show at 21 and is now only 25. He may have had some success come to easily for him too early and lost favor with both the Mets and Nationals. In his only full season he hit 14 home runs and had 24 stolen bases. He could be around a 20-20 guy. He's been nothing but a model citizen who has been praised for his hard work and keeping his mouth shut since arriving in Pittsburgh. If he stays the course, it could be a big pickup for the Pirates. Currently Garrett Jones plays right field. The question with him is if he was a flash in the pan last year. Jones is 28 and made it to the big leagues for the first time last year, so if he's legit, he's a late bloomer. If he kept his home run pace up from last year (half season) he would hit over 40 and he would steal 20 bases. It's difficult to imagine he will keep those numbers up, ones that would make him a big name in the league. However, 30 home runs with 20 steals and a batting average around .275 would be still be very strong from that position. Jones may play first, him more natural position when Jose Tabata arrives later this year. Tabata is a fairly prized prospect that is said to have all the tools. Until then Jeff Clement, the 3rd overall pick in the 2005 draft as a catcher, will play first. He was a bust for the Mariners and the Pirates will give him probably half of a season to prove himself. Unless he does, 1B will be a weak spot on the team until Jones takes over. At 3B is Andy LaRoche. He is decent, but lacks power for a corner infield. He is also on borrowed time. Pedro Alvarez will take his spot at the end of May (so that the Pirates have another year of control over him) and this is the most anticipated debut of a prospect since Barry Bonds, even much bigger than McCutchen. Alvarez is expected to be a 40+ home run guy and to do that pretty quickly. So, for now the corner infield is a liability, but with Jones and Alvarez manning it in the middle of the season, it could be a power hitting combination. The outfield possesses some speed and pop.
Areas of Concern: Middle Infield
Iwamura is a decent pickup for the Pirates to play second, but probably will only be in Pittsburgh for one season. He is a quality hitter with little pop and fair speed. There is nothing exciting here and nothing in the pipeline for the Pirates. Cedeno is the same story at second, except he doesn't even handle the bat that well. Middle infield is a weakness with no help on the way.
Hard to Call: Catcher
Ryan Doumit, 29, has shown some good pop on his bat at times, but has not been able to stay healthy. A switch hitting power catcher is quite a luxury to have, but, except for one season, it has never seemed to work out that great. He could hit 20 homers, but he must stay healthy. The organization has some depth at the position including last year's first round pick Tony Sanchez. Considering the position the Pirates are in good shape, but they are currently asking Doumit to bat 4th, which may be a bit of a stretch.
Pitching staff:
Zach Duke had an excellent start to the year and then trailed off considerably. I don't see a lot of upside here, but he can be a guy to gobble up innings (213 last year) and keep his ERA around 4. He is a good guy to have in the 3 or 4 spot, but not ace caliber. Ohlendorf is the opposite of Duke. He finished very strong down the stretch and has good potential. He is an extremely smart pitcher with good stuff and could be a legitimate #2 guy with an ERA in the mid to high 3's. Maholm has pitched over 175 innings each of the last four seasons and had a very strong 2008 (3.71 ERA) followed by a disappointing 2009 (4.44). He battled some injuries last year and I would expect his 2010 ERA to dip below 4 if he can stay healthy. He is a nice #3 pitcher. Charlie Morton is a wildcard at the 4 spot. 2009 was decent and he is said to have a lot of potential, but he has yet to be consistent. He currently is a pitcher who you never know what you're going to get from. The 5 spot is still open. McCutchen took the first crack at it and got lit up. There are some good young arms in the minors, but the Pirates are likely going to struggle to get adequate innings from their 5 spot. Kevin Hart was supposed to be the guy, but he has been a disaster. Overall there is some potential here, but it still looks to be a little below average to me.
Octavio Dotel is the closer and while he's certainly not the best one in the league, he is serviceable and an upgrade from Matt Capps who couldn't get it done last year. Setting him up will be Hanrahan, Donnelly, Meek, Lopez, and Carrasco. It's a completely remodeled bullpen and one that should be much stronger. The Pirates have a couple of young arms in there, but overall they are taking a year by year approach to the bullpen, which is not a bad way to go. The pen should be an asset this year.
Overall:
The Pirates have McCutchen to lead the way and Alvarez to join him soon. That could be a big time twosome to build around. Where will the help come from? Will Milledge live up to his potential? Can Jones repeat last year's performance? Will Doumit stay healthy? The answers to those questions will determine Pirate run production. On the pitching side, it's a little more stable with the big question marks being at 4 and 5. It should be a staff that gives the offense a chance. The Pirates are not expected to jettison players at the trade deadline this year and I would expect them to compete for the whole season this time. Still, there's not enough there to go .500.
Prediction: 71-91 - hey at least it's not 100 losses right?
O's Preview
Admittedly I am not up on the Orioles, but I'm getting there. So, for an outsider that doesn't know the team well, here's my analysis.
Area of strength and promise: Outfield/Catcher
It remains to be seen if Adam Jones will live up to his potential. The good news is that he is still young at 24. Does he have the resolve and determination to take his game to the next level? I'm not sure I see him being a star in this league, but he can be above average and serviceable. I'm surprised he has only 10 stolen bases each of the past two seasons.
Markakis is the most credentialed player roaming the outfield and is also young at 26. While he is a solid .300 type guy, he is not a devastating hitter. He had just 18 home runs in 642 at bats last year, one fewer than Adam Jones had in only 473 at bats. He handles the bat well and is a guy that Oriole fans probably want around for some time to come, but unless he develops some more power, he is not going to be a feared hitter.
Left field is going to be manned by Felix Pie to start, but he is just a holding place for Noland Reimold. Pie will tease you with flashes of brilliance, but he is not consistent enough to be an everyday above average starter in MLB. Reimold had a very nice rookie season. He hit 15 home runs in just 358 at bats and stole 8 bases. He too is 26 and we will have to wait and see if he can keep that pace for an entire season and hit around 25 home runs while still keeping his average around .280.
Luke Scott is a backup outfielder and will DH as well. This guy is your prototypical AL power hitter that does little else for you. He hit 25 home runs last year in 449 at bats, but struck out 104 times and is a .250 hitter. He'll give you the bell ringer every now and then, but he's not a guy you can count on to get on base.
Matt Wieters, 23, gets a tremendous amount of hype for a catcher. In his rookie season he hit .288 with 9 homers in 354 at bats. I don't see why he can't build on that and be around a .300 hitter with 20 home run type power. That's a tremendous advantage to get that kind of production out of your catcher.
Areas of Concern: Everywhere Else
Garrett Atkins is an interesting pickup to play first base. At 30, he is borderline to fit into the O's youth movement. Perhaps he is just mid-season trade bait. He's played his entire career at hitter friendly Coors Field, so you would expect some big power numbers. Last year his numbers were awful. He hit .226 with 9 home runs in 354 at bats. His numbers had been trailing off since his 2006 breakout season, but last year was a big drop. Perhaps a change of scenery will help, but he's been bad again this spring. If the O's are hoping to get 20+ home runs and a .300 BA out this guy, I think they'll be very disappointed. I don't see Atkins being the answer at first.
At second we have the face of the Orioles at this point, Brian Roberts. Roberts is solid, the problem is that he's starting to get a little age on him in contrast to the team's rebuilding plans. He could be traded one of these years. As he's aged, his stolen bases have dropped. After a career high 50 in 2007 it dropped to 40 and then 30 last year. I'd expect to see him settle in somewhere around the 20's. The good news is that as he's lost some speed, he's gained some pop. He hit 16 home runs last year which was the most since his career high in 2005 of 18. He should again continue to give strong production from a position usually weak with the bat.
Izturis at short is barely worth mentioning. He'll give you little offensively. He's not quite as bad as having your pitcher hit, but not far from it.
Tejada plays third and is about to turn 36. It puzzles me greatly that they would bring him back at this age while they are trying to build a young team. I suppose he's just a rental, but the O's don't need a trip down memory land. He's hit a mere 27 home runs in 1267 at bats over the past two years and he's not going to swipe many bases. He may be around .300, but I don't see him as a big time impact player. It seems to stunt the team's growth.
Pitching staff:
Millwood will anchor the staff, but at 35 is he going to be around to see the team win again? Jeremy Gutherie had an ERA over 5 last year after two solid seasons. I don't know that he'll return as low as the 3's and be the ace of the staff for years to come, but I think he'll be much better than 5.04. So, they could be solid at 1 and 2 if Gutherie returns to form. Next up is the youth movement. I like where they are going, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot this year. There are high expectations from the 4th overall pick of a couple of years ago, Brian Matusz. It wasn't a bad start to his career last year in the 8 games he started. The question is how good can he be and how soon. If he lives up to expectations early, it could change the look of the staff. At the end it's Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez, both coming off rookie seasons. Bergesen's was much better than Hernandez's, but considering their youth it is hard to expect these guys to give you a ton of quality starts. Overall, if Gutherie comes back to form, the pitching staff has some promise. How good will it be this year? I'd still expect the starting pitchers to be below average and facing the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox won't help. Still they have a good veteran to teach some good young arms, so something good could develop over the next few years.
Mike Gonzalez is the closer, at least for now. He had opportunities to be the man in Atlanta and couldn't get it done whether due to injury or performance. He is a talented pitcher but whether he could put it all together and stay healthy remains to be seen. Supporting Gonzalez are some guys that might not provide much support. Johnson and Meredith are okay. After that, it's really a struggle. If the young starting pitchers can't go deep into games, it could take a toll on the bullpen and the team.
Overall:
The Orioles have some good young talent in the outfield and at the starting pitching positions. Unfortunately they lack a big time, big impact hitter. They'll score some runs, but not enough. The lineup will be below average. The starting pitching staff could surprise some people this year, but being so young it's hard to count on them being solid and consistent. The starting pitching could be average this year and above average in the coming years if the young arms develop. The bullpen looks to be a weakness in terms of depth and not having a proven closer. For a team that has virtually no shot at making the playoffs considering the division they are in, I'm disappointed in the Atkins and Tejada moves. Again, they are probably just rentals, but the infield doesn't have a guy in his 20's on it. That doesn't sound like a young, rebuilding team to me. I wouldn't expect much production from either one. Atkins could prove me wrong and hang around for a while. We'll see. The O's need to keep brining in young talent because this is still not their year.
Prediction: 69-93 slightly better than last year. Last in the brutal AL East.
Area of strength and promise: Outfield/Catcher
It remains to be seen if Adam Jones will live up to his potential. The good news is that he is still young at 24. Does he have the resolve and determination to take his game to the next level? I'm not sure I see him being a star in this league, but he can be above average and serviceable. I'm surprised he has only 10 stolen bases each of the past two seasons.
Markakis is the most credentialed player roaming the outfield and is also young at 26. While he is a solid .300 type guy, he is not a devastating hitter. He had just 18 home runs in 642 at bats last year, one fewer than Adam Jones had in only 473 at bats. He handles the bat well and is a guy that Oriole fans probably want around for some time to come, but unless he develops some more power, he is not going to be a feared hitter.
Left field is going to be manned by Felix Pie to start, but he is just a holding place for Noland Reimold. Pie will tease you with flashes of brilliance, but he is not consistent enough to be an everyday above average starter in MLB. Reimold had a very nice rookie season. He hit 15 home runs in just 358 at bats and stole 8 bases. He too is 26 and we will have to wait and see if he can keep that pace for an entire season and hit around 25 home runs while still keeping his average around .280.
Luke Scott is a backup outfielder and will DH as well. This guy is your prototypical AL power hitter that does little else for you. He hit 25 home runs last year in 449 at bats, but struck out 104 times and is a .250 hitter. He'll give you the bell ringer every now and then, but he's not a guy you can count on to get on base.
Matt Wieters, 23, gets a tremendous amount of hype for a catcher. In his rookie season he hit .288 with 9 homers in 354 at bats. I don't see why he can't build on that and be around a .300 hitter with 20 home run type power. That's a tremendous advantage to get that kind of production out of your catcher.
Areas of Concern: Everywhere Else
Garrett Atkins is an interesting pickup to play first base. At 30, he is borderline to fit into the O's youth movement. Perhaps he is just mid-season trade bait. He's played his entire career at hitter friendly Coors Field, so you would expect some big power numbers. Last year his numbers were awful. He hit .226 with 9 home runs in 354 at bats. His numbers had been trailing off since his 2006 breakout season, but last year was a big drop. Perhaps a change of scenery will help, but he's been bad again this spring. If the O's are hoping to get 20+ home runs and a .300 BA out this guy, I think they'll be very disappointed. I don't see Atkins being the answer at first.
At second we have the face of the Orioles at this point, Brian Roberts. Roberts is solid, the problem is that he's starting to get a little age on him in contrast to the team's rebuilding plans. He could be traded one of these years. As he's aged, his stolen bases have dropped. After a career high 50 in 2007 it dropped to 40 and then 30 last year. I'd expect to see him settle in somewhere around the 20's. The good news is that as he's lost some speed, he's gained some pop. He hit 16 home runs last year which was the most since his career high in 2005 of 18. He should again continue to give strong production from a position usually weak with the bat.
Izturis at short is barely worth mentioning. He'll give you little offensively. He's not quite as bad as having your pitcher hit, but not far from it.
Tejada plays third and is about to turn 36. It puzzles me greatly that they would bring him back at this age while they are trying to build a young team. I suppose he's just a rental, but the O's don't need a trip down memory land. He's hit a mere 27 home runs in 1267 at bats over the past two years and he's not going to swipe many bases. He may be around .300, but I don't see him as a big time impact player. It seems to stunt the team's growth.
Pitching staff:
Millwood will anchor the staff, but at 35 is he going to be around to see the team win again? Jeremy Gutherie had an ERA over 5 last year after two solid seasons. I don't know that he'll return as low as the 3's and be the ace of the staff for years to come, but I think he'll be much better than 5.04. So, they could be solid at 1 and 2 if Gutherie returns to form. Next up is the youth movement. I like where they are going, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot this year. There are high expectations from the 4th overall pick of a couple of years ago, Brian Matusz. It wasn't a bad start to his career last year in the 8 games he started. The question is how good can he be and how soon. If he lives up to expectations early, it could change the look of the staff. At the end it's Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez, both coming off rookie seasons. Bergesen's was much better than Hernandez's, but considering their youth it is hard to expect these guys to give you a ton of quality starts. Overall, if Gutherie comes back to form, the pitching staff has some promise. How good will it be this year? I'd still expect the starting pitchers to be below average and facing the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox won't help. Still they have a good veteran to teach some good young arms, so something good could develop over the next few years.
Mike Gonzalez is the closer, at least for now. He had opportunities to be the man in Atlanta and couldn't get it done whether due to injury or performance. He is a talented pitcher but whether he could put it all together and stay healthy remains to be seen. Supporting Gonzalez are some guys that might not provide much support. Johnson and Meredith are okay. After that, it's really a struggle. If the young starting pitchers can't go deep into games, it could take a toll on the bullpen and the team.
Overall:
The Orioles have some good young talent in the outfield and at the starting pitching positions. Unfortunately they lack a big time, big impact hitter. They'll score some runs, but not enough. The lineup will be below average. The starting pitching staff could surprise some people this year, but being so young it's hard to count on them being solid and consistent. The starting pitching could be average this year and above average in the coming years if the young arms develop. The bullpen looks to be a weakness in terms of depth and not having a proven closer. For a team that has virtually no shot at making the playoffs considering the division they are in, I'm disappointed in the Atkins and Tejada moves. Again, they are probably just rentals, but the infield doesn't have a guy in his 20's on it. That doesn't sound like a young, rebuilding team to me. I wouldn't expect much production from either one. Atkins could prove me wrong and hang around for a while. We'll see. The O's need to keep brining in young talent because this is still not their year.
Prediction: 69-93 slightly better than last year. Last in the brutal AL East.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Final 4 preview
I can't go into full predictive analysis for the Final 4. It makes me nauseated to just think about West Virginia playing Duke in the Final 4. I'm trying to remain calm. This is the type of thing I would dream of when I was shooting baskets out in my driveway as a youngster. Good vs Evil in the Final 4. The difference is that I made sure the Mountaineers always won in the pretend games, but here they may not. As much as I would be disappointed if the Mountaineers lost to Duke and I watched the Blue Devils go on to win another championship, I cannot judge the success of the Mountaineers' season based on Duke's success. The Mountaineers have had the best basketball season of my life by a good margin, so there should be no room for bitterness no matter what the result. It's all gravy from here on out. Like Ryan, you can buy your Mountaineer Final 4 t-shirt and that can never be taken away from you.
On to the brief analysis. If you've read my blog, it should come as no surprise that I like Butler over Michigan St. and rather easily. The Bulldogs are just better to me. I'll call the Mountaineers versus Blue Devils a toss up. I'm too close to this thing to analyze effectively, but it feels like it will come down to the final seconds to me. Either way, you'd have to give the edge in the finals to the winner of that game.
Here are my odds of winning it all (Duke is slight favorite because I'd trust them a little more to handle Butler or Mich St. in the Finals):
Duke 33%
WV 31%
Butler 24%
Mich St. 12%
On to the brief analysis. If you've read my blog, it should come as no surprise that I like Butler over Michigan St. and rather easily. The Bulldogs are just better to me. I'll call the Mountaineers versus Blue Devils a toss up. I'm too close to this thing to analyze effectively, but it feels like it will come down to the final seconds to me. Either way, you'd have to give the edge in the finals to the winner of that game.
Here are my odds of winning it all (Duke is slight favorite because I'd trust them a little more to handle Butler or Mich St. in the Finals):
Duke 33%
WV 31%
Butler 24%
Mich St. 12%
Monday, March 29, 2010
Final 4 Fortune
For the vast majority of teams to make it to the Final 4 it takes luck and skill. This year it was required for all four teams. Here's a look at how they got here.
Michigan St. - the "luckiest" team in the tournament. Let's start with the fact that they have won 4 games by a combined 13 points. Only one game, Northern Iowa, did they win by more than one possession. Let's also consider their road to the Final 4. After a narrow victory in the first round, they faced what would be their toughest opponent. After a tremendous start by Michigan St., the Maryland Terrapins came storming back and looked like they had the game won until a backup hit a buzzer beating three to win it. Next they avoided Kansas, who almost assuredly would have thumped them, and played Northern Iowa instead. UNI used up all of their magical pixie dust against Kansas and the Spartans rolled. Next our fortunate Final 4 team avoided both Georgetown and Ohio St. to instead play Tennessee. Again the Spartans pulled it out the end against an opponent who was not all that strong. So, where's the skill? Well, I have to give credit to Michigan St. for hanging in there after losing their best player against Maryland. They handled Northern Iowa and gave themselves a chance against Tennessee and here they are. I think the odds are against them in the Final 4 and think they are the weakest team remaining, but the way this crazy tournament has gone that may be just where they need to be.
Butler - the team that has earned their spot more than any other team. The Bulldogs crushed UTEP in the first round, a team many experts picked to win that game. After beating the Racers in their "ugly" game of the tournament by just two, Butler had to play the 1 and 2 seeds to make it to the Final 4. They played well throughout and did not look inferior in any way. The road was tough, but so were the Bulldogs who I have been praising and calling my dark horse from the start. They even outrebounded was supposed to be a bigger more athletic Kansas St. team by 9. Hayward, Howard, and Mack are solid and I have been extremely impressed with Hayward in particular. He gives me a little Mike Gansey feel, except probably a little better and more rounded. So where's the luck? They did avoid Vanderbilt in the second round, which may have saved them considering how they played against Murray St. Then they played Syracuse without their big man, Onuaku. Finally, Xavier helped Butler out a little by taking Kansas St. to double overtime. I have trouble imagining these twenty year old beastly athletes being tired with a rest day in between, but the Wildcats did look a little sluggish. Perhaps the Bulldogs best fortune of the tournament comes next. They should have every opportunity to beat the Spartans if they play well. Should they get to the National Championship game, anything can happen.
West Virginia - the team that turns ugly into beautiful results. The Mountaineers have been a slow start team all year and they were again as they got down 10-0 to Morgan St. in the first round. They went on to hammer their opponents in that game. In the second round it was a solid performance as they slowed the fast paced Missouri Tigers down. Some good fortune came to the Mountaineers in the third round. First they avoided New Mexico. Secondly, Washington played completely awful. The Mountaineers turned it over 23 times and still won easily, which speak to the mess of a game that it was. They shot only 40% from the field and 27% from 3. With those turnovers and that shooting percentage a team really shouldn't win, particularly not by 13. It had to be different in the next round as West Virginia played Kentucky, the best team remaining in the tournament, didn't it? Well, yes and no. The Mountaineers did only turn it over 12 times, but the strength of the team, rebounding, was taking away. In the Washington game, WV outrebounded the Huskies by 16. Against Kentucky they were outrebounded by 11. That usually spells disaster for the Mountaineers. However, Kentucky couldn't shoot from outside and the Mountaineers, much to everyone’s surprise, were on fire from three in the first half. The Mountaineers were more methodical in the second half and earned some easy buckets, but they still finished at 44% from 3 versus Kentucky's 12%. That was the difference. Does West Virginia force teams to look ugly or do they just get lucky and catch teams on a bad day? Maybe a little of both. How long can it continue? It's going to be hard to outrebound Duke, so they will again have to win in some other way.
Duke - the team that was the biggest winner before the first tip. There was no question that Duke had the easiest draw when the brackets came out. Louisville could have been dangerous in the second round, but they were asleep in the first 10 minutes against Cal and could never recover. Cal offered little resistance. Purdue too was an easy match without Hummel. Duke was probably fortunate that somebody else, anybody else, didn't get through that section. Then, the only game that any other #1 seed would have had even a remote chance of losing had they had Duke's path was Baylor. As good as Baylor was considering their history, it still wasn't a top level team. However, Duke's best player, Singler had a terrible game. Baylor wins the game if they could have rebounded, which they could not. Part of that is a credit to Duke and part was because Baylor's big man fouled out and played little in the second half. I'll give Duke credit for handling each team without any of their games being all that close, but they should write a thank you letter to the selection committee. As they go forward they are the only #1 seed remaining and could easily wind up winning the tournament. However, should they have to go through West Virginia and Butler they will have to beat two teams better than any they have faced this tournament and each of those two teams has already beaten somebody better than Duke.
Michigan St. - the "luckiest" team in the tournament. Let's start with the fact that they have won 4 games by a combined 13 points. Only one game, Northern Iowa, did they win by more than one possession. Let's also consider their road to the Final 4. After a narrow victory in the first round, they faced what would be their toughest opponent. After a tremendous start by Michigan St., the Maryland Terrapins came storming back and looked like they had the game won until a backup hit a buzzer beating three to win it. Next they avoided Kansas, who almost assuredly would have thumped them, and played Northern Iowa instead. UNI used up all of their magical pixie dust against Kansas and the Spartans rolled. Next our fortunate Final 4 team avoided both Georgetown and Ohio St. to instead play Tennessee. Again the Spartans pulled it out the end against an opponent who was not all that strong. So, where's the skill? Well, I have to give credit to Michigan St. for hanging in there after losing their best player against Maryland. They handled Northern Iowa and gave themselves a chance against Tennessee and here they are. I think the odds are against them in the Final 4 and think they are the weakest team remaining, but the way this crazy tournament has gone that may be just where they need to be.
Butler - the team that has earned their spot more than any other team. The Bulldogs crushed UTEP in the first round, a team many experts picked to win that game. After beating the Racers in their "ugly" game of the tournament by just two, Butler had to play the 1 and 2 seeds to make it to the Final 4. They played well throughout and did not look inferior in any way. The road was tough, but so were the Bulldogs who I have been praising and calling my dark horse from the start. They even outrebounded was supposed to be a bigger more athletic Kansas St. team by 9. Hayward, Howard, and Mack are solid and I have been extremely impressed with Hayward in particular. He gives me a little Mike Gansey feel, except probably a little better and more rounded. So where's the luck? They did avoid Vanderbilt in the second round, which may have saved them considering how they played against Murray St. Then they played Syracuse without their big man, Onuaku. Finally, Xavier helped Butler out a little by taking Kansas St. to double overtime. I have trouble imagining these twenty year old beastly athletes being tired with a rest day in between, but the Wildcats did look a little sluggish. Perhaps the Bulldogs best fortune of the tournament comes next. They should have every opportunity to beat the Spartans if they play well. Should they get to the National Championship game, anything can happen.
West Virginia - the team that turns ugly into beautiful results. The Mountaineers have been a slow start team all year and they were again as they got down 10-0 to Morgan St. in the first round. They went on to hammer their opponents in that game. In the second round it was a solid performance as they slowed the fast paced Missouri Tigers down. Some good fortune came to the Mountaineers in the third round. First they avoided New Mexico. Secondly, Washington played completely awful. The Mountaineers turned it over 23 times and still won easily, which speak to the mess of a game that it was. They shot only 40% from the field and 27% from 3. With those turnovers and that shooting percentage a team really shouldn't win, particularly not by 13. It had to be different in the next round as West Virginia played Kentucky, the best team remaining in the tournament, didn't it? Well, yes and no. The Mountaineers did only turn it over 12 times, but the strength of the team, rebounding, was taking away. In the Washington game, WV outrebounded the Huskies by 16. Against Kentucky they were outrebounded by 11. That usually spells disaster for the Mountaineers. However, Kentucky couldn't shoot from outside and the Mountaineers, much to everyone’s surprise, were on fire from three in the first half. The Mountaineers were more methodical in the second half and earned some easy buckets, but they still finished at 44% from 3 versus Kentucky's 12%. That was the difference. Does West Virginia force teams to look ugly or do they just get lucky and catch teams on a bad day? Maybe a little of both. How long can it continue? It's going to be hard to outrebound Duke, so they will again have to win in some other way.
Duke - the team that was the biggest winner before the first tip. There was no question that Duke had the easiest draw when the brackets came out. Louisville could have been dangerous in the second round, but they were asleep in the first 10 minutes against Cal and could never recover. Cal offered little resistance. Purdue too was an easy match without Hummel. Duke was probably fortunate that somebody else, anybody else, didn't get through that section. Then, the only game that any other #1 seed would have had even a remote chance of losing had they had Duke's path was Baylor. As good as Baylor was considering their history, it still wasn't a top level team. However, Duke's best player, Singler had a terrible game. Baylor wins the game if they could have rebounded, which they could not. Part of that is a credit to Duke and part was because Baylor's big man fouled out and played little in the second half. I'll give Duke credit for handling each team without any of their games being all that close, but they should write a thank you letter to the selection committee. As they go forward they are the only #1 seed remaining and could easily wind up winning the tournament. However, should they have to go through West Virginia and Butler they will have to beat two teams better than any they have faced this tournament and each of those two teams has already beaten somebody better than Duke.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Sweet 16 - Day 2 Preview
The South bracket seems a fairly easy one to call, at least tonight's games. I've hammered on Purdue all tournament long, why stop now? I'll give the credit for making it to the Sweet 16 without Hummel in two close victories, but Duke will face another weak opponent on their trip to the Final 4. Duke should win. I hope the Boilermakers prove me wrong, but I doubt it. In the other game, I think St. Mary's run is up. I like the Gaels, but they've played a couple of teams weak inside and I think Baylor will handle them a little better. The Bears and Blue Devils should meet. Baylor is a pretty solid team, but Final 4 material? I don't know. I said at the beginning that the Blue Devils had an easy path through their bracket and it still looks that way to me.
Duke 53%
Baylor 34%
Purdue 8%
St. Mary's 5%
In the Midwest you would have had to be discouraged when the brackets came out if you were a Buckeye fan. You had to figure they would need to beat Georgetown and Kansas to get to the Final 4, which would seem unlikely even to an optimist. As it turns out the Buckeyes just need to beat Tennessee and either Michigan St. (without their best player) or Northern Iowa. How sweet is that? The Buckeyes are solid and are the favorite to make it through, but let's not forget they needed a buzzer beating heave against lowly Michigan in the Big 10 tournament, so let's not advance them so fast. I am not a fan of Rocky Top, so naturally I tend to not give them the credit they deserve. However I would take the winner of the Tennessee vs. Ohio St. game over either of the other two teams. I like the Buckeyes to beat Northern Iowa, who will keep the Cinderella shoes on for one more game. Here are my odds of going to the Final 4.
Ohio St. 39%
Tennessee 24%
Northern Iowa 20%
Michigan St. 17%
Duke 53%
Baylor 34%
Purdue 8%
St. Mary's 5%
In the Midwest you would have had to be discouraged when the brackets came out if you were a Buckeye fan. You had to figure they would need to beat Georgetown and Kansas to get to the Final 4, which would seem unlikely even to an optimist. As it turns out the Buckeyes just need to beat Tennessee and either Michigan St. (without their best player) or Northern Iowa. How sweet is that? The Buckeyes are solid and are the favorite to make it through, but let's not forget they needed a buzzer beating heave against lowly Michigan in the Big 10 tournament, so let's not advance them so fast. I am not a fan of Rocky Top, so naturally I tend to not give them the credit they deserve. However I would take the winner of the Tennessee vs. Ohio St. game over either of the other two teams. I like the Buckeyes to beat Northern Iowa, who will keep the Cinderella shoes on for one more game. Here are my odds of going to the Final 4.
Ohio St. 39%
Tennessee 24%
Northern Iowa 20%
Michigan St. 17%
Mountaineers/Bulldogs win
The West Virginia versus Washington game had to be one of the ugliest I have seen at the sweet 16 level. West Virginia had 23 turnovers and Washington 21. I don't know that Truck Bryant would have helped, but I don't know that he could have hurt. Ebanks had a whopping 8 turnovers. I've never been impressed with his ball handling. It would be effective but look ugly. Last night it was just ugly. He's a good passer if you get him within 25 feet of the bucket, but his dribbling could use some work. The Mountaineers won this game where they've won many before - on the glass. They outrebounded the Huskies 41-25 and turned that margin into 9 more shot attempts than Washington posted. The shooting percentages were nearly identical, so the extra attempts were important. I don't think the Mountaineers can do the same thing against Kentucky. They will not outrebound them by 16. I give the Mountaineers a shot, but they are going to have to shoot well. Kentucky is good. No matter the result on Saturday and no matter how ugly it's looked at times, a Mountaineer fan can't complain about the success they've had this year. They have consistently been ranked in the top 10, they won the Big East tournament, and they made it to an Elite 8. I heard Huggins say last night how much they have improved. He said that he told them throughout the year that they were the worst defensive team he had in ten or twelve years, but they have improved their defense greatly in the past month. I can't argue with any of that, Huggy Bear. They were bad and lately they've been much better on defense. Kentucky, however, will be a stiff test.
I say plenty of things that don't turn out to look to smart, so I would like to take this time to point you to previous posts concerning the Butler Bulldogs. I've pegged them as a dark horse from the beginning and wasn't surprised by their win last night. I give them a good shot against Kansas St. and even in the Final Four (should they make it) against Ohio St. or any of the other teams in that bracket remaining. I don't think they could pull off winning the whole thing should they face Kentucky, WV, or Duke, but they just might get there.
I say plenty of things that don't turn out to look to smart, so I would like to take this time to point you to previous posts concerning the Butler Bulldogs. I've pegged them as a dark horse from the beginning and wasn't surprised by their win last night. I give them a good shot against Kansas St. and even in the Final Four (should they make it) against Ohio St. or any of the other teams in that bracket remaining. I don't think they could pull off winning the whole thing should they face Kentucky, WV, or Duke, but they just might get there.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Sweet 16 preview - Day 1
The West is the one bracket where I picked all Sweet 16 teams correctly, so clearly I didn't see any surprises emerging from that region. Looking into the next round, I'd have to stick with the favorites, Syracuse and Kansas St. However, I really like Butler (as I've noted before) and Onuaku continues to be out, so I give the Bulldogs a decent shot. In the other game, I think Kansas St. is a good bit better than Xavier, but I'm still not sure how much I trust the Wildcats. In a head to head matchup between Kansas St. and Syracuse I'd have to call it a toss up. Since this bracket produced 4 solid, talented teams, it may be the most wide open bracket at this point. It's hard to pick a favorite and hard to dismiss any of the four teams. If I had to pick a team, I'm going to go with my Big East bias and give Syracuse a very slight edge. Here are my odds of a Final 4 trip:
Syracuse 34%
Kansas St. 33%
Butler 17%
Xavier 16%
The East still has its top 2 seeds, but an 11 and a 12 join them. Cornell isn't a huge shock to me. If they are hitting their threes they can be a very dangerous team. They didn't play particularly well down the stretch in the regular season, so I was surprised at how easily they won each of their first two tournament games. These were not down to the wire buzzer beater type games. The Big Red had it sown up early and did so in dominating fashion. They have their 7 footer inside to go with the Ivy League 3's and I think he differentiates this team from most pesky Ivy League teams. I haven't seen Washington play and gave the Pac 10 no respect coming into the tournament. However, the Left Coast has performed well and Washington keeps on rolling. After pulling out a close one against Marquette, the Huskies did surprise me by blowing out the Lobos. In the games today, Cornell has to be considered a fairly big underdog. Kentucky has looked very impressive and my have too much talent for the Big Red. West Virginia is actually the smallest favorite on the day. I think this is because most people, including me, don't know what to expect from Washington. Are they really that good? We will also see how the injury to Bryant affects the Mountaineers. Mazzulla is the more confident and better player at this point, so some would argue that this is a good thing. I wouldn't go that far. Mazzulla often gets into foul trouble in 20 minutes of playing time and he is now going to need to play 30+. Also, Washington's best player is their point guard, Isaiah Tomas. I think the Mountaineers will need Mazzulla on the floor most of the game, so hopefully he stays out of foul trouble. I'll go chalk in this bracket. If the Mountaineers and Wildcats do meet, I think Kentucky would have the edge, but don't count the Mountaineers out. They will fight their opponent all the way.
Kentucky 53%
WV 27%
Washington 13%
Cornell 7%
Syracuse 34%
Kansas St. 33%
Butler 17%
Xavier 16%
The East still has its top 2 seeds, but an 11 and a 12 join them. Cornell isn't a huge shock to me. If they are hitting their threes they can be a very dangerous team. They didn't play particularly well down the stretch in the regular season, so I was surprised at how easily they won each of their first two tournament games. These were not down to the wire buzzer beater type games. The Big Red had it sown up early and did so in dominating fashion. They have their 7 footer inside to go with the Ivy League 3's and I think he differentiates this team from most pesky Ivy League teams. I haven't seen Washington play and gave the Pac 10 no respect coming into the tournament. However, the Left Coast has performed well and Washington keeps on rolling. After pulling out a close one against Marquette, the Huskies did surprise me by blowing out the Lobos. In the games today, Cornell has to be considered a fairly big underdog. Kentucky has looked very impressive and my have too much talent for the Big Red. West Virginia is actually the smallest favorite on the day. I think this is because most people, including me, don't know what to expect from Washington. Are they really that good? We will also see how the injury to Bryant affects the Mountaineers. Mazzulla is the more confident and better player at this point, so some would argue that this is a good thing. I wouldn't go that far. Mazzulla often gets into foul trouble in 20 minutes of playing time and he is now going to need to play 30+. Also, Washington's best player is their point guard, Isaiah Tomas. I think the Mountaineers will need Mazzulla on the floor most of the game, so hopefully he stays out of foul trouble. I'll go chalk in this bracket. If the Mountaineers and Wildcats do meet, I think Kentucky would have the edge, but don't count the Mountaineers out. They will fight their opponent all the way.
Kentucky 53%
WV 27%
Washington 13%
Cornell 7%
Friday, March 19, 2010
Richmond/Big East stink it up
First let's deal with the Spiders. It was a good season. Third place in the regular season in the A-10, a trip to the conference championship, and a 7 seed in the NCAA tournament is a very nice year. So, let's give them the credit they deserve. As for yesterday, it was a poor effort. St. Mary's wanted it more and was much more physical and the Spiders were just beat up. Richmond's problem all year has been on the glass, but yesterday they took their weakness to new lows. At one point, the rebounding edge was 36-11. I don't think I've ever seen anything like that with two teams on the same level playing each other. The ball bounces into your hands 11 times. Anderson and Gonzalvez did their thing, but there was absolutely no support from the interior players. Gonzalvez led the team with 5 rebounds. That's sad that your guard is the only one strong enough to get a board. That's what they will miss most about him next year, his toughness. Justin Harper and Darrius Garrett have some presence inside, but they played a combined 34 minutes. Both should have been on the floor practically the whole game to help on the boards. Geriot just looks like he doesn't belong. He's slow, he can't jump and he's just not a factor. I felt bad for Anderson. As good as he is, he's under 6 feet tall and he can't control the boards. The Spiders didn't give him a chance yesterday. I would normally say St. Mary's has a great shot against Villanova, but top teams that have a first round scare generally bounce back well in the second round. Still, I think the difference between St. Mary's and Villanova is small, so it could be a good game.
Next, let's discuss the Big East's dismal performance. I am a huge Big East proponent and generally give them more credit than they deserve, but that was awful. It's not that they went 1-3, it's that they went 1-3 and were the favorite in each game, heavily in two of them, and looked bad doing it. Villanova struggled down the stretch, but Robert Morris? Seriously? Until overtime the only way Villanova could score was from the foul line. Notre Dame’s loss isn't surprising. I thought ODU had a great chance. ND plays low scoring close games that anybody can win. They ended up on the short end. It's that simple. Marquette was a bit disappointing because they really should have won that game, but they just couldn't get out of their own way down the stretch. Georgetown was a huge shock. They played fine offensively, but they lacked defensive intensity. I will say to the Hoyas defense that it was as well as Ohio could possibly play. Anything they threw up seemed to go in, whether it was a quality shot or not. Sometimes it's just your day. It was the Bobcats day. What does this mean for WV, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh? It's not good. I would be worried anyway, but yesterday's results have me even more concerned that today's game against Morgan St. might not be a blow out for the Mountaineers.
If I had to pick a team to watch for after yesterday's games it would be Butler. I liked them a lot coming into this tournament and thought they had a great chance to get to the Sweet 16. My concern was that everybody was hyping UTEP. The Bulldogs easily took care of them in a day of close games. I thought they were a good bit better than Vanderbilt if they met the Commodores in the second round, but Murray St. took them out first. Now it seems like an easy road to the Sweet 16 for the Bulldogs and if Syracuse is not healthy and ready to go, then look out. The Bulldogs could pull off the upset there and again in the next round to charge right into the Final 4.
Let’s hope today’s games go a little bit better than yesterday’s.
Next, let's discuss the Big East's dismal performance. I am a huge Big East proponent and generally give them more credit than they deserve, but that was awful. It's not that they went 1-3, it's that they went 1-3 and were the favorite in each game, heavily in two of them, and looked bad doing it. Villanova struggled down the stretch, but Robert Morris? Seriously? Until overtime the only way Villanova could score was from the foul line. Notre Dame’s loss isn't surprising. I thought ODU had a great chance. ND plays low scoring close games that anybody can win. They ended up on the short end. It's that simple. Marquette was a bit disappointing because they really should have won that game, but they just couldn't get out of their own way down the stretch. Georgetown was a huge shock. They played fine offensively, but they lacked defensive intensity. I will say to the Hoyas defense that it was as well as Ohio could possibly play. Anything they threw up seemed to go in, whether it was a quality shot or not. Sometimes it's just your day. It was the Bobcats day. What does this mean for WV, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh? It's not good. I would be worried anyway, but yesterday's results have me even more concerned that today's game against Morgan St. might not be a blow out for the Mountaineers.
If I had to pick a team to watch for after yesterday's games it would be Butler. I liked them a lot coming into this tournament and thought they had a great chance to get to the Sweet 16. My concern was that everybody was hyping UTEP. The Bulldogs easily took care of them in a day of close games. I thought they were a good bit better than Vanderbilt if they met the Commodores in the second round, but Murray St. took them out first. Now it seems like an easy road to the Sweet 16 for the Bulldogs and if Syracuse is not healthy and ready to go, then look out. The Bulldogs could pull off the upset there and again in the next round to charge right into the Final 4.
Let’s hope today’s games go a little bit better than yesterday’s.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
East and South Preview
East:
The Wildcats from Kentucky are the tournament's #2 overall. They certainly have the talent as the NBA will one day show. Are they hungry enough? Are they disciplined enough? Are they consistent enough? We'll find out. They have a potentially dangerous second round matchup with Texas who is also very talented but lost their way down the stretch. If they get to the Sweet 16 it is Wisconsin that could be dangerous. The Badgers are disciplined and their defense could frustrate the Wildcats. The Wildcats are still a strong favorite to emerge in the Elite 8, but the path isn't exactly a clear one. On the bottom half it is our beloved Mountaineers. The Mountaineers seem to love playing in nail biters, so any game could be lethal. Still I don't see Morgan St, Clemson, or Missouri as incredibly dangerous teams. If they do navigate those waters their opponent in the Sweet 16 will be interesting. Is New Mexico really that good? Assuming they get past Montana, they will face either Marquette of Washington. The Golden Eagles are another team who likes to play it close and if they could beat Washington, the game against the Lobos might be a dandy. Either way, the Mountaineers have to be the favorite to emerge to face the Wildcats. West Virginia wins by outmuscling people on the boards, Kentucky wins with talent. I'd give the edge to the talent. Here are this bracket's Final 4 odds:
Kentucky 42%
West Virginia 24%
New Mexico 12%
Wisconsin 10%
Marquette 4%
Temple 3%
Field 5%
South:
This is the puzzling bracket. If you were looking for me to give the odds to somebody other than a 1 seed it would have been in Duke's region. The Blue Devils haven't convinced me. Singler is a very tough matchup. He can score from anywhere in anyway. After that though, I'm not too impressed. If a team can find a way to contain him, Duke will once again be in NCAA tournament trouble. The problem is trying to find a really good team in this region. Louisville is dangerous in the second round and that potential matchup would have concerned if I were a Dukie. However, the Blue Devils caught a big break if they should make it to the Sweet 16. The best seed from the group that would contain their opponent is Purdue. Without Hummel however, I doubt the Boilermakers could win an NIT game. The only team to have any concern about from that grouping is Texas A&M. I admittedly don't know a whole lot about them, but if you want to pick a 12 or 13 to make it to the Sweet 16, which always seems to happen, I'd go with Utah St. or Siena, neither of which would give Duke any trouble. On the other half Villanova represents the slumping 2 seed that really should have been a 3 or maybe even a 4. I'd be a little surprised if they make it to the Elite 8. I'd give a slight edge to Baylor who is playing better. The problem is what do the Bears know about NCAA tournament success? Could they really make a deep tournament run? It's hard to believe. Perhaps Notre Dame will make a run out the South, or even ODU, Richmond, or St. Mary's. It's wide open. Take your pick. Perhaps it's Duke's year to have a good tournament. It's hard to find somebody else to pick. Here are my odds:
Duke 32%
Baylor 20%
Villanova 18%
Texas A&M 8%
Louisville 8%
Notre Dame 5%
Richmond 3%
Field 6%
The interesting thing to note here is that the top 2 teams in the Midwest and West have over a 70% chance of advancing combined; it's 66% in the East. Here in the wide open South it's a measly 52%. Ninth seeded Louisville even gets 8% love, which is more than any other team seeded below a 4 in any of the other regions. Perhaps I gave the Cardinals too much credit, but it seems like some upsets are brewing in this region and the Cardinals have the coach and experience to pull it off.
The Wildcats from Kentucky are the tournament's #2 overall. They certainly have the talent as the NBA will one day show. Are they hungry enough? Are they disciplined enough? Are they consistent enough? We'll find out. They have a potentially dangerous second round matchup with Texas who is also very talented but lost their way down the stretch. If they get to the Sweet 16 it is Wisconsin that could be dangerous. The Badgers are disciplined and their defense could frustrate the Wildcats. The Wildcats are still a strong favorite to emerge in the Elite 8, but the path isn't exactly a clear one. On the bottom half it is our beloved Mountaineers. The Mountaineers seem to love playing in nail biters, so any game could be lethal. Still I don't see Morgan St, Clemson, or Missouri as incredibly dangerous teams. If they do navigate those waters their opponent in the Sweet 16 will be interesting. Is New Mexico really that good? Assuming they get past Montana, they will face either Marquette of Washington. The Golden Eagles are another team who likes to play it close and if they could beat Washington, the game against the Lobos might be a dandy. Either way, the Mountaineers have to be the favorite to emerge to face the Wildcats. West Virginia wins by outmuscling people on the boards, Kentucky wins with talent. I'd give the edge to the talent. Here are this bracket's Final 4 odds:
Kentucky 42%
West Virginia 24%
New Mexico 12%
Wisconsin 10%
Marquette 4%
Temple 3%
Field 5%
South:
This is the puzzling bracket. If you were looking for me to give the odds to somebody other than a 1 seed it would have been in Duke's region. The Blue Devils haven't convinced me. Singler is a very tough matchup. He can score from anywhere in anyway. After that though, I'm not too impressed. If a team can find a way to contain him, Duke will once again be in NCAA tournament trouble. The problem is trying to find a really good team in this region. Louisville is dangerous in the second round and that potential matchup would have concerned if I were a Dukie. However, the Blue Devils caught a big break if they should make it to the Sweet 16. The best seed from the group that would contain their opponent is Purdue. Without Hummel however, I doubt the Boilermakers could win an NIT game. The only team to have any concern about from that grouping is Texas A&M. I admittedly don't know a whole lot about them, but if you want to pick a 12 or 13 to make it to the Sweet 16, which always seems to happen, I'd go with Utah St. or Siena, neither of which would give Duke any trouble. On the other half Villanova represents the slumping 2 seed that really should have been a 3 or maybe even a 4. I'd be a little surprised if they make it to the Elite 8. I'd give a slight edge to Baylor who is playing better. The problem is what do the Bears know about NCAA tournament success? Could they really make a deep tournament run? It's hard to believe. Perhaps Notre Dame will make a run out the South, or even ODU, Richmond, or St. Mary's. It's wide open. Take your pick. Perhaps it's Duke's year to have a good tournament. It's hard to find somebody else to pick. Here are my odds:
Duke 32%
Baylor 20%
Villanova 18%
Texas A&M 8%
Louisville 8%
Notre Dame 5%
Richmond 3%
Field 6%
The interesting thing to note here is that the top 2 teams in the Midwest and West have over a 70% chance of advancing combined; it's 66% in the East. Here in the wide open South it's a measly 52%. Ninth seeded Louisville even gets 8% love, which is more than any other team seeded below a 4 in any of the other regions. Perhaps I gave the Cardinals too much credit, but it seems like some upsets are brewing in this region and the Cardinals have the coach and experience to pull it off.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Midwest and West preview
Midwest:
It's hard to argue that Kansas is not the best team in the country. They are solid in all aspects of the game. The first two rounds should be a breeze before they likely face Michigan St. or Maryland. While both of those teams are potentially dangerous, Kansas would still be a comfortable favorite. So, Kansas has to be the strong favorite to come out of the top half of the draw. The bottom half is a little more interesting with Georgetown and Ohio St. potentially facing off in a huge Sweet 16 matchup. Georgetown should get by Ohio and the winner of the Tennessee/San Diego St game, a toss up in my opinion, and Ohio St. is just as likely to show up in the sweet 16 after beating UCSB and either Oklahoma St. or Georgia Tech. If the two should meet I'd have to give the edge to Georgetown as they looked to be coming into form down the stretch. Ohio St. may have won the Big 10 championship, but they didn't face any of the top teams and needed a miracle to beat a weak Michigan team. Either way, while both are solid teams that I respect and might pick to come out of the South had they been placed there, Kansas is going to be a tough out. The odds favor the Jayhawks. Here is how the DeHavenator round by round odds turned out for the chances of the following teams to get to the Final 4:
Kansas 50%
Georgetown 22%
Ohio St. 18%
Michigan St. 3%
Maryland 3%
Rest of Field 4%
West:
Syracuse is the lowest 1 seed and has a potential injury concern with their big man, Onuaku. This is a bracket where people like to get creative and tend to not give Syracuse much credit. I still think Syracuse has a good shot to get to the Final 4. Onuaku will take this week off most likely, but could come back for the following week against the more difficult teams. Could the winner of the Florida St./Gonzaga game give the Orange problems? Yes, but I expect Syracuse will emerge into the sweet 16. There they would face Vanderbilt, Butler (another team people seem to be picking against), UTEP, or Murray St. You would still have to give the edge to Syracuse against any of those teams. In the bottom half of the bracket, Kansas St. has been receiving big praises and has been a common choice to make the Final 4. Certainly they are a strong favorite in the 1st round and the 2nd round where they will meet either BYU or Florida. From there it would be either Pitt, a bit overrated in my estimation, Xavier, or Minnesota. All of these seem a bit overmatched against the Wildcats. So the odds would favor a Syracuse/Kansas St. final in the West. Who has the edge there? I still have to give a slight edge to the Orange. The zone can give people fits that haven't seen it and I'll trust that Onuaku will be healthy by that time. By giving the Orange the slight edge there combined with a little easier road to the Elite 8, I would still put Syracuse as the favorite. Here are the odds of the teams to make the Final 4:
Syracuse 43%
Kansas St. 30%
Pittsburgh 9%
Butler 5%
Vanderbilt 5%
Xavier 3%
Rest of Field 5%
If you compare the two brackets, the main thing to notice is that the West has two strong teams while the Midwest has three. Pitt doesn't seem to be much of a threat to me. This is what enables Kansas St. to have such a good chance in comparison to Georgetown or Ohio St. Not only would the Wildcats face Syracuse instead of Kansas in the Elite 8, but the opponent they would have to beat to get there is easier on paper. As many have said, the Midwest is a tough bracket.
It's hard to argue that Kansas is not the best team in the country. They are solid in all aspects of the game. The first two rounds should be a breeze before they likely face Michigan St. or Maryland. While both of those teams are potentially dangerous, Kansas would still be a comfortable favorite. So, Kansas has to be the strong favorite to come out of the top half of the draw. The bottom half is a little more interesting with Georgetown and Ohio St. potentially facing off in a huge Sweet 16 matchup. Georgetown should get by Ohio and the winner of the Tennessee/San Diego St game, a toss up in my opinion, and Ohio St. is just as likely to show up in the sweet 16 after beating UCSB and either Oklahoma St. or Georgia Tech. If the two should meet I'd have to give the edge to Georgetown as they looked to be coming into form down the stretch. Ohio St. may have won the Big 10 championship, but they didn't face any of the top teams and needed a miracle to beat a weak Michigan team. Either way, while both are solid teams that I respect and might pick to come out of the South had they been placed there, Kansas is going to be a tough out. The odds favor the Jayhawks. Here is how the DeHavenator round by round odds turned out for the chances of the following teams to get to the Final 4:
Kansas 50%
Georgetown 22%
Ohio St. 18%
Michigan St. 3%
Maryland 3%
Rest of Field 4%
West:
Syracuse is the lowest 1 seed and has a potential injury concern with their big man, Onuaku. This is a bracket where people like to get creative and tend to not give Syracuse much credit. I still think Syracuse has a good shot to get to the Final 4. Onuaku will take this week off most likely, but could come back for the following week against the more difficult teams. Could the winner of the Florida St./Gonzaga game give the Orange problems? Yes, but I expect Syracuse will emerge into the sweet 16. There they would face Vanderbilt, Butler (another team people seem to be picking against), UTEP, or Murray St. You would still have to give the edge to Syracuse against any of those teams. In the bottom half of the bracket, Kansas St. has been receiving big praises and has been a common choice to make the Final 4. Certainly they are a strong favorite in the 1st round and the 2nd round where they will meet either BYU or Florida. From there it would be either Pitt, a bit overrated in my estimation, Xavier, or Minnesota. All of these seem a bit overmatched against the Wildcats. So the odds would favor a Syracuse/Kansas St. final in the West. Who has the edge there? I still have to give a slight edge to the Orange. The zone can give people fits that haven't seen it and I'll trust that Onuaku will be healthy by that time. By giving the Orange the slight edge there combined with a little easier road to the Elite 8, I would still put Syracuse as the favorite. Here are the odds of the teams to make the Final 4:
Syracuse 43%
Kansas St. 30%
Pittsburgh 9%
Butler 5%
Vanderbilt 5%
Xavier 3%
Rest of Field 5%
If you compare the two brackets, the main thing to notice is that the West has two strong teams while the Midwest has three. Pitt doesn't seem to be much of a threat to me. This is what enables Kansas St. to have such a good chance in comparison to Georgetown or Ohio St. Not only would the Wildcats face Syracuse instead of Kansas in the Elite 8, but the opponent they would have to beat to get there is easier on paper. As many have said, the Midwest is a tough bracket.
Monday, March 15, 2010
NCAA tourney preview
The Mountaineers won their first ever Big East Championship!!!! I didn't see it as I was in the emergency room recovering from anaphylactic shock, but I'm sure it was great. Actually, I did record it and watched the final 4 minutes with my Mountaineer crazed friend Ryan while in a Benadryl induced hazed. He stood and cheered and pumped his fist, while I sat and watched with a glaze over my eyes and drool probably protruding from one side of my mouth. It could have been more enjoyable, but it still is a championship that can never be taken a way. So, in that way, the season has been a success no matter what happens in the NCAA tournament. The Spiders came close to accomplishing the same feat on Sunday. Unless I missed something, it was not on tv, which was a big disappointment. Still, as a 7 seed, UR has been give a chance to do some things in the NCAA's. Let's evaluate the committee's final product.
I can't complain too much about who was selected or where they were seeded. Sure you could argue some spots here and there, but nothing jumped out at me as being ridiculous. Perhaps Florida not only getting in but getting a 10 seed was the most perplexing. I did very much enjoy the committee once again snubbing the Hokies. Seth Greenberg should be on a suicide watch. He was convinced there was no way they would be left out this year. Maybe they shouldn't have been, but sorry Hokies, you're out! Next year trying scheduling somebody in your non-conference schedule and beating them. My issue was how the brackets unfolded for the top 4 seeds. The overall #1 was Kansas, followed by Kentucky, then Duke, then Syracuse. Duke getting the overall #3 is very questionable considering how down the ACC was this year. Also, how much credit can you give them for winning the ACC tournament when they didn't beat anybody? They beat two teams who were no where near the bubble and then a 10 seed bubble team. That's nothing impressive. I question if they should have even been a #1 seed at all. Still, I can accept a #1 for Duke. Here's what I don't understand, I thought that having the overall #1 would give you the worst #2 seed, and the lowest #1 would play the highest #2. What's the point of differentiating the #1's if the best doesn't get the easiest road? Look at the 2's, the easiest is Villanova by a mile, particularly the way they played down the stretch. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest are WV and Ohio St., who are in the top 2 seeded teams' brackets. WV should have been in Duke's (can't be in Syracuse because both are Big East) and Ohio St. in Syracuse. Next we go to the 3 seeds. The easiest, in my opinion is Baylor. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest would be Georgetown again in the #1 overall seed's bracket. Let's go to the 4 seeds. The easiest by two miles is Purdue after they lost Hummel. Siena, the 13, may be favored in that game. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest in my opinion are Wisconsin and Maryland in the top two seeded teams' bracket. The point is that on paper, Duke has by far the easiest road to the Final 4 while being the weakest #1 and the two strongest #1's (KU and UK) have the hardest roads and I'll even say that the overall #1 has the hardest. The committee did Kansas no favors by putting Mich St., Maryland, Georgetown, and Ohio St. in their bracket. The Duke bracket is so bad that I'm going to go ahead and call it wide open. If you want upsets, look to this bracket. The Spiders could come out of this bracket since it's so weak. The one thing that the committee did to Duke that was not friendly was the possible second round matchup against Louisville. As a #9 seed, I honestly think that is the toughest matchup for Duke in the whole bracket. In fact, in my initial picks, I have Louisville in the Final 4. Am I comfortable with that? Of course not. Louisville isn't all that consistent and just lost Cincinnati, but I don't see a team in that bracket that's Final 4 material. This is probably the year that Duke's drought ends. The committee sure did its part to see that it does.
As for the Mountaineers' draw, I wish they were in Duke's bracket instead of Kentucky's, but if they get that far I won't have much to complain about. Neither Clemson nor Missouri particularly scares me, although the way WV plays everyone close even Morgan St. could have a shot against them. If they get to the sweet 16 it will be either New Mexico or Marquette most likely. I think WV could hang with either of those teams. So, it's not a bad draw for the Mountaineers. The question is when will their luck run out. They won their three Big East tournament games by a combined 7 points. Sooner or later those end of the game bounces are going to against them if they insist on playing it down to the wire every time.
The Spiders drew a tough 1st round opponent in St. Mary's. They are tough inside where the Spiders are not. I'm not sure the Spiders can get past them and into the second round, but if they do they will face a reeling Villanova team that is also guard oriented like the Spiders. I think the Spiders could have a chance in that one. If they did pull off an upset and reach the sweet 16, there wouldn't be any dominating team waiting for them. It could be Baylor, Notre Dame, or ODU. I see no reason the Spiders couldn't hang with any of those teams. Then on to the Elite 8 where it could be Duke, but it could also be any number of other teams. It could be Utah St. My take on the Spider bracket is this - they have a tough 1st round matchup, but there isn't anyone in the whole bracket, with the possible exception of Duke because of the size of Singler and some of their interior players, that the Spiders couldn't hang with. There is the chance for something special here. But first they have to get past St. Mary's.
I can't complain too much about who was selected or where they were seeded. Sure you could argue some spots here and there, but nothing jumped out at me as being ridiculous. Perhaps Florida not only getting in but getting a 10 seed was the most perplexing. I did very much enjoy the committee once again snubbing the Hokies. Seth Greenberg should be on a suicide watch. He was convinced there was no way they would be left out this year. Maybe they shouldn't have been, but sorry Hokies, you're out! Next year trying scheduling somebody in your non-conference schedule and beating them. My issue was how the brackets unfolded for the top 4 seeds. The overall #1 was Kansas, followed by Kentucky, then Duke, then Syracuse. Duke getting the overall #3 is very questionable considering how down the ACC was this year. Also, how much credit can you give them for winning the ACC tournament when they didn't beat anybody? They beat two teams who were no where near the bubble and then a 10 seed bubble team. That's nothing impressive. I question if they should have even been a #1 seed at all. Still, I can accept a #1 for Duke. Here's what I don't understand, I thought that having the overall #1 would give you the worst #2 seed, and the lowest #1 would play the highest #2. What's the point of differentiating the #1's if the best doesn't get the easiest road? Look at the 2's, the easiest is Villanova by a mile, particularly the way they played down the stretch. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest are WV and Ohio St., who are in the top 2 seeded teams' brackets. WV should have been in Duke's (can't be in Syracuse because both are Big East) and Ohio St. in Syracuse. Next we go to the 3 seeds. The easiest, in my opinion is Baylor. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest would be Georgetown again in the #1 overall seed's bracket. Let's go to the 4 seeds. The easiest by two miles is Purdue after they lost Hummel. Siena, the 13, may be favored in that game. Who's bracket? Duke's. The hardest in my opinion are Wisconsin and Maryland in the top two seeded teams' bracket. The point is that on paper, Duke has by far the easiest road to the Final 4 while being the weakest #1 and the two strongest #1's (KU and UK) have the hardest roads and I'll even say that the overall #1 has the hardest. The committee did Kansas no favors by putting Mich St., Maryland, Georgetown, and Ohio St. in their bracket. The Duke bracket is so bad that I'm going to go ahead and call it wide open. If you want upsets, look to this bracket. The Spiders could come out of this bracket since it's so weak. The one thing that the committee did to Duke that was not friendly was the possible second round matchup against Louisville. As a #9 seed, I honestly think that is the toughest matchup for Duke in the whole bracket. In fact, in my initial picks, I have Louisville in the Final 4. Am I comfortable with that? Of course not. Louisville isn't all that consistent and just lost Cincinnati, but I don't see a team in that bracket that's Final 4 material. This is probably the year that Duke's drought ends. The committee sure did its part to see that it does.
As for the Mountaineers' draw, I wish they were in Duke's bracket instead of Kentucky's, but if they get that far I won't have much to complain about. Neither Clemson nor Missouri particularly scares me, although the way WV plays everyone close even Morgan St. could have a shot against them. If they get to the sweet 16 it will be either New Mexico or Marquette most likely. I think WV could hang with either of those teams. So, it's not a bad draw for the Mountaineers. The question is when will their luck run out. They won their three Big East tournament games by a combined 7 points. Sooner or later those end of the game bounces are going to against them if they insist on playing it down to the wire every time.
The Spiders drew a tough 1st round opponent in St. Mary's. They are tough inside where the Spiders are not. I'm not sure the Spiders can get past them and into the second round, but if they do they will face a reeling Villanova team that is also guard oriented like the Spiders. I think the Spiders could have a chance in that one. If they did pull off an upset and reach the sweet 16, there wouldn't be any dominating team waiting for them. It could be Baylor, Notre Dame, or ODU. I see no reason the Spiders couldn't hang with any of those teams. Then on to the Elite 8 where it could be Duke, but it could also be any number of other teams. It could be Utah St. My take on the Spider bracket is this - they have a tough 1st round matchup, but there isn't anyone in the whole bracket, with the possible exception of Duke because of the size of Singler and some of their interior players, that the Spiders couldn't hang with. There is the chance for something special here. But first they have to get past St. Mary's.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Off glass - on to semis
The Mountaineers move on while all the other top 4 seeds lost in the Big East tournament. Of course the Mountainners were far from spectacular. After a sizzling 18-4 start, the Bearcats beat them up. Only 54 points against Cincinnati along with no answer for Lance Stephenson when he decided to drive showed the weaknesses of this team. Against Cincinnati Butler and Jones actually had pretty decent games, which generally means success for the Mountaineers, but Ebanks and Bryant were awful, combining to go 4-23. I've heard many people say it and it continues to be true, for a team so highly ranked, the Mountaineers are hard to watch. It's just ugly.
On a separate note, as Johnnie West hit the 3 at then end of regulation and was on the court for the end of the game, it got me wondering why he doesn't play more if Huggins thinks he is one of the top 5 offensive players, even coming off the bench ice cold. Compare him to Casey Mitchell who gets some significant minutes in certain games. Mitchell is in the game to shoot, but apparently they have more confidence in West ability to shoot (West 42% from 3, Mitchell 31%). It is obvious Huggins doesn't have much confidence in West's defensive performance, but have you seen Mitchell play defense? Ugh. Honestly, I'd take West's toughness and effort over Mitchell's avoid contact playing style on the defensive end. I also think West is more confident with the ball and thus a better ball handler (West 5 assts 0 turnovers, Mitchell 9 assts 9 turnovers). He's smarter on the court too. Mitchell was supposed to be a starter because he was a great JuCo scorer, but that hasn't worked out. He can't drive at this level, so he's just a sharp shooter and if I'm looking for a sharp shooter to pull from WV's bench, I'll go with West. I see no advantage to having Mitchell in the game over West. Mitchell may have more talent, but talent alone doesn't get the job done.
The Mountaineers still have an open road to their first Big East tournament championship with Notre Dame next and the winner to play either Georgetown or Marquette. Normally I might think it would be good to lose in a conference tournament to get rested and hungry for the NCAA's. However, I just don't have the confidence in a deep WV run no matter what they do, so if they could win their first Big East tournament it would be something special to remember about the season. As for the ND game, when you looked at unranked 7th seeded ND vs #6 nationally WV, who do you think is the better team right now? It's hard for me to say WV. They have the better resume no doubt, but I might have to take my chances against WV instead of ND if I was an opposing team, particularly the way ND has played of late. I'll be interested to see the odds, but I bet the line will be very close. The Mountaineers keep being reinforced that they are doing good things on the court by winning in strange ways, but it will catch up to them sooner or later. Last night they needed a very bad turnover by Cincinnati and a miracle banked in 3 by Butler at the buzzer to win in regulation (the Mountaineers would have had overtime if the shot had not gone in). I kind of felt bad for Cincinnati to lose like that, but onward we go with the Mountaineers. Let's get a good lick in on the Irish before they bolt for the Big 10 here in a couple of years. Good riddance.
On a separate note, as Johnnie West hit the 3 at then end of regulation and was on the court for the end of the game, it got me wondering why he doesn't play more if Huggins thinks he is one of the top 5 offensive players, even coming off the bench ice cold. Compare him to Casey Mitchell who gets some significant minutes in certain games. Mitchell is in the game to shoot, but apparently they have more confidence in West ability to shoot (West 42% from 3, Mitchell 31%). It is obvious Huggins doesn't have much confidence in West's defensive performance, but have you seen Mitchell play defense? Ugh. Honestly, I'd take West's toughness and effort over Mitchell's avoid contact playing style on the defensive end. I also think West is more confident with the ball and thus a better ball handler (West 5 assts 0 turnovers, Mitchell 9 assts 9 turnovers). He's smarter on the court too. Mitchell was supposed to be a starter because he was a great JuCo scorer, but that hasn't worked out. He can't drive at this level, so he's just a sharp shooter and if I'm looking for a sharp shooter to pull from WV's bench, I'll go with West. I see no advantage to having Mitchell in the game over West. Mitchell may have more talent, but talent alone doesn't get the job done.
The Mountaineers still have an open road to their first Big East tournament championship with Notre Dame next and the winner to play either Georgetown or Marquette. Normally I might think it would be good to lose in a conference tournament to get rested and hungry for the NCAA's. However, I just don't have the confidence in a deep WV run no matter what they do, so if they could win their first Big East tournament it would be something special to remember about the season. As for the ND game, when you looked at unranked 7th seeded ND vs #6 nationally WV, who do you think is the better team right now? It's hard for me to say WV. They have the better resume no doubt, but I might have to take my chances against WV instead of ND if I was an opposing team, particularly the way ND has played of late. I'll be interested to see the odds, but I bet the line will be very close. The Mountaineers keep being reinforced that they are doing good things on the court by winning in strange ways, but it will catch up to them sooner or later. Last night they needed a very bad turnover by Cincinnati and a miracle banked in 3 by Butler at the buzzer to win in regulation (the Mountaineers would have had overtime if the shot had not gone in). I kind of felt bad for Cincinnati to lose like that, but onward we go with the Mountaineers. Let's get a good lick in on the Irish before they bolt for the Big 10 here in a couple of years. Good riddance.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Mountaineers Big East tourney preview
When people start talking about "fate" and "destiny" for a team it usually means that they've enjoyed more success than they should and their fans believe the trend will continue. It mostly ends in a rude awakening (it reminds me of my Chargers lone Super Bowl appearance, a blow out loss to the 49ers). So, I won't go there. However, the Mountaineers have seemed to experience good fortune this year. Whether it's winning close games, having a team's best player sit out due to diabetes or being the only bye team who gets to face a double digit seeded opponent, chance has shone brightly on the Mountaineers this year. I like the Mountaineers chances much better against Cincinnati than the zone playing Louisville Cardinals. Huggins has had some struggles against his former team, but if the Mountaineers are the real deal, they should take care of the Bearcats. In the semifinals they could draw an overachieving and overrated Pitt team. The Mounties handled them fairly easily in Morgantown and had them beat in Pittsburgh until a big end of the game let down. I would like their chances there. That is of course if ND doesn't beat Pitt first, which could happen. Even if it did, it would be ND's 3rd game in 3 days and Harangody may begin to tire after coming back from injury. Also, WV would have a little revenge to seek against ND after losing to them in the regular season. So, despite my being hard on this team and continually saying the Mountaineers are overrated, I am going to pick them to make the finals of the Big East tournament. Crazy! If they meet Syracuse, they lose. Otherwise, a Marquette, Villanova, or Georgetown matchup isn't so bad. The team after Syracuse that scared me the most for West Virginia was Louisville, and they were fortunate enough to avoid them. Remember Louisville had them beat in Morgantown until a late game switch to a 1-3-1 defense confounded the Cardinals. I imagine that wouldn't happen again. Now that they have a little clearer path to the finals, it's time to take advantage. A Big East championship could land a #1 seed for the Mounties. Let's go Mountaineers!!!!!
Monday, March 8, 2010
Projections 3/8
DeHaven Projections through 2/18 games (assumes cutoff for at large bids will be two #12 seeds):
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2's Villanova, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St
3's Pittsburgh, Ohio St., BYU, New Mexico
4's Temple, Baylor, Maryland, Wisconsin
5's Michigan St., Gonzaga, Georgetown, Xavier
6's Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Butler, Texas A&M
7's Texas, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Richmond
8's Oklahoma St., Florida St., Louisville, Marquette
9's California, UTEP, Clemson, Notre Dame,
10's Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, UNLV, Wake Forest
11's Florida, Old Dominion, Cornell, Utah St.
12's San Diego St., Seton Hall, Sienna (auto)
On the verge (in order): Georgia Tech, Arizona St., Washington, Memphis, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Illinois, Dayton, Mississippi St., UAB
Big East: 9
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big 10: 4
SEC: 4
MWC: 4
A10: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 6
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2's Villanova, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St
3's Pittsburgh, Ohio St., BYU, New Mexico
4's Temple, Baylor, Maryland, Wisconsin
5's Michigan St., Gonzaga, Georgetown, Xavier
6's Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Butler, Texas A&M
7's Texas, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Richmond
8's Oklahoma St., Florida St., Louisville, Marquette
9's California, UTEP, Clemson, Notre Dame,
10's Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, UNLV, Wake Forest
11's Florida, Old Dominion, Cornell, Utah St.
12's San Diego St., Seton Hall, Sienna (auto)
On the verge (in order): Georgia Tech, Arizona St., Washington, Memphis, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Illinois, Dayton, Mississippi St., UAB
Big East: 9
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big 10: 4
SEC: 4
MWC: 4
A10: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 6
Friday, February 26, 2010
NCAA Projections 2/26
DeHaven Projections through 2/18 games (assumes cutoff for at large bids will be two #12 seeds):
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2's Villanova, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St
3's Georgetown, Ohio St., BYU, New Mexico
4's Temple, Pittsburgh, Texas, Wisconsin
5's Butler, Gonzaga, Baylor, Xavier
6's Maryland, Michigan St., Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
7's Tennessee, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Wake Forest
8's Clemson, Florida St.,Marquette, Richmond
9's Florida, UTEP, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
10's California, Oklahoma St., Louisville, UNLV
11's St. Mary's, Illinois, Cornell, UConn
12's Old Dominion, Rhode Island
On the verge (no order): Mississippi St., Dayton, Charlotte, Siena, San Diego St., UAB, Utah St., Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Arizona St.
Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 5
A10: 4
SEC: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 5
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2's Villanova, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St
3's Georgetown, Ohio St., BYU, New Mexico
4's Temple, Pittsburgh, Texas, Wisconsin
5's Butler, Gonzaga, Baylor, Xavier
6's Maryland, Michigan St., Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
7's Tennessee, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Wake Forest
8's Clemson, Florida St.,Marquette, Richmond
9's Florida, UTEP, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
10's California, Oklahoma St., Louisville, UNLV
11's St. Mary's, Illinois, Cornell, UConn
12's Old Dominion, Rhode Island
On the verge (no order): Mississippi St., Dayton, Charlotte, Siena, San Diego St., UAB, Utah St., Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Arizona St.
Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 5
A10: 4
SEC: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 5
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Mountaineers lose to UConn
The Mountaineers once again fell behind big early in a game (15). I don't know why they continue to dig big holes against good teams, but they were not able to climb out of this one. In the first half WV was outrebounded heavily. If the Mountaineers don't win the glass they are going to lose almost every time. WV rebounded much better in the second half and made a game of it, but couldn't come all the way back. Again Mountaineer foul shooting really hurt (12-23) their chances. Butler had a very poor game overall and that spells trouble considering WV's reliance on him. Ebanks had a fairly strong game with 17 points (7-9 from the filed) and 9 rebounds. In fact, he's scored in double figures six games in a row after scoring ten or more just once in the previous six. Perhaps he is rounding into form after a disappointing start to the season. When I look at the Mountaineers there is really only one thing they do really well - rebound. They can't penetrate and they can't stop the other team from penetrating. Maybe they are underachieving or maybe they are not as talented as we thought at the beginning of the season. Stopping dribble penetration may be a matter of a lack of heart or discipline, but not being able to drive to the bucket is usually a lack of raw talent and quickness. I think that even though the Mountaineers may be an athletic team in some ways, they are not a quick team. I've felt for some time that they were not a top 10 team despite the ranking. I think they'll beat Cincinnati, but lose at home to Georgetown and on the road to Villanova, which would finish them at 22-8 (11-7) and probably more in the 15-20 range where they belong. Depending on how they do in the Big East tournament, they could be anywhere from a 3-6 seed in the NCAA's unless they really surprise me. If they drop below a 3, I think they will be a prime target for an early round upset. They don't have the guard play, quickness, or the foul shooting to be a great tournament team.
Monday, February 22, 2010
NCAA update
I usually start with a take on the Mountaineers because more WV fans read this than Spiders' fans. The Spiders deserve it though. It's not because they won their eighth in a row or because they are now ranked in both polls or that they lead the A-10, all of which are nice of course. It's because they did something I thought not possible - they nearly filled the arena in a non televised game against a mediocre non rival team (GW). Ever since I came to Richmond 10 years ago such a game would have fallen just short of filling the Robins Center halfway up (around 4,500). Saturday night, however, the Spiders drew over 9,000 fans. The most attended game I've seen is when the Spiders hosted WV in an NIT game, but it wasn't close to 9,000. In fact, according to the local paper, it was the highest attended game since hosting Syracuse in a quarterfinal NIT game many moons ago. Have people finally bought into Richmond basketball? I don't know, but I hope so. As for the team, they have a week off before traveling to Xavier, an extremely tough game. Their win streak will be in serious jeopardy. As for the Spiders play, they had a close game against an inferior opponent, something they hadn't done recently. Still, Kevin Anderson remains a man you can count on in the clutch. He had 24 points including the game winning jumper. George Washington's coach said, "The last 8 minutes of the game, it was just Anderson making plays". Many other coaches could say the same this season. The Spiders may only need one more win to get into the tournament (including that A-10 tourney), two should definitely do it.
The Mountaineers handled Providence and Seton Hall as they should, though they fell asleep at the wheel towards the end of the game against Seton Hall. Still it was two wins that keep them in good shape for the double bye. Butler continues to struggle from the free throw line in the clutch, but this time his teammates picked him up. The best news from the week was that Mazzulla was 5-6 from the line. That may be a sign that his shoulder is getting stronger and his touch is coming back. Could he perhaps be hoisting threes come tourney time? We'll see. If not, at least decent foul shooting will allow him to be on the court as an extra ball handler to preserve a lead. Kilicli continues to show flashes of brilliance, but his defense is too aggressive for his slow feet. Ebanks, Jones, and Smith had a nice week to compliment Butler.
Up next is at Connecticut tonight. It's an interesting game because WV has consistently beaten teams down in the standings while struggling against top tier talent. UConn is down in the standings, but has top tier talent and is playing much better since Calhoun has returned the bench. The Huskies will be fighting for the NCAA tourney lives tonight. I expect a close game. I give a slight edge to the Mountaineers.
On a personal note, I look at the rankings and Kentucky (3rd favorite team) is 2nd, WV is 8th, and Richmond is 23rd. It has never been so universally sweet.
Only a family note, my pops would love to chime in on the blog. However, his keyboarding and computer skills are keeping him down. He has tried a couple of times only to fall victim to frustration. So, to the best of my memory, I'll try to relay his thoughts below according to our phone conversation. By the way, he turned a very feisty 52 yesterday. Happy Birthday dad!!!
According to my dad or as many of you know him, Spud - the legend:
I am a huge Bobby Huggins fans. I love listening to the guy and I think he would be great to play for. I know the Mountaineers are ranked 8th, but I still feel like they are underachievers. People want to run Bill Stewart out of town, but he did about as well as could be expected for what he had this year. Huggins has one of the most talented teams at West Virginia and they haven't lived up to it. The most frustrating part is that they don't play defense. Huggins' teams usually, if nothing else, play excellent defense. Bryant doesn't play any defense, Ebanks doesn't play any defense, and Butler commits stupid fouls. I don't see them going very far in the tournament. They rely on Butler way too much in the clutch. They don't shoot free throws well. They say Ebanks may come out next year, but he's not ready. He'd get eaten up. For as good as they could be, they are hard to watch.
The Mountaineers handled Providence and Seton Hall as they should, though they fell asleep at the wheel towards the end of the game against Seton Hall. Still it was two wins that keep them in good shape for the double bye. Butler continues to struggle from the free throw line in the clutch, but this time his teammates picked him up. The best news from the week was that Mazzulla was 5-6 from the line. That may be a sign that his shoulder is getting stronger and his touch is coming back. Could he perhaps be hoisting threes come tourney time? We'll see. If not, at least decent foul shooting will allow him to be on the court as an extra ball handler to preserve a lead. Kilicli continues to show flashes of brilliance, but his defense is too aggressive for his slow feet. Ebanks, Jones, and Smith had a nice week to compliment Butler.
Up next is at Connecticut tonight. It's an interesting game because WV has consistently beaten teams down in the standings while struggling against top tier talent. UConn is down in the standings, but has top tier talent and is playing much better since Calhoun has returned the bench. The Huskies will be fighting for the NCAA tourney lives tonight. I expect a close game. I give a slight edge to the Mountaineers.
On a personal note, I look at the rankings and Kentucky (3rd favorite team) is 2nd, WV is 8th, and Richmond is 23rd. It has never been so universally sweet.
Only a family note, my pops would love to chime in on the blog. However, his keyboarding and computer skills are keeping him down. He has tried a couple of times only to fall victim to frustration. So, to the best of my memory, I'll try to relay his thoughts below according to our phone conversation. By the way, he turned a very feisty 52 yesterday. Happy Birthday dad!!!
According to my dad or as many of you know him, Spud - the legend:
I am a huge Bobby Huggins fans. I love listening to the guy and I think he would be great to play for. I know the Mountaineers are ranked 8th, but I still feel like they are underachievers. People want to run Bill Stewart out of town, but he did about as well as could be expected for what he had this year. Huggins has one of the most talented teams at West Virginia and they haven't lived up to it. The most frustrating part is that they don't play defense. Huggins' teams usually, if nothing else, play excellent defense. Bryant doesn't play any defense, Ebanks doesn't play any defense, and Butler commits stupid fouls. I don't see them going very far in the tournament. They rely on Butler way too much in the clutch. They don't shoot free throws well. They say Ebanks may come out next year, but he's not ready. He'd get eaten up. For as good as they could be, they are hard to watch.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Projections 2/19
DeHaven Projections through 2/18 games (assumes cutoff for at large bids will be two #12 seeds):
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Villanova
2's Duke, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St
3's Georgetown, Temple, BYU, New Mexico
4's Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Texas, Michigan St.
5's Gonzaga, Baylor, Ohio St., Wake Forest
6's Tennessee, Wisconsin, Butler, Texas A&M
7's Northern Iowa, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Xavier
8's Georgia Tech, Florida St., Maryland, Richmond
9's St. Mary's, Old Dominion, Dayton, UNLV
10's Clemson, UTEP, Louisville, Maquette
11's Oklahoma St., Cornell, Rhode Island, Florida
12's California, Illinois
On the verge (no order): Mississippi , Charlotte, Siena, South Florida, UAB, Utah St., Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Miss. St.
Big East: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
A10: 5
SEC: 4
Big 10: 5
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 5
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Villanova
2's Duke, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St
3's Georgetown, Temple, BYU, New Mexico
4's Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Texas, Michigan St.
5's Gonzaga, Baylor, Ohio St., Wake Forest
6's Tennessee, Wisconsin, Butler, Texas A&M
7's Northern Iowa, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Xavier
8's Georgia Tech, Florida St., Maryland, Richmond
9's St. Mary's, Old Dominion, Dayton, UNLV
10's Clemson, UTEP, Louisville, Maquette
11's Oklahoma St., Cornell, Rhode Island, Florida
12's California, Illinois
On the verge (no order): Mississippi , Charlotte, Siena, South Florida, UAB, Utah St., Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Miss. St.
Big East: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
A10: 5
SEC: 4
Big 10: 5
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 5
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Basketball weekend recap
It was a rough week for Mountaineer fans. First they were outclassed at home versus Villanova and then they gave the game away against Pittsburgh. This wasn't the first time the Mountaineers seemed to have a game wrapped up only to see it go to overtime. Seton Hall did the same thing against them earlier in the year. The Mountaineers are not a great foul shooting team and they do not have strong guard play. The combination makes the team susceptible to comebacks. Mazzulla unfortunately can't be on the floor offensively because he has to be one of the worst free throw shooters in the country (37.5%). A big reason for that is his injury, but he would likely only be around 65% even if healthy, which also is not very good. It comes down to Bryant, Butler, and Ebanks handling the ball. Butler has made clutch shots this year, but his two front ends of one and ones weren't close. It was a choke job. The Mountaineers also missed the other front end as well. The most disturbing thing is that they quit rebounding and playing defense down the stretch. Kilicli has not looked very good since his impressive debut and the Mountaineers continue to struggle to get bench production, which is odd since depth seemed to be a strength of the team. Butler is certainly the best scorer, but they seem to rely on him too much, particularly down the stretch. He also continues to commit dumb fouls and then run around the court with his arms up in the air like it was some crazy call when it was really quite an easy call and obvious foul. He has had this fouling issue since early in his career. I actually think that Bryant has to become more of a force on the offensive end, which is a little scary. I don't particularly want him shooting more, but he is one of the few that can penetrate. He needs to drive and dish. Can he do that effectively? I'm not sure, but they need somebody to do that. Still, the bottom line is defense. It must improve. The Mountaineers have dropped into a 3 seed and better gather themselves for a tough stretch run or it will continue to drop. They have not handled the elite competition well this year, so they need a high seed if they want to go deep in the tourney. This week the Mountaineers go to Providence and host Seton Hall. They need to win a couple here because it gets much tougher after that.
The Spiders are ranked for the first time in 24 years (#25). They lead the A-10 at 9-2 and are 20-6 overall with 6 straight wins. I continue to rave about Kevin Anderson. In their blowout win against St. Bonaventure he scored 6 points in 34 minutes, very unimpressive. However, that's the thing about this guy, the bigger the moment the better he is. There was no need for him to take over that game and he is not a stat hog. Gonzalvez is also solid. In many ways the Spiders and Mountaineers are polar opposites. The Spiders shoot it well, have great guard play, but struggle on the glass while the Mountaineers are great on the boards, but struggle shooting and handling the ball. The thing that concerns me is the rebounding. In the Spiders two big recent wins (Temple, Rhode Island) they shot 58%. That's just not going to happen most games. They were heavily outrebounded in both games, which is odd since the Spiders weren't missing many shots. The Spiders have worked their way up around a 7 seed and have a couple of easy games where they must not stumble this week before an extremely difficult finish. They are in great shape for the tournament, but they must close.
The Spiders are ranked for the first time in 24 years (#25). They lead the A-10 at 9-2 and are 20-6 overall with 6 straight wins. I continue to rave about Kevin Anderson. In their blowout win against St. Bonaventure he scored 6 points in 34 minutes, very unimpressive. However, that's the thing about this guy, the bigger the moment the better he is. There was no need for him to take over that game and he is not a stat hog. Gonzalvez is also solid. In many ways the Spiders and Mountaineers are polar opposites. The Spiders shoot it well, have great guard play, but struggle on the glass while the Mountaineers are great on the boards, but struggle shooting and handling the ball. The thing that concerns me is the rebounding. In the Spiders two big recent wins (Temple, Rhode Island) they shot 58%. That's just not going to happen most games. They were heavily outrebounded in both games, which is odd since the Spiders weren't missing many shots. The Spiders have worked their way up around a 7 seed and have a couple of easy games where they must not stumble this week before an extremely difficult finish. They are in great shape for the tournament, but they must close.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Tourney Projections through 2/10
DeHaven Projections through 2/10 games (assumes cutoff for at large bids will be two #12 seeds):
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Villanova
2's Duke, Purdue, West Virginia, Georgetown
3's Kansas St., Texas, BYU, New Mexico
4's Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Michigan St.
5's Temple, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Ohio St.
6's Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Butler, Baylor
7's Texas A&M, Missouri, Xavier, Cornell
8's St. Mary's, Marquette, Virginia Tech, Maryland
9's Georgia Tech, UNLV, Richmond, Mississippi
10's Rhode Island, Dayton, Florida, UAB
11's Siena, Florida St., Louisville, Charlotte
12's California, Clemson
On the verge (no order): Old Dominion, UTEP, Oklahoma St., South Florida, Illinois
Big East: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
A10: 6
SEC: 5
Big 10: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 5
1's Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Villanova
2's Duke, Purdue, West Virginia, Georgetown
3's Kansas St., Texas, BYU, New Mexico
4's Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Michigan St.
5's Temple, Northern Iowa, Tennessee, Ohio St.
6's Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Butler, Baylor
7's Texas A&M, Missouri, Xavier, Cornell
8's St. Mary's, Marquette, Virginia Tech, Maryland
9's Georgia Tech, UNLV, Richmond, Mississippi
10's Rhode Island, Dayton, Florida, UAB
11's Siena, Florida St., Louisville, Charlotte
12's California, Clemson
On the verge (no order): Old Dominion, UTEP, Oklahoma St., South Florida, Illinois
Big East: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
A10: 6
SEC: 5
Big 10: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
Pac 10: 1
Other: 5
NCAA Basketball 2/11
The Mountaineers once again got off to a dismal start, only this time the opponent, Villanova, was to good to allow the Mountaineers to recover from their early trouble. To me the Mountaineers looked outclassed against a top notched team yet again. Two of those games have come at home. West Virginia's remaining games are at Pitt, at Providence, vs Seton Hall, at UConn, vs Cincy, vs Georgetown, at Villanova. It's possible the Mountaineers could have a losing record in those games if they are not really a top 10 team. It will be interesting to see how it plays out because their resume is one of a #2 seed right now, but I feel like they are more of a #4 seed team and it may play out that way if they lose a few of these down the stretch. They just don't seem to have quite enough fire power or an ability to guard to be really dangerous. It's the latter of those two that has continued to perplex me. I suppose they might not be as athletic as I once thought. Wellington Smith is a microcosm of this. A couple of years ago I would have said he was very athletic with high end potential but he would need to learn how to shoot. I remember some of his dunks and blocks bringing comparisons to Joe Alexander. He has turned into a spot up three point shooter. Really? How did that happen? I'm not sure what the answer or if there is one, but for a team ranked in the top 10 much of the year, I find it difficult to be optimistic about a deep tourney run. If nothing else, it would be nice if they swept the Panthers this year. As the chant goes, eat s___ Pitt!
The Spiders won a big road game at Rhode Island. This puts them more around a 8 or 9 seed and solidly in at this point. They continue to be a little weak on the boards and with inside scoring, but their guard play is outstanding. A team with good guard play can be dangerous in the tournament. They don't have the talent to handle a #1 seed should they draw into that 8 or 9 slot, but perhaps a 2 or 3 could go down to the hands of the Spiders. It may be the best team I have seen since coming to Richmond and Kevin Anderson the best player. I've thought that even before the season started, but at 19-6 (8-2) and tied for the conference lead, the results are beginning to back it up. They have 3 relatively easy games coming up (@ St. Bonaventure, vs Fordham, vs GW) before a real tough stretch to finish (@ Xavier, vs Dayton, and @ Charlotte). Hopefully the Spiders can win the next three and then they should really only need one of the final three to feel good about their NCAA chances.
The Spiders won a big road game at Rhode Island. This puts them more around a 8 or 9 seed and solidly in at this point. They continue to be a little weak on the boards and with inside scoring, but their guard play is outstanding. A team with good guard play can be dangerous in the tournament. They don't have the talent to handle a #1 seed should they draw into that 8 or 9 slot, but perhaps a 2 or 3 could go down to the hands of the Spiders. It may be the best team I have seen since coming to Richmond and Kevin Anderson the best player. I've thought that even before the season started, but at 19-6 (8-2) and tied for the conference lead, the results are beginning to back it up. They have 3 relatively easy games coming up (@ St. Bonaventure, vs Fordham, vs GW) before a real tough stretch to finish (@ Xavier, vs Dayton, and @ Charlotte). Hopefully the Spiders can win the next three and then they should really only need one of the final three to feel good about their NCAA chances.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Sports weekend recap
Before moving on to college basketball, I wouldn't be a sports' fan if I didn't mention the Super Bowl. I like Brees and Manning and both teams fine, so I had a hard time pulling for either one of them. I'm glad I didn't post a prediction, because I wouldn't have had the Saints winning, but quirky things happen in the Super Bowl. The decision to go for it on fourth and goal at the end of the first half by the Saints worked out perfectly even though they didn't get it. Manning had no chance to score and the Saints got 3 anyway. The onside kick then changed the whole complexion of the game. Then the Colts set Stover out for a 50+ yarder. They should have sent out our boy McAfee who is much better from long distance. In the end, Manning made a mistake that Brees did not. I still feel like the Colts are the better team and would win 7 out of 10, but they didn't win the one that counted. Manning's legacy is still an interesting one at this point. He will go down as one of the all time greats and perhaps the greatest regular season quarterback, but despite one Super Bowl win his post season results are still not that impressive. Sure, he got to the Colts to the Super Bowl this year, but he only had to beat the 5 and 6 seeds at home (Ravens, Jets) to do it. I hope he wins one or two more because I'm not quite sure he's gotten that "not a big game quarterback" monkey off his back. If I had to take one quarterback in the league right now as my Super Bowl starter, he would be my #5 guy - and I like him; I'm not a hater. Congrats to Brees and the Saints. Brees is a classic case of when something happens that seems bad turns out to be a really good thing. Getting pushed out of San Diego (aka Loserville) gave him the opportunity to win the big one. Good for him.
Back to the hardwood. WV played a terrible first half only to thrash the Johnnies in the second behind ridiculous shooting from Butler (7-7 from 3 point range). Bryant had a poor offensive shooting game, but he had just one turnover which is the most important number for him. The Mounties host Villanova tonight and a win could put them in contention for a #1 seed. Just as importantly it would go a long way to solidifying finishing in the top 4 of the Big East and receiving a double bye in the tournament. It will be an interesting game; we'll see if WVU can hang with one of the best in the nation.
I managed to make it out to the Richmond game Saturday and I'm glad I did. I was able to witness the Spiders spank the Owls and move solidly onto the right side of the bubble. They have a big game at Rhode Island this week, but even if they lose it shouldn't hurt too much. URI is a top 15 RPI team. Anderson continues to impress me. The guy is clutch and just a stud. The Spiders will have him for one more year and if he's on the court then Richmond has a chance.
Back to the hardwood. WV played a terrible first half only to thrash the Johnnies in the second behind ridiculous shooting from Butler (7-7 from 3 point range). Bryant had a poor offensive shooting game, but he had just one turnover which is the most important number for him. The Mounties host Villanova tonight and a win could put them in contention for a #1 seed. Just as importantly it would go a long way to solidifying finishing in the top 4 of the Big East and receiving a double bye in the tournament. It will be an interesting game; we'll see if WVU can hang with one of the best in the nation.
I managed to make it out to the Richmond game Saturday and I'm glad I did. I was able to witness the Spiders spank the Owls and move solidly onto the right side of the bubble. They have a big game at Rhode Island this week, but even if they lose it shouldn't hurt too much. URI is a top 15 RPI team. Anderson continues to impress me. The guy is clutch and just a stud. The Spiders will have him for one more year and if he's on the court then Richmond has a chance.
Friday, February 5, 2010
NCAA Football Signing Day
I thought I'd do a quick take on college football since signing day was this week. ESPN did not have a single team from the Big East in the top 25. Rivals, who I trust a little more when it comes to grading high school football talent, had WV at #19. I still have major questions about Bill Stewart's ability to lead and coach the Mounties, but he appears to be doing a fine job recruiting, really as good as anyone has done at WVU. So, we'll see what the talent brings. Zook had a top recruiting class upon coming to Illinois and his team still stinks because he's a bad coach. There are also teams that don't get that top level talent that are consistently good because of coaching, so I'm not sure how much weight to put on these rankings. I do know this, having a top 25 recruiting class can't hurt. My main concern is that the Big East continues to be lackluster in its recruiting as a conference. After WV, Pitt comes in at 33, Louisville 51, Cincy 59, USF 62, Rutgers 64, Syracuse 78, and UConn 84. Considering that there are 65 teams in the 6 power conferences, that's a pretty poor showing. I do like WV at the top of the Big East, but I wish more talent was coming to the conference. As for WV's class, the four stars recruits included a QB, LB, 2 WR's, and OL. The lone 5 start recruit is a DB, Latwan Anderson who, according to the sites, has only verbally committed to WV. Ryan could probably offer a little more insight if he was willing to lend his time.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
NCAA Basketball Season to date Summary
We are less than 4 weeks away from March and the Madness that will ensue. I look forward to analyzing and predicting the layout of the NCAA tournament. First, however, let's take a look at the season to date of my primary two teams of interest - WVU and UR.
West Virginia is ranked sixth and in line for a #2 seed at this point, so obviously there shouldn't be much to complain about. It certainly makes Mountaineer nation very happy to see them stomp their rivals Pittsburgh last night. Pitt is a little down this year, but that was still a good win. In fact it is their best win outside of an earlier win at home versus Ohio St. This makes me wonder how good West Virginia is and of what they are capable. I would like to consider them a national title contender. Perhaps they are if the pieces fall into place just right. Other results against ranked opponents include a pounding they took to the hands of Purdue at their place and a narrow one point loss to Syracuse at home. However that loss is a little deceiving since Syracuse led by 10 with 1:20 to go and by 6 with just 7 seconds remaining. West Virginia looked outclassed by both of those teams. The Notre Dame loss was a bad one, but I'm willing to throw out one bad game. So, to me it appears that WVU is a solid top 15 team but it remains to be seen if they can handle to the top teams in the land and make a run at a title. I would say no if it were not for the addition of Kilicli. He has now served his suspension and I'm anxious to see what he can do. His stats in his debut were impressive (I did not get to see the game since it was not on in Richmond). I also think that Truck Bryant has really settled down of late and become more reliable with his ball handling and distribution. That has been huge for the Mountaineers. I still have two concerns. The first is that the defense has been a bit disappointing from a Huggins coached team. In fact Louisville appeared to be leaving Morgantown with a win until the Mountaineers changed to a 1-3-1 (coached by Mazzulla) and confused them. I'd like to see the man to man defense improve. Secondly is that they lack slashers. If teams can get up into the faces of the Mountaineers they struggle. On some positive notes, Wellington Smith's three point shooting is a welcome surprise, Kevin Jones is much improved, and Butler seems to finding his stroke lately. So we'll see where they go from here. I'll be disappointed if they miss the sweet 16 and I'm hoping for a trip to the final 4.
Richmond is a bubble team at 17-6. Lunardi has them on the inside of that bubble right now. The team is a bit perplexing and inconsistent. They have some nice wins and questionable losses. They entertain Temple this weekend and go to Rhode Island, a couple of big games for them. Kevin Anderson is a terrific point guard (if he were on the Mountaineers, WV would be in much better shape), Gonzalvez is a nice 2 though he is very streaky, and Harper has been more consistent with scoring this year and improved on his strength inside to go with his 6-8 frame. Butler gives them good reliable minutes. The pleasant surprise and big disappointment have come at the same position, center. Dan Geriot was returning from a redshirt year with big expectations. He was supposed to be the missing piece to put the team over the top since he lead the team in scoring and rebounding two years ago. He has been a shell of his former self. However, Darrius Garrett has stepped up and been impressive. He is a shot blocking force and moves well defensively. Offensively he's much improved from his freshman season but still has a long way to go to be a threat inside. Who gets the majority of the minutes should depend on the matchup the opponent presents as Geriot still has superior offensive skills. I like the look of the team more with Garrett on the floor, however. I will be disappointed if the Spiders miss the tournament, but it could go either way right now. The A-10 is solid with 3 teams (Temple, Rhode Island, Xavier) almost assured of a bid and another 3 (Dayton, Charlotte, Richmond) aiming for a bid. The Spiders have to make it happen down the stretch. If they can get in, the Spiders could make some noise in the tournament considering their strong guard play.
Weekend games:
WV @ St. Johns - I would think the Mountaineers would not have much problems there.
UR vs Temple - I plan on attending this game, it's a big game and a measuring stick for the team. I think they come up with a big win.
West Virginia is ranked sixth and in line for a #2 seed at this point, so obviously there shouldn't be much to complain about. It certainly makes Mountaineer nation very happy to see them stomp their rivals Pittsburgh last night. Pitt is a little down this year, but that was still a good win. In fact it is their best win outside of an earlier win at home versus Ohio St. This makes me wonder how good West Virginia is and of what they are capable. I would like to consider them a national title contender. Perhaps they are if the pieces fall into place just right. Other results against ranked opponents include a pounding they took to the hands of Purdue at their place and a narrow one point loss to Syracuse at home. However that loss is a little deceiving since Syracuse led by 10 with 1:20 to go and by 6 with just 7 seconds remaining. West Virginia looked outclassed by both of those teams. The Notre Dame loss was a bad one, but I'm willing to throw out one bad game. So, to me it appears that WVU is a solid top 15 team but it remains to be seen if they can handle to the top teams in the land and make a run at a title. I would say no if it were not for the addition of Kilicli. He has now served his suspension and I'm anxious to see what he can do. His stats in his debut were impressive (I did not get to see the game since it was not on in Richmond). I also think that Truck Bryant has really settled down of late and become more reliable with his ball handling and distribution. That has been huge for the Mountaineers. I still have two concerns. The first is that the defense has been a bit disappointing from a Huggins coached team. In fact Louisville appeared to be leaving Morgantown with a win until the Mountaineers changed to a 1-3-1 (coached by Mazzulla) and confused them. I'd like to see the man to man defense improve. Secondly is that they lack slashers. If teams can get up into the faces of the Mountaineers they struggle. On some positive notes, Wellington Smith's three point shooting is a welcome surprise, Kevin Jones is much improved, and Butler seems to finding his stroke lately. So we'll see where they go from here. I'll be disappointed if they miss the sweet 16 and I'm hoping for a trip to the final 4.
Richmond is a bubble team at 17-6. Lunardi has them on the inside of that bubble right now. The team is a bit perplexing and inconsistent. They have some nice wins and questionable losses. They entertain Temple this weekend and go to Rhode Island, a couple of big games for them. Kevin Anderson is a terrific point guard (if he were on the Mountaineers, WV would be in much better shape), Gonzalvez is a nice 2 though he is very streaky, and Harper has been more consistent with scoring this year and improved on his strength inside to go with his 6-8 frame. Butler gives them good reliable minutes. The pleasant surprise and big disappointment have come at the same position, center. Dan Geriot was returning from a redshirt year with big expectations. He was supposed to be the missing piece to put the team over the top since he lead the team in scoring and rebounding two years ago. He has been a shell of his former self. However, Darrius Garrett has stepped up and been impressive. He is a shot blocking force and moves well defensively. Offensively he's much improved from his freshman season but still has a long way to go to be a threat inside. Who gets the majority of the minutes should depend on the matchup the opponent presents as Geriot still has superior offensive skills. I like the look of the team more with Garrett on the floor, however. I will be disappointed if the Spiders miss the tournament, but it could go either way right now. The A-10 is solid with 3 teams (Temple, Rhode Island, Xavier) almost assured of a bid and another 3 (Dayton, Charlotte, Richmond) aiming for a bid. The Spiders have to make it happen down the stretch. If they can get in, the Spiders could make some noise in the tournament considering their strong guard play.
Weekend games:
WV @ St. Johns - I would think the Mountaineers would not have much problems there.
UR vs Temple - I plan on attending this game, it's a big game and a measuring stick for the team. I think they come up with a big win.
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